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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (156637)	4/18/2020 6:09:50 AM
From: Dr. Voodoo	1 Recommendation Recommended By pak73 Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217574

twitter.com If need event for full spectrum margin calling this seems about right. Surely need more fish on Monday? Have not asked or reviewed TJ position on HK? Let’s hope that current Vacation wasn’t fortuitous in other ways. Seems more geopolitical cannon fodder than kinetics at this point,,, but surely do not wish for comeuppance any time soon.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (156637)	4/18/2020 6:27:19 AM
From: sense	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217574

Haven't looked at the currencies... but still don't see anything out there other than gold and silver challenging the dollar for strength in the near future. The DOW chart doesn't look in the least bit threatening. Doesn't mean the wheels won't come off if another black swan type event occurs... and there are plenty of those lurking out there. The driver of the Repo problem hasn't gone away... and the issue has only gotten worse, last I looked. The same is true of the disconnect between the COMEX/LBMA delivery capacity versus demand for delivery... which is another disconnect that lurched into public perception as an oddity, recently, but continues to widen from a crack into a crevice... soon perhaps a crevasse. Has received far too little comment... that the moves made by the Fed and the government in the current crisis, thus far, have "worked"... Far too soon to make that claim about real impact in the economy, but not too soon to note they've captured people's focus, and changed expectations. Stepping in front of the speeding train, they appear to have stopped the market decline, mid correction. People appear increasingly convinced. This week officialdom have begun going out on the limb while making the claim that "its over"... while shifting focus from "the market decline" to "optimism we'll go back to work soon". That expectation appears it contains its own set of risks, of course... but, I think it has captured control of the narrative and probably controls the timing issues, for now... To succeed, it requires a lot of things to go right, and to do that very quickly... That's a shift in focus that has been accomplished by crossing a lot of bright lines in the economy, though... only taking us further away from free market ideals, deeper into the "managed outcome" economy... and, of course, done at considerable expense... If it works, and continues to work... mostly what it does is attempt to differentiate the virus impacts from the financial problems... The virus obviously is a real enough impact, having shut down the global economy. To have it be considered on its own merit... is not intrinsically problematic... but to expect that will work to suspend market recognition of "the problem" ? There is a key change there, too... as the problem in a massively deflationary policy in QE is suddenly reversed into a massively inflationary policy... That shift alters the stresses... and rebalances them... but what it doesn't do is correct the accumulated damage imposed by having sustained that policy for a couple decades. That's not me saying the wheels aren't going to come off... its just suggesting that the policy changes have had an impact... even if unintended... making it a lot less likely that it will happen this week... The costs of dealing with the virus... provide reasonable cover for the papering over of other problems... but, as before, making that choice is still only masking them while growing them ever larger...