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To: username who wrote (1064)1/28/1998 8:43:00 PM
From: Maverick  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1629
 
MFS founder plots
big IP net

By Tim Greene
Network World, 1/26/98

Omaha, Neb. - Level 3
Communications, Inc. is betting
billions that when it comes to
delivering data, voice, and video IP is
it.

While the industry at large is still
trying to figure out what it will mean
long-term, the group of veterans at
this start-up says there is just one
network for the future - the Internet.

Level 3 promises to offer IP data
services in six cities this year,
expanding to 60 cities by 2001. Voice
and video services, as well as
quality-of-service (QOS)
guarantees will come in about two
years, according to the company's
CEO, James Crowe.

Level 3 boasts plans for a
20,000-mile fiber-optic network in
the U.S., transoceanic cables and
foreign networks, and is blessed with very deep pockets. So the
company will be a force to be reckoned with whether its vision is
right or wrong.

There is another reason to listen to Level 3, Crowe and Kiewit
Diversified Group, with roots in mining and construction,have
done it before. They combined to build MFS Communications,
Inc. from the ground up as the first major competitive local
carrier. Started with $500 million in Kiewitt funding, MFS sold
for $14 billion in 1996.

Part of the Level 3 promise: network infrastructure costs so low
that it can ignite a price war with the established phone
companies, analysts said.



To: username who wrote (1064)1/28/1998 8:45:00 PM
From: Maverick  Respond to of 1629
 
MFS, Prt II
''It's going to be a wonderful free-for-all,'' said Frank
Dzubeck, president of Communications Network Architects, Inc.,
a Washington, D.C. consultancy.

It is uncertain what Level 3 will charge customers, but ''the
pricing differential will be so astronomic that the established
carriers will have to react,'' Dzubeck said. ''These guys are
really going to have an impact.''

Dzubeck said it costs an IP service provider a mil _ one
one-thousandth of a cent _ to offer a minute of long-distance
voice service. The cost for a traditional phone company is more
like 2 cents.

MFS II?

Under the Level 3 model, customers will buy not dial tone, but
Web-tone access to an IP network. The backbone of that
network will be all fiber, guaranteeing ample bandwidth to bear
scores of gigabits per second of user traffic.

Traffic among destinations on the Level 3 network could be
assured QoSesbecause Level 3 would have control of the entire
network being used. Traffic traveling to other carriers' networks
for destinations off the Level 3 network might or might not
support those QoSes, he said. For some destinations, traffic
might use the public Internet, where today no service quality can
be guaranteed.

Business-quality voice will probably not be ready until 1999, he
said.

A service based on the most inexpensive backbone can still be
costly, said Bill Homa, communications director for Hannaford
Bros. and Co., a supermarket chain based in Scarborough,
Maine, which is looking at ATM to anchor its network.

''The key is who controls the local loop. If you have multiple
locations, it's going to be expensive if you have to use the local
loop for access,'' Homa said.

Level 3 will pay those access fees except where Level 3 can run
fiber directly to the customer, Crowe said. But he would not say
what impact access fees would have on pricing, which is still
being worked out.



To: username who wrote (1064)1/28/1998 8:46:00 PM
From: Maverick  Respond to of 1629
 
MFS, Part III
However, he did say flat rates would be available for users who
want it, as well as usage-based billing.

Not your father's Internet

Level 3 is the most well-funded domestic player among new IP
carriers, but the boldest is CTR Group, Ltd. CTR has started up
Project Oxygen, a plan to circle the globe with nearly 200,000
miles of fiber-optic cable to support a Super Internet that will
support all services (NW, Jan. 19, page 12).

Smaller regional carriers that follow the same model are
sprouting up, too, including XCOM Technologies, Inc. in
Cambridge, Mass. It could affiliate itself with companies such as
Level 3 to offer IP QoS over a wider geographic area.



To: username who wrote (1064)1/29/1998 6:37:00 PM
From: Maverick  Respond to of 1629
 
Merger, Part III
Already Cabletron and 3Com are worlds apart from a competitive
perspective. How often do you hear of Cabletron in the commodity
modem or adapter markets, which represent an overwhelming
majority of 3Com's business? While Cabletron and Bay often
compete, as do 3Com and Bay, the real unifying force in this market
is Cisco.

Further, we already know that the traditional
datacom outsiders, such as Alcatel, Lucent,
Nortel, Siemens, Nokia and NEC, are sniffing
around the internetworking space and have
already begun to snap up the smaller fish (look
at Nokia buying up IP Switching creator
Ipsilon). It is only a matter of time before one of these firms decides
to move up the food chain.

Their goal isn't necessarily to dominate the LAN market, but to
leverage the LAN and routing/switching technologies with their
own datacom and WAN technologies (again, see Nokia and
Ipsilon). The rumor mill has recently linked Cabletron with Nortel
and Bay with Lucent. Yes, just rumors, but you have to admit that
they do make a bit of sense. Not many in the industry would be
surprised or disappointed if these turned out to be self-fulfilling
rumors.

Now I've been in the market long enough to know that there are no
"sure" things, except for perhaps death, taxes and the combination
of the two: estate taxes. So I wouldn't be surprised if there wasn't
a bit (perhaps a lot) of disagreement over my predictions or my
logic. On the other hand, what good are predictions if everybody
agrees? In fact, when everybody does agree, that's when I start to
get worried. So what do you think?



To: username who wrote (1064)1/29/1998 6:40:00 PM
From: Maverick  Respond to of 1629
 
Merger, Part IV
Tom Anderson - 04:19pm Jan 22, 1998 EST (#1 of 2)

I don't know why the uproar to Fred's original predictions. In light of this
week's consortium announcement by MFST, CPQ and INTC, I think he
should write a third column entitled "Then There Were Two".

The clout these three have in the marketplace, not to mention the cash to
back their play, matches the potential economic rewards of broadband
communications over the Internet. It's a direct challenge to the telecos
and their POTS, particularly with last week's announcement out of Omaha
re an IPO called Level 3 built around a new, nationwide fiber optic network
that would seriously challange the need for much of the Fab Four's
products.

Everyone is vying to be a part of the consortium, including PAIR with its
continuous connection DMT modem. The ISPs and cable companies have
to be sweating because they cannot meet the public's demand for speed
and bandwidth. Bay is vunerable and Lucent has announced it WILL be a
part of the action. Wintel wants Lucent on the team, if for no other reason
of its reputation and ability to deliver product. INTC would love a BAY/LU
combo because David House is kin and a known entity.

Siemans and Noika are not going to concede Europe to Gates, so
Cabletron and 3Com are in play. That leaves Cisco to evolve into
something new, and they certainly have the cash, management and market
support to do it.

I'd like Fred's take on this. I feel he owes us a revisit to his predictions in
light of this week's consortium announcement. Please!!!