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Strategies & Market Trends : Option Strategies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sm1th who wrote (2110)	5/6/2020 8:32:59 PM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 2591

Hi Sm1th, Good move, I'm really relieved to see the states not only open up, but but more of them open up faster and more broadly. Just as this thing snowballed down hill, so to will it recover. All things with momentum take time to reach maximum mass. I've been way too early in getting into energy , but I knew it was a long term opportunity. All the hype about EV's and renewables being cheaper than fossil fuel. It was a bubble based on falsehoods. The internal combustion engine was going to be eliminated by EV's? Never mind the fastest growing middle classes are in low income countries and that demand was always aimed at ICE's. Natural gas IS the only thing that has reduced our carbon footprint. Plastics grow at 150% of the population growth. The population growth is in the emerging markets. Fossil fuels will not disappear, they will prevail over decades. To buy them with the long term in mind, I think is conservative. Lord knows I did not anticipate a pandemic demand side reduction, and I did think that we were pushing supply harder than we should, but too much debt and reduced commodity prices did create a commodity death spiral. When it comes to fossil fuel pricing - EVEN NEGATIVE PRICING, well this one is for the history books. Am I ok if I wait out a year of three. You bet. Semi's in 2000, Banks in 2008 energy in 2016 and 2020. Well depletion and Capex reductions guarantee a pricing scenario that covers the cost of the next marginal barrel of oil to be harvested - some time out into the future. I think it will be slow at first, but gain momentum, and rational allocation of resources will once again become the norm. Just common sense with an understanding that it may take time, while we're being paid unbelievably well by solid balance sheet companies, who's loyalty to the stockholders is incredible! The yields are getting scary, yet the yield with a 50% cut in the dividend is still good. I'm hoping the pricing returns quicker than the loyalty runs out. Either way, it will normalize, it just may take longer. Thanks for the trade info - always good to hear others market experiences. Let's hope they get assigned and pay us dividends till we're pushing up daisies! <smile> Bob