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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (157898)	5/14/2020 12:22:48 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217592

Re <<How is the Hong Kong residential housing market? If values collapse next 6-12 months will be a global debt cleansing depression for sure..>> Anecdotal / media mix reads: (1) Landlords gave partial rent holidays in response to commercial tenants' requests, say 1/3 off for 3-4 months. Vacancy must be avoided if at all possible. (2) New office leases ~25-30% down, from peak (not a lot of rentals at peak rent due to timing / staggering, and HK rent can rise 10+% early from term to term, generally 2 years-term) (3) New retail rent went down 20-30%, from peak (ditto above re 'peak') (4) Residential rent went down ~5% from peak etc etc (5) I do not believe the debt / bank shall become an issue, because real estate mortgage pervasively at 30-50% of transaction value whenever transaction took place, and second mortgages are relatively rare. Interest rate is low, given the HK$ : US$ peg (thus interest rate similar w/ USA) (6) Personally do not have mortgage (hardly ever had mortgage by habit, and even when had mortgage, of the 7-10 years-term variety, iow stop-gap). Question to be considered, if and when to buy, or when to take out mortgage in order to buy some equity (7) The general health of HK real estate can use 0016.hk as indicator, being the largest landlord / developer of offices, malls, residential finance.yahoo.com , and we are near 2016 levels for the stock, after the protests / riots, virus, tourism down, etc etc - not too bad all considered (8) Upside? across the valley may be ("GBA") Greater Bay en.wikipedia.org Initiative scmp.com kicking in which emphasises a few sectors including finance and biotech, and in the meantime too many ways to lose money so best not to fidget too much, especially as GMA hooks into Belt & Road Initiative ("BRI") en.wikipedia.org bloomberg.com Worst Is Over for Hong Kong Property Prices, Citigroup Says Shawna Kwan 5 May 2020, 05:23 GMT+2 The worst is likely over for Hong Kong’s residential real estate market and home prices should resume their upward trajectory from this month to rise as much as 10% by the end of the year. That’s according to Citigroup Inc., which also said in a report dated May 4 that now is a good time for investors to buy the shares of Hong Kong retail landlords on expectations of a pick up in consumer activity. Developers that look attractive are Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd. and New World Development Co., while landlords in the bank’s sights include Hang Lung Properties Ltd. and Wharf Real Estate Investment Co. Home sales in the city have started to rebound as the spread of coronavirus comes under control. Last weekend was the best weekend for secondary apartment sales since 2013 as buyer confidence returned, according to Centaline Property Agency Ltd. A shortage of suitable land on which to build housing, teamed with low borrowing costs, has also long put a floor under Hong Kong’s real estate market, ensuring prices are well supported. “Back in February, buyers thought prices could slump and were looking for discounts of up to 20%,” said Kenneth Lam, a senior sales director at Centaline who oversees the west Kowloon area popular because of its good transport links. “A month or two later, they realized that strategy wasn’t going to work when transaction volumes kept rising.” Property prices in the secondary market have declined just 1.3% since the start of the year, Centaline data show. That’s despite the Covid-19 outbreak coming on the back of months-long pro-democracy protests. From June through December, they slipped 4.4%. “Due to strong memory of SARS in 2003 and the 2008 global credit crisis and Hong Kong home prices rebounding strongly after, a lot of potential buyers are likely to get in as interest rates are expected to be staying low for a long time,” Citigroup analysts led by Ken Yeung wrote.