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Strategies & Market Trends : The Financial Collapse of 2001 Unwinding -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (5596)	5/18/2020 5:44:39 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	1 Recommendation Recommended By bull_dozer Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13798

There's more to a viral cycle than a game of tag between humans. In large metropolitan cities like Los Angeles 4.5% of the population has been infected, which is so far below the 66% to 80% for herd immunity it's laughable. Without a vaccine we're unlikely to be near the end of this infection. Pandemics end in a number of different ways and only really lethal pandemics end suddenly because they run out of hosts. Like Measles this virus is not very lethal, so the number of people each person infects is relatively high. Measles has an Ro of something like 18 (unchecked each infected person infects an average of 18 people) and fortunately this is virus closer to 2 or less - but that number is more guess than fact. There's certain to be more wild and domesticated hosts than we know about beyond bats, cats and tigers - and these wild hosts add to the cycles of pandemics. The theory I favor is most pandemics which jump species end when the virus mutates into a form which can co-exist with it's hosts like coronavirus which cause colds. This mutation and selection takes time, especially given the fact that this virus is mutating very slowly relative to influenza. People who say they know what happens next, know nothing at all.