Frosty,.....observations of a tape watcher..... .
( and my interpretations, with assist from Ouija Software board).
-Last 3 weeks volatility has lessened.
-Price down swings last a shorter period of time. ( All this compared
to 2-7 months ago ).
-When a large disproportion occurred between the ask:bid ratio, such as 99:10, 56:15,46:12, etc, unlike past times, this did not drop the price. I feel that in that unlike the past, Vivus longs are now more confident to hold rather than sell as before.
-Current price down-swings are only +/- 20% of what they were in past.
-In spite of drop off of 1 - 2 16ths in price at the end of the day today there was no severe weakening of the price, as would have occurred in past with drops of 1- 1.5 points in price.
All of above point to a greater confidence of Vivus longs, IMHO, to hold, and more fear on part of shorts to short further.Following the forthcoming AD campaign I suspect the shorts will be intimidated by..... 50 mill+ Americans, potential Vivus longs,who will come demanding to buy the stock nest week.
-I note the decline in short interest.This is the first in 10 months. It indicates that shorts are beginning to have doubts, GG, and are starting to cover as well.
-one can say that this scenario is contrived.As Hillary sharply observed today, this is a right wing, or in this case a short-wing , cospiracy. Well considering all the institutions now holding Vivus, it would imply that all these diverse folks suddenly have organized themselves into one highly coordinated force, acting in unison, towards a common, " sell ", final goal. And that they've been able to do this, for the past month, through thick and thin Asian mess. I find this much harder to believe than the other explanation so well outlined by +mkilloran in post #5047 above.
-The more and the faster Vivus price increases in the near term, the greater the degree/intensity of short coverage will be. This will provide a good price support for Vivus. ( who'd ever thought that our shorty-brothers would be supporting Vivus price one day? gg ).
-today Vivus ws up only 1/4 point, or about 1/2 point at a time that the general market appeared to be having a party. In the past, this would have caused a 1.5 or 2 point drop in Vivus. Not now. In fact....
-Between ~ 1400-1500, Vivus barely traded at all. It indicates that
Vivus longs were watching to see if this was a party they would want to be in, and thus, by implication leave the Vivus party.Well, it didn't happen.What they saw was an anemic party.this time 1-2 years ago we aould be in the full of swings, Intel up 8 poinmts, IBM up 7 points, etc you get the point.Instead DOW was up an anemic 130 points, it peaked out the rat hole, didn't see it's shadow and crawled right back in the hole. Stocks up a measly ~ +/- 1-2.5 points each. It felt almost like the start of a funeral service to me. Soon a keg this yeae big will explode in Asia. El Presidente is going to have to answer some questions.Good bye support for Indonesia.It may be sink or swim for them now, and you'll see all kinds of fat rats swimming in the Indonesian Archipelago not to mention the sea of Japan. Nikkei 7000? during the washout? ( consider buying Sony, Fujitsu,Toyota at this time, with part of Vivus sale proceedings GG).
So this was not a grreat party. The life of the party is gone, IBM, T,
Oracle,Intel, even Microsoft. They all declined the invitation and are
back to the drawing boards; all worried about Asia, this and that.
-So were does that leave Vivus longs? Well we know that drugs , tobacco, fast foods,and cheap entertainment is were people go during the slow times ahead. A nice beer, a show and then....MUSE gg.We'll plan how to buy anew car, computer , house, fridge etc, next year, when the times are better.
Let's see what.... the ?new President will do first. ( as soon as 2-3 weeks from now, if we engage the warp-speed gear that has been so much in fashion the last 10 years).
TA
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