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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: brian h who wrote (7661)	1/27/1998 10:41:00 PM
From: Shi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Gong Xi Fa Cai, Brian H.! But the year of tiger could be ugly for East Asia. I just picked up three news items in one issue of China News Digest (http://www.cnd.org), you'll see how bad it can be. "[CND, 01/23/98] The Xinhua news agency reported that 270,000 textile workers, nearly 50% of its 550,000 entire payroll in Shanghai, were laid off in 1997. This year China will continue to reduce its state-owned textile work force by 600,000, AFP reported. " "China's overheated economy shows signs of slowing down, with an increasing number of layoffs at poorly-performing state industries. Several factors, such as a projected slower growth of exports, a fall in foreign investment, and a surge in unemployment, make the non-convertible yuan a likely candidate for depreciation, says the report." (report being South China Morning Post) "Troubled Waters for China's Shipbuilding Industry [CND, 01/22/98] During the long years when the economies of Japan and Korea were booming and their currencies were among the strongest in the world, China gradually became economically attractive as a site for so-called cheap offshore labor and inexpensive shipbuilding. Now with the weakening of the Korean won and the fluctuating Japanese yen, China has found itself in uncertain waters, its rising ship building industry threatened by a more competitive market, said the China Daily on Tuesday." Forgive me for sounding as pessimistic as Ramsey, but the driving force of Chinese economy--the private/semi-private sectors which provide the growth and support the money-losing state-enterprises, will likely take a hit because of the devaluation of other Asian currencies. Whether it translates a devaluation of its own currency, I don't know. But what are the other options when you have one leg already broken (state-enterprises) and the other (private sector) weakening? I am not saying this will affect QCOM that much because China is still a relative small customer for QCOM (at the moment), but will any turmoil in China create a psychological effect that prolong the crisis in SEA and (coupled with a potential presidential crisis in U.S.) ultimately adversely affect the U.S. stock market as a whole? I am getting nervous each day. Shi