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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: geewiz who wrote (13517)	1/27/1998 10:56:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 18056

Art, I agree with you that there is over capacity in the semi industry. How many industries can sustain capital expenditures exceeding 20% of sales for three or more years consecutively? I think that this cycle will end up with fab closures and resizing (which will go overboard) and than a boom may restart when shrtages appear again. For the time being, I think that the decline in this sector is at hand (we will probably get a second month of BTB under 1, but not by much) and will continue (as the turnips have indicated since late last year) until about the end of February to the Ides of March. Then I expect a spirited spring rally, but I do not see the real bottom until real doom and gloom reigns, probably in June. This of course, is just a turnip truck driver's opinion, and wiser prognosticators believe the end is already at hand. Zeev Zeev