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Strategies & Market Trends : Dividend investing for retirement -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bruwin who wrote (32816)	6/5/2020 2:30:00 AM
From: Elroy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34328

This company, currently, looks in Bad Shape based on its current TTM numbers It is a junk debt laden producer of a commodity (fertilizer). If the fertilizer price goes up, the stock will respond accordingly. If not, the stock will do miserably - perhaps - it's already far below previous lows. The previous low during three years of poor performance was about $2.50. It's not half of that price, and I don't think today is worse for the fertilizer industry than it was then. From calendar Q4 2018 to Q3 2019 UAN paid out 40 cents in distributions. This was because the price of fertilizer wan meaningfull higher than in the preceding three years (when UAN paid out a total of 2 cents over more than 12 quarters). I was hopefully the fertilizer industry had bottomed, absorbed previous capacity expansions, and the price of fertilizer (and UAN) would grow from there. But....things didn't turn out like that. The fertilizer price fell back down in Q4 2019 and has stayed low. Going forward, it's really all about the fertilizer sales price. I don't know enough about fertilizer industry demand and fertilizer supply expansion plans of competitors to make an educated guess about what's likely to happen.