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Technology Stocks : Creative Labs (CREAF) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vanni Resta who wrote (9134)	1/28/1998 12:38:00 AM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13925

Vanni, Shazam!! I agree. We saw some momentum investors bid upthe stock before earnings IMO, and then leave after earnings were released. And technically guys/gals we have to be realistic. We are currently in a downward chart pattern on CREAF having crossed over the 50-day MA line in early December. So any rally currently should be snuffed by that trendline area (which is around $20.50/share currently) until the trendline flattens and then turns up. That's the bad news. And now the good news. We are now IMO in our third test of the $16/share area for CREAF since we crossed over the 50-day MA in early December. We held the $16/share area both times before- and I saw nothing in the earnings report which would suggest that we will not "hold the line" again. We are building a nice bottom here on CREAF, getting ready for a late year runup in the stock after we clear the air in Asia a bit more, and after the Clinton fol-du-rol resolves itself later this year one way or the other. And note- the technical pattern of CREAF is clearly improving- still negative,on the whole, yes, but moving back toward a neutral reading- maybe say in about 5-7 more weeks. Now two more things. I suggest using that $16-20.50/share channel currently in all of your investment decisions with CREAF for the next 5-10 weeks. Also do not forget that the stock market does not focus upon current conditions per se when valuing a stock. It actually looks six months out and "down the road" at what economic conditions will be in the future. God may have said to Moses "I am what I am" out of that burning bush in the Sinai Desert- but the gods of the stock market work in the future, and not present tense. Hence rephrased for the stock market: "I will be what I will be." And the Robert Stephenson Report cited above just gave us all a good idea at least of what one brokerage house thinks"will be" for CREAF six months down the road. Finaslly guys/gals I work with Joe Dancy on the Lonestar Growth Investor Newsletter. We look just at small caps. From the numerous stocks that I have been watching, you can see a pattern at least in the small cap techs, of a consistently improving technical pattern. in fact I may "stick my neck out" here and assert that small caps will lead the market in percentage gain when things pick up later this year. Take a lookat some of our analyses @ members.aol.com There are some extreme and I mean extreme undervaluations here. Consider e.g., SECX and SEMX (SEMX just barely falls under our screening criteria but is a good stock).....Check 'em out while waiting for CREAF's chart pattern to improve.... Meanwhile don't get upset with CREAF- it is a quality tech stock. But day traders are going to beat long-term investors in this stock for another two months or so- but by year end do not be surprised if that situation reverses itself, and long-term investors make the money here..... If you doubt yourself- check out the price on the July 17.5 call option- currently you can sell it for $3.75/shares, or 22.5%+ over today's closing price for locking your CREAF stock for just 1/2 year.... Do you think professional option traders offer those sorts of premiums for dog stocks? And would you hold a stock if you could get a 22.5% rebate in six months, and then perhaps another 22.5% rebate again in the second six months of the year? That surely reduces your risk in holding this stock.... Just one person's opinion - long on CREAF Sincerely, Doug F.