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Biotech / Medical : Neopath (NPTH) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank Buck who wrote (104)	1/28/1998 12:25:00 AM
From: Sigmund	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 178

I assume we will know by 5pm re the advisory panel. IMO earnings will be very bad. I don't think they made any new sales in the U.S. at least none were announced as far as I know. They I assume delivered the SKB systems or at least some of them. In the past, they depended on Japan and that sounds problematical to me. Here is how I see it: If they get a recommendation for approval which I assume they will, the stock goes up to $18 Thursday morning but then backs off when their earnings are released (Thursday morning? after the close?) and people consider the prospects for ever achieving profitability. A 25% sort rate might not be enough to convince the labs to install the system. In that case they need to go back in with another modification, delay, and additional risk of being rejected. If they don't get recommended for approval, the stock drops like a rock. There is a lot of stock out there and no liquidity. On an expected value basis it might be a good play but quite frankly it is clear that I don't have the guts for this which is why I got driven out.