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Strategies & Market Trends : The Financial Collapse of 2001 Unwinding -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: arun gera who wrote (5767)6/20/2020 1:53:42 AM
From: elmatador  Respond to of 13796
 
China is not going to be the next Argentina and Venezuela.

But its debt load, already high for an emerging market, is even higher due to the coronavirus. As an emerging market, which China likes to remind the world that it still is, China is the most indebted. When you don’t own at least one of the world’s most used currencies, then it becomes harder to finance those debts. Will it all just go away?

Why China’s Coronavirus Debt Crisis Is A Problem



Kenneth Rapoza Senior Contributor

I write about business and investing in emerging markets.

GETTY IMAGESChina is not going to be the next Argentina and Venezuela. But its debt load, already high for an emerging market, is even higher due to the coronavirus. As an emerging market, which China likes to remind the world that it still is, China is the most indebted. When you don’t own at least one of the world’s most used currencies, then it becomes harder to finance those debts. Will it all just go away?

Excessive debt is usually held up as one of the reasons to be bearish China. That was the case in a pre-trade war pre-pandemic world, and it is still the case now.

China knew the U.S. investor was concerned and wanted to open its bond market to them, so they started deleveraging in 2017 to give London and Wall Street bond lords the sense that they understood fiscal responsibility.

Then came the Wuhan outbreak in December, which led to a global health crisis and serious talk of decoupling certain supply chains from China. China has to protect its locals from a pandemic, now it has to protect them from the economic fallout. The shock is too big for them to prioritize deleveraging, says Natixis researchers led by Alicia Garcia-Herrero in Hong Kong in their daily China Hot Topics brief today.

Natixis thinks Beijing concern about its debt have constrained their response to the Covid-19 fallout. China’s stimulus measures has increased debt, especially corporate debt. If nominal growth (through real growth or inflation or both) is back soon, debt sustainability will be less of an issue, they say.

In the meantime, China’s total debt to GDP jumped 11 percentage points in the first quarter to 258%.

Most of the increase came from the corporate sector, excluding China’s municipal financing vehicles, which is a can of worms.

Corporate debt to GDP hit 129% in the first quarter. China bank’s corporate loans rose to 81.1% of GDP from 76.4% and corporate bond issuance reached 18.4% in the first from 16.4% at the end of 2019. Off balance sheet lending, or shadow banking, seems to have been reduced.

Compared with corporate debt expansion, the rise in government debt was less significant. Government debt to GDP went from 38.5% to 41% in the first. Off-balance sheet public debt is much harder to estimate as borrowing by the local government financing vehicles at the muni level and other public sector players outside of the tier one and tier two cities are hard to track. Based on bond issuance alone, Natixis estimates only a moderate increase in off-balance sheet financing by local governments, so that’s a positive.

Keep in mind, China would love to one day sell those bonds to the U.S.

Unlike the U.S., where Treasury bonds are sold to governments around the world, China does not have a willing and large buyer of renminbi (RMB) bonds yet, but it is surely growing.

Barclays, Bloomberg and the FTSE emerging market bond indexes have increased their weightings in China bonds, mostly all them in high grade corporates that have been around for ever.

Xi Jinping knows China cannot come across as being unfriendly to global securities markets. In fact, the global securities markets love China, for the most part. They are Xi’s biggest ally in the U.S. His country represents the biggest, newest open market in the world for stocks and bonds.

This is one reason why Xi has tried to curb high debt on one hand and why his party messengers have put out reports that its digital currency would be a game changer for Asia, upending the dollar, and allowing for more RMB demand. More RMB demand makes more debt more doable. Less RMB demand and, you get the picture.

China’s economy is still sluggish, but where is not? Maybe New Zealand, which makes...?

Fiscal revenue growth declined 10.0% year over year in May from -15.0% in April, based on data compiled by Nomura this morning. China’s “pace of recovery could slow significantly due to slumping external demand, the lagged impact of Covid-19 on corporate profits and waivers and delays in tax payments.”

The U.S. has a much bigger debt to deal with. So long as the dollar is the gold standard for world trade and emerging market central banks prefer it over euros, yens, and the renminbi, what’s to change it? Only China can change it. But to do it, they need foreign investors to buy into a market that from a top down view could be seen as too much of a risk.

From a Natixis report on this out in May, report authors said that they expected two shocks to hit China’s debt dynamics this year: pandemic stimulus and post-pandemic economic fallout.

With a relatively closed capital account (China’s Robinhoods can’t day trade Disney stocks or open up a mutual fund account here), the country’s high savings means banks have more money to play with and will use that to finance a fast growing debt burden.



To: arun gera who wrote (5767)6/20/2020 8:01:14 AM
From: elmatador  Respond to of 13796
 
Newsom's secretive $1 billion mask deal with Chinese company sparks bipartisan concerns

By John Myers, Los Angeles Times 4/20/2020

SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Gov. Gavin Newsom‘s decision to spend almost $1 billion in taxpayer funds to buy protective masks drew national attention as an aggressive move by California to solve one of the most nagging problems of the coronavirus crisis

But almost two weeks after he announced the deal during a cable TV interview, very few details have been disclosed. The governor’s advisers have so far declined requests for information about the agreement with BYD, the Chinese electric car manufacturer hired to produce the masks, though the state has already wired the company the first installment of $495 million.

Newsom, who has been praised for his efforts to slow the spread of the disease, bristled on Saturday at suggestions that his administration has been too slow to explain a deal that will cost California taxpayers 30% more than his January budget would spend on infectious disease prevention for an entire fiscal year.

“I’m for outcome here,” Newsom shot back when asked by a reporter about withholding the contract’s details. “Some are consumed by process, personality, intrigue. Who’s up, who’s down. We are for actually solving a major, major problem — not only for the state but potentially a template for the country.”

But a bipartisan chorus of concerns has emerged in the Legislature. Lawmakers have grown increasingly frustrated that the governor’s advisers have asked only for expedited approval to spend money without briefing them on what has been agreed to.

“I must emphasize, that’s a big deal,” GOP state Sen. Jim Nielsen of Gerber said of the agreement during a legislative oversight hearing Thursday. “And what is in the contract that ensures the deliverability — timely — is going to be really, really important. At the least, we cannot be just throwing out a false hope to people.”

BYD, a Shenzhen-based company whose initials stand for “Build Your Dreams,” has staked its reputation on building electric vehicles. It has a U.S. subsidiary based in Los Angeles, with a vehicle manufacturing facility in Lancaster. The company currently employs about 1,000 people in California, a company spokesman said.

Exactly how BYD has converted some of its manufacturing efforts in China to begin producing protective masks is unclear. On March 13, it touted the creation of “the world’s largest mass-produced face masks plant” in a news release posted on the company’s website. The company announced that it would make 5 million masks a day — far surpassing the 100 million masks a month promised by 3M, the company best known for producing N95 masks, used to help prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

A spokesman for BYD referred all questions about negotiations over the purchase of masks to Newsom’s office.

Newsom and other top officials have described the gambit as straightforward: Leverage the state government’s purchasing power, backed up by a multibillion-dollar cash surplus, to buy 200 million masks a month. The masks would then be distributed to health care and emergency workers across California, a supply chain that would continue through the end of June.

Administration officials have said that each monthly shipment from BYD will contain 150 million N95 masks and 50 million surgical masks.

“We made a big, bold bet on a new strategy, and it is bearing fruit,” Newsom said on April 8.

That same day, the Los Angeles Times asked for a copy of the contract to purchase the masks. An administration official said the request was forwarded to Newsom’s legal affairs team, which has not responded to the request.

BYD is well known in California government circles. In 2013, then-Gov. Jerry Brown announced the company’s decision to build electric buses in Southern California during a trade mission to China. It was a key component of the state’s efforts to reduce greenhouse gases, he said.

“I think it’s very important that we start replacing the bus fleet with electric buses,” Brown said during a tour of BYD’s Shenzhen facility.

But there were criticisms of BYD’s work in California. Problems with some of the company’s electric buses were chronicled in a Times investigation in 2018. The former chief counsel of a competing company said in a 2013 letter to Long Beach officials that BYD had “a history of overpromising and underdelivering.”

Workplace conditions have also come under scrutiny. California safety officials investigated the BYD facility four times between the summer of 2014 and last spring, according to records reviewed by the Times, alleging 20 different workplace violations.

Among the violations alleged at the Lancaster electric car plant last year were errors in the proper use of respirators — safety masks — for its employees.

A company spokesman declined to comment on any of the workplace citations because of pending legal action.

In the years since it set up shop in California, BYD has quietly but steadily ramped up its governmental and political presence. The company has spent more than $1 million lobbying state officials since 2014 and made a $50,000 contribution to the 2018 ballot measure campaign to keep in place California’s new taxes on gas and diesel sales.

In 2015, the Governor’s Office of Business and Economic Development awarded BYD a $3 million tax credit to expand its manufacturing in California to other kinds of electric vehicles. But the company forfeited more than $1 million of the incentive.

“The tax credit was based on an optimistic business forecast that was ultimately revised,” company spokesman Frank Girardot said in an email.

The announcement of new mask production by BYD leadership in China came at just the right moment for California, as the Newsom administration scrambled for protective gear while cases of the novel coronavirus began to mount.

“Look, we’ve been competing against other states, against other nations, against our own federal government” for safety equipment, Newsom told MSNBC host Rachel Maddow on April 7. “We’re not waiting around any longer.”

The next day, the governor’s director of emergency services, Mark Ghilarducci, told reporters that BYD’s California-based subsidiary was key to the $990 million deal.

“This is an organization that has a manufacturing capability that is specifically designed to meet this need,” Ghilarducci said, citing BYD’s operations in China.

But almost immediately, lawmakers wondered why the Newsom administration wouldn’t allow them to review the contract before asking for the first payment to BYD.

“We would never approve a budget this way,” Democratic Assemblyman Phil Ting of San Francisco, chairman of the Assembly Budget Committee, said in an interview April 9, two days after the deal was announced. “The whole reason we don’t do a budget one request at a time is we want to know the big picture.”

That same day, a letter from the Joint Legislative Budget Committee demanded details including the performance standards expected of BYD, the price per mask and delivery timelines. But none of those specifics have, so far, been provided to legislators.

On April 13, three days after the initial $495 million payment, Ghilarducci said that the state was still “in the final negotiation phases” and that the agreement would be kept private until that process was complete.

Three days later, Newsom advisers offered a different explanation. During testimony before a special state Senate budget hearing examining the pandemic’s impact on California’s economy and government finances, lawmakers were told that revealing the contract’s details too soon could mean someone else — not California — might get the masks. Similar problems have arisen in other states, including seizures of supplies by the federal government.

“We have concerns about releasing too many details of it because, again, our goal is to get the supply into California for the people who need it,” said Tina Curry, deputy director of the Governor’s Office of Emergency Services. “There are a lot of things that could come into play to disrupt that, to influence that or interfere with that in some way.”

During a taped appearance on “The Ellen DeGeneres Show” that aired Friday, Newsom voiced similar concerns.

“We haven’t yet seen the benefits of those efforts,” he said of the mask purchase. “I’m not holding my breath. We have backups to that backup.”

On Saturday, while visiting Santa Clara County to discuss efforts to help COVID-19 patients who are homeless, Newsom insisted the BYD contract is complete and that he’s revealed an “appropriate” amount of information given the difficulty in actually getting protective gear to its final destination.

“I recognize everybody’s desire to have everything out there tomorrow,” he said. “And we look forward to all those details becoming public very, very shortly.”

©2020 Los Angeles Times

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