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Technology Stocks : The Roaring Twenty 1998 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: White Shoes who wrote (1)1/28/1998 8:32:00 AM
From: SirAlexx  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 338
 
Ok Shoes, Let's see how this goes;
I will complile my own very short list,
and email it to you to archive until year end..

I see that ACTC made the final cut which compells me to participate throughout the year, as I believe that was submitted by Sir Alexx alone.

Shall we make it so those that make the original recommendation should also post their reasoning if and when they allege that they have sold?

Seems like it would make for good portfolio house cleaning.



To: White Shoes who wrote (1)1/28/1998 8:33:00 AM
From: White Shoes  Respond to of 338
 
Some notes--this portfolio is easily trackable using any portfolio utility or spreadsheet. I won't update it often, because it is difficult to cut and paste tables into SI. This SI page is also easily printable with most browsers.

Some notes on the choices, though a lot more could be said:

The following were picked for growth reasons primarily:

MRVC
YURI
ACTC
IVIAF
OTEXF
SCTR

The following are very speculative, with no earnings history, and are picked for outstanding growth potential for aggressive investors only:

XCIT
GNET
IFM.TO
FCSE
CKFR

The following were picked primarily for the value they offer, in the strength of their balance sheet & low multiple, although some offer outstanding growth prospects too:

HUMCF
INSO
CPCI
SFAM
TLDCF
AWRD
WTT
NSCP
SWEBF

Needless to say, the portfolio being posted here is not any kind of solicitation to invest money. Do your own research, invest at your own risk. The Roaring 20 list is for educational purposes only. It is a 'mock portfolio'.



To: White Shoes who wrote (1)5/6/1998 3:59:00 PM
From: White Shoes  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 338
 
I continue to be quite bullish on XCIT, especially with the announcement about the partnership with AT & T WorldNet. Because we sold at $92 after buying at $38 I suppose we can afford to be bullish with the stock around $66. I think however that we are seeing quite a lot of negative sentiment from the big important loudmouths on Wall Street regarding Excite's kid founders and their supposedly weak financials. And oh yeah haven't you heard, Excite and Yahoo are "search engines". Hmm, somebody's missing the boat if they don't know any more than that about it, for example (one of probably 20 important things to know about XCIT and YHOO) the fact that portals such as XCIT and YHOO are going to supplant or at least pose serious competition for the portal component of AOL (a $16 billion company by the way), as big utilities supply the 'ISP component' of AOL (have you heard, I'm not a big fan of AOL?).

This is why the deal between NSCP and XCIT is so, well, exciting.

That said I think I'll be cheap and look for a price somewhere in the 50's to buy 100 shares of XCIT for the portfolio.

If anyone is reading this thread your thoughts would be welcome, including short term technical analysis of XCIT.



To: White Shoes who wrote (1)3/4/2000 1:55:00 AM
From: White Shoes  Respond to of 338
 
*** Where are they now? ***

Ah, there must always be a reckoning. What became of our Roaring picks? Let's do this informally since I'm too lazy to really look all this stuff up. I think a loose description should give a sense of how well these guys are doing.

Portfolio began January 27, 1998.
This update: closing on March 3, 2000.

One at a time:

MRVC: After Mr. Pink and whatnot tanked the stock to $5 (concerns about "cooked books" or perhaps just bad quarters), MRVC has roared back to life. Originally bought at 22 13/16, close March 3, 2000, at $169 15/16. What in the heck happened this month???? Anyway that's a nearly 700% return, and that is pretty darn ok.

YURI: Some smart guy turned me on to this one and convinced me that it should go in the portfolio. Original buy at 21 and change and the company was bought out shortly thereafter at $35 or so if memory serves.

ACTC: original buy at 5 1/8 but was unceremoniously dumped from the portfolio for a theoretical loss. piece of junk at the time. However some weird stuff happened and a ticker change to ADSX and a subsidiary and an IPO of the subsidiary and fast growing revenues... no time to study this one but something to do with Free PC's maybe... anyway galdarn if it didn't just break out recently to 15 3/16 and still running. Located in Palm Beach though... hmm........

IVIAF bought at 7, merged with another company and is now CMIV - they aren't doing well and languishing at 3 or 4 - but they're in payment processing so "anything could happen".

CKFR Checkfree a leader in payment processing. Bought at 22 5/8 - expensive then but nonetheless it has turned out to be everything promised, closing March 3 2000 at 94 and change. Follow the trends! Predict the future! Get rich!

OTEXF now OTEX. Open Text a leading intranet & knowledge management co. Always liked this one. Bought at 11 7/8 and now trading in the 50's and gaining respect as B2B takes off.

SCTR was Specialty Teleconstructors - some kind of tower builder which was in an industry with a shortage. Bought at 14 and the stock got pumped too high too fast, recommended dumping at 35 or 40, watched it go higher... name change occurred at some point, think it crashed after that

XCIT Excite, was in the bad books when bought at 38 ish. The merger with @Home was a big story and though I can't be bothered to do the math, this was a big winner on the order of 500% or more.

FCSE - got hyped on this maker of tech for high definition TV - bought at 2 13/16 and guess what, they're still kicking around and seemingly doing well at 3 1/2 (crashing right now). Traded above 6 for past 2 months.

IFM on Toronto (or Montreal) - Was Mpact Immedia, is now BCE Emergis. Arguably the biggest winner here - bought at $3.65 Cdn and now at $155 Cdn so a bit more than a 40 bagger in 2 years.

GNET: Go2Net, which now owns this site. Having bought at $8 3/4 would have been good. That's a 40-bagger, split adjusted. I can't believe it!!!! How can one portfolio have so many picks like this???

HUMCF, now HUMC: Hummingbird. Many ups and downs, but long term, a winner. Bot at 30 3/4. Now at 54 and change and looks to be breaking out. On the way to 150?

INSO - again bad quarters, ups and downs, but we bought INSO for its XML products. Beware the future! Bought at 13 9/16. Was getting back on its feet big time, hitting 40 not a month ago, and completely collapsed again, now at 14. What a mess! How does that happen?

CPCI - got too caught up in bleeding edge superfast fiber channel disk array hardware here - let it be a lesson. Peter Lynch: never invest in disk drive companies. This principle is always right, never wrong. Bought at 12 1/8. Now at about the same level. Microcap company not widely followed anymore.

SFAM - chipmaker again bleeding edge. Tanked after buying at 24 but has now recovered - at 27 and should survive, Japan willing.

TLDCF - Israeli co which made midrange telecom equipment. Seemed like a good idea at the time but the company was pretty untrustworthy with info and disclosure. Bought 12 3/16. Escaped unscathed when co. bought out for 15 3/4.

AWRD - BIOS makers. Merged with rival Phoenix. Bought at 8, now around 27 - good growth and less competition... clear sailing.

WTT - Wireless Tel. No idea what the deal is on this, but it traded on Amex. We bought at 6 and change & dumped for a loss. Stock is now breaking out at 7.5 and looking like it's heading to the moon with solid earnings, but then again, I'm suspicious. Watch out for the dilution.

SWEBF - Softquad had web design products -HoTMeTaL pro etc. but the corporate structure was all weird. Bought for less than 1 and don't want to try to figure out what happened... probably worthless but maybe i'm wrong - anyway the nice part is the new company called Softquad Software just raised $700 mil in an IPO. So someone's getting theirs anyway.

NSCP - Was Netscape ever undervalued when we bought at 16 7/8. AOL bought it out where, somewhere around 60?

This was a totally imaginary portfolio.

I am therefore a totally imaginary multi-millionaire.

Glad we did this though - nothing like the test of time to test our investing theories! Several huge winners here!