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Technology Stocks : PSFT - 1997 Outlook [closed thread] -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rick who wrote (805)	1/28/1998 2:51:00 PM
From: Melissa McAuliffe	Respond to of 940

Rick,<<Two days ago PSFT was at about 32 and your crystal ball suggested that the next day (yesterday) PSFT would likely be down. Yesterday, PSFT rose almost 4 points. Can you help me understand what went wrong with your Technical Analysis ? Perhaps this was merely the exception, and usually it works ?>> I mentioned in an earlier post that TA is something I am relatively new to so don't take what I say here as anything but my own observations. On Tuesday there was heavy volume, a close at the low of the day and an even further drop below its 50 day ma among other things. Without knowing what was going on (i.e. SAP earnings) this suggested to me that we were in trouble for the following day. If the SAP report had not been positive we would have been. Everyone has to use TA their own way. What the TA tells you is that there is something going on. If TA were a perfect solution and always right everyone would be using TA and be a millionaire. So sometimes I am right in my observations and sometimes wrong. At least I am not one of these people who say the price is going down because the p/e is too high<g> Melissa

To: Rick who wrote (805)	1/28/1998 3:42:00 PM
From: Satyr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 940

Absolutely nothing was wrong with her analysis. Your fundamental approach said that PSFT should be going up yet you stood by and watched it slide from 39 1/2 to under 32. I know I made some money on the way down and although the last educated guess was wrong TA also got us long again yesterday at 33 1/2. I don't know anyone who catches the top and bottom so I'll be quite happy to take the 50% in the middle of all moves. I agree with Melissa that fundamentals are important but as she pointed out by the time you get the current changes in the fundamental picture the price has already changed. By then a good chartist would of already reversed. No one is right all the time but at least TA can give you a plan. RE I once saw an experiment with 3 respected Chartists asked to explain and predict the same chart - needless to say, 3 completely different interpretations and very comical I guess the same could be said for fundamentalists otherwise how could different analysts upgrade and downgrade the stock on the same day. No offense taken after all we all have the same goal just different ways of getting there.