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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zamboz who wrote (160017)	7/11/2020 2:24:13 AM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation Recommended By marcher Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218089

Re <<1999>> I fear we are not in 1999-equivalent moment, but I hope not 70-years earlier, 1929, or 210 years earlier still, 1789 cdn.mises.org . I am not ready. Of course no one ever ready. Life is rarely about convenience when ready-set-go. After taking a tentative first-stab at Message 32829212 << social-chemistry or economic-physics or political-biology >> I only got a general question as interim result, and that be ... “why do we as a species tend to expect different outcomes out of equivalent / similar set of circumstances in varied geographies but populated by essentially the same sort of creatures operating under laws of social-chemistry / economic-physics / political-biology?” I fear the answer, if I am forced to lock self in room and not leave until I give a plausibly correct answer, would be, “because we are creatures full of hope and dreams, and we are able to, intellectually, discount the far and unknowable unknown future at a very modest and even negative discount rate” Or, when the market is going up, we can table 1,001 reasons why it shall continue to go up, and the next day, should the market drop, 1,002 reasons why it will continue to go up. If I had told you that a particular Asian or African or Latin American country’s CoVid at record count, death count rising, death rate unknown, cities disrupted at street level, economy mass-financialised, and political leadership bickering, no particular forward planning, interest rate suppressed, market manipulated, have / have-not bifurcation accelerating, debt levels zooming, industry moribund, and and and, we likely would not conclude that the equity market would rise and break to new highs. My in-law called me yesterday. He is in his early 80s. His portfolio is lopsided by 0388.HK. His stake in the business started w/ two invested trading seats in the pre-corporatized stock exchange, and at the get-go of IPO he doubled-down, sold an apartment and plowed the proceeds into the IPO shares at less than HK$13 per share. He asked me if he should sell ‘some’. I asked him whether he would sell and buy more 0788.HK. He said no, for his 0788.HK funding is comparatively much smaller and inconsequential. I said I am stumped, because all the reasons for 0388.HK relentless rise are still at play, and so many wanting to buy 0388.HK at lower levels. Crazy. Maybe sell 5-10%, but be ready to enter at lower levels. I told him that under the totality of considerations, whilst gold pricing seems still reasonable, am unsure about 0388.HK. This is not the first time he asked me the question. Each time he did not sell, but did add on pullback. I told him I am not qualified to comment on 0388.HK given my tiny exposure, and that my friends do value what I say about 0388.HK because I just quote his rationale.