Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike M2 who wrote (13525)	1/28/1998 4:53:00 PM
From: HB	Respond to of 18056

William/Mike.... this is a thought-provoking site. The point about real interest rates having been near zero in 92-93 is well taken... this may have been excessive stimulus, IMO. But real interest rates now are rather high. Chart #9 at the site is ridiculous, I think.... that trend line is obviously statistically worthless as even a quick eyeball reveals. (It's based on one early peak; the rest of the dataset is pretty clearly noise with no trend.) But the claim that expansions have been getting weaker since WWII seems relatively peripheral to the argument. The international aspect seems crucial. Greenspan's freedom of action is somewhat circumscribed by other countries actions, and the recent Asian devaluations may have a big impact on it. The implications of these for US monetary and fiscal policy are the number one thing we should be thinking about, IMO. Howard