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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: geewiz who wrote (2139)	1/28/1998 3:57:00 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5676

These market patterns never really repeat themselves exactly, but it has also been bothering me that the US market action ever since August has much resembled the period immediately BEFORE the last big market rise in 1929. On the other hand, it may just be that because we are still in a bull market that in some ways can be traced back as far as 1974--23 years--it may just take a very lengthy period of meaningless fluctuation to persuade people that holding stocks isn't getting them anywhere. Perhaps if by the end of next summer the indices have made a few more oscillations, some people will start to reflect that they'd be better off getting a steady 5-6% on their money. The 1973-74 bear market lasted 21 months--unless you consider the drop in 1970 the start of it all.The period 1945-1969 is perhaps comparable in length and magnitude to the 1974-1997 period. If you add bull and bear markets together it comes close to defining a generational period. In fact--though "new era" talk is always ominous--fundamental economic conditions and mechanisms do undergo secular changes. So any analogy with the past is bound to be faulty. But really good times have always been followed by bad times, and bad times have always turned around and become good times--sometimes very slowly and sometimes very quickly. We are living in very good times, and the complacency about this is sufficient reason to be very wary. The U.S. stock market is simply not worth close to what people are currently willing to pay for it.