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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (160220)	7/16/2020 4:00:06 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 219981

:0) you are being too deliberate and rational about TSLA As part of the mania I just shorted at the money, and tomorrow-expiration puts, just to see if I can trade out of it ... 127/1500 = ~8% for 24 hours, during a mania, and fundamentals might not matter Should I be put, short more calls :0) Should I be rewarded, short more calls anyway, just not at the money

To: carranza2 who wrote (160220)

7/17/2020 12:11:19 AM

From: TobagoJack

Respond to of 219981

Gold must not go up, and russia must not be allowed to sell more useless gold than useful gas, queue ‘conflict’ gold, as opposed to conflict-anything-else such as coconut, chocolate, coffee, whatever

Gdx, gdxj, gld all down. Drd up. Either drd lags the universe, or leads the universe. Study in motion.

bloomberg.com

Conflict Gold Back in Spotlight as Investors Flock to Safe Haven

Elena Mazneva
July 16, 2020, 8:12 PM GMT+2

As demand for gold as a safe haven surged during the coronavirus pandemic, concerns about sourcing the precious metal responsibly have again been thrust into the spotlight.

A report from Global Witness alleging one of the world’s biggest gold refiners has worked with a supplier that was at risk of having bought conflict metal originating in Sudan is the latest in a series of calls from advocacy groups urging the London Bullion Market Association to scrutinize suppliers more closely.

Gold, which is trading near an eight-year high, is one of four conflict minerals that U.S.-listed companies from Tiffany & Co. to Apple Inc. must trace and report on to the Securities and Exchange Commission. Suppliers are coming under pressure to show they’ve got processes and policies in place to make sure the metal hasn’t financed conflict or been linked to corruption or human rights abuses.

Read more on conflict gold:

UN Experts Show Gold Smuggling Networks From Congo to Dubai Warlord-Linked Sudanese Firm Hands Over Gold Mines to Government ‘Blood Gold’ Controversy Forces Industry Transparency Push

In its report on Thursday, Global Witness alleges that Swiss refiner Valcambi SA bought large amounts of gold from Dubai-based Kaloti Precious Metals Group, which in turn was at risk of having purchased Sudanese conflict gold. It said there are gaps in the LBMA’s responsible sourcing standards that don’t generally require refiners to disclose their suppliers.

The LBMA and Valcambi declined to immediately comment on the Global Witness report. Kaloti said the allegations in the Global Witness report are not true.

“Kaloti is independently audited each year against the relevant standards and at no time has any conflict material, from any jurisdiction, including Sudan, been identified in any of its supply chains,” it said. “Furthermore, Kaloti has never sent any gold material sourced from Sudan to any Swiss refinery whatsoever.”

Valcambi has also denied Global Witness’s findings and said it conducts enhanced due diligence, the advocacy group said.

Valcambi last month said it pledged to adopt a new system to increase transparency in its process for sourcing precious metals. Based on blockchain technology, the system will require the refiner’s potential gold suppliers to upload all due diligence information, including data and documents into a database, which will then be accessible to all appropriate auditing parties.

It’s not the only refiner coming under recent scrutiny.

Last week, activist group RAID asked the LBMA to suspend India-based refiner MMTC-PAMP, part of another Swiss major, MKS PAMP Group, over gold from a mine in Tanzania where there have been allegations of human rights abuses. The refiner denied all the complaints and allegations by RAID.

The LBMA also said last month it’s reviewing reported sourcing concerns at the Perth Mint over gold originating from Papua New Guinea.

The association introduced its “responsible gold guidance” in 2012, and requires accredited refiners to undergo annual audits. Sourcing is also a concern for industrial metals like copper and cobalt. The London Metal Exchange introduced responsible-sourcing standards covering all metals traded on the bourse in October 2019, forcing producers to probe their supply chains and demonstrate compliance with due-diligence guidelines drawn up by the OECD.

— With assistance by Mark Burton

Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal.
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To: carranza2 who wrote (160220)	7/17/2020 2:10:34 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 219981

bullish ... should be good for another few hours :0) I just need TSLA to be w/i 8% of 1500 by day's end bloomberg.com Tesla Keeps Adding China Users With Registrations Hitting Record Ville Heiskanen 17 July 2020, 05:33 GMT+2 Tesla Inc. kept gaining users in China last month, with registrations of its electric vehicles jumping to a record in the world’s largest market as the coronavirus outbreak receded. In June, 14,976 China-built Teslas were registered in the country, according to data from state-backed China Automotive Information Net. That’s a 32% increase from May and the highest monthly number so far for the carmaker, which is ramping up output after starting deliveries from its Shanghai plant around the beginning of the year. While the broader Chinese auto market is recovering slowly from a two-year slump, wealthier buyers are drawn to Tesla’s brand cachet. The EV market leader’s sales now approach a quarter of the total tally for the category, the China Passenger Car Association said this month, making life difficult for a slew of local upstarts trying to get their businesses off the ground. Through June, there were 49,761 Teslas registered in China. Tesla Gaining Ground Pushes China EV Bubble Toward Bursting Success in China is crucial to Palo Alto, California-based Tesla’s valuation. Its shares have more than tripled this year partly on expectation of rising sales beyond its domestic market. The company displaced Toyota Motor Corp. as the world’s most valuable automaker this month, highlighting investor enthusiasm for its attempt to transform an industry that’s relied on internal-combustion engines for more than a century. Tesla will deliver nearly 4 million vehicles in 2025, including grabbing about 7% of China’s total car market, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter predicted in a note this week as he raised his price target to $2,322. That implies a further upside of more than 50% for the stock over the next 12 months. Yet competition in China is getting tougher. Local EV rival NIO Inc. has been energized by a capital injection from a regional government and a fresh credit line from six banks, while global peers including BMW AG and Mercedes-Benz maker Daimler AG are bringing out new models. BMW Rolls Out China-Made Electric SUV to Take on Tesla’s Model Y Cars built at Tesla’s Shanghai plant -- its first outside the U.S. -- have made up the vast majority of Tesla registrations in China since opening. The company is building Model 3 sedans at the site and is preparing to assemble Model Y compact SUVs there. Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. LEARN MORE

To: carranza2 who wrote (160220)	7/17/2020 4:36:04 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 219981

The extreme high volatility of TSLA allows for 100% profitable trades of BOTH shorted calls and shorted puts w/ short durations to expiration. The scheme allows for highly compressed holding periods that concentrates loot ordinarily requiring considerable amount of time to take down and take home. In effect the Robinhood mob is correct, “the market only goes up”. Crazy, but understandable. What the Robinhooders might not realize is that they are the eveready energizer bunny, to be hunted, exhausted, and stewed. The want to buy options? I intend to keep selling to them options. Have closed all except three TSLA option positions. Shall resume cloud-ATM protocol on Monday market-open. Yes, this way is nuts, but then the market is not well. I must admit to self, this is fun. Warning, extremely dangerous, for both bulls AND bears. Additional observation - DRD is nice.

To: carranza2 who wrote (160220)	7/18/2020 4:55:31 AM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation Recommended By marcher Respond to of 219981

Re <<tight>>, <<sold some DRD>>, <<dam>>, <<floods>> and <<much worse>> and <<many millions affected>> You and I both may have been misled, because of our weakness of faith, attracted by seeming profit. Monday we know what to do. Just in in-tray ... OUCH!!! buy buy buy something, anything, not sure what, but at least one thing, the go-to metal of faith w/ true autonomous self-drive property built-in let us hope the authorities weaponise gold, crater its pricing, for the greater good whatever the case, cash is a sick joke bloomberg.com The Fed Is Setting the Stage for a Major Policy Change Policy makers have begun talking about letting the inflation rate rise above its 2% target. Look for a formal statement soon. Tim Duy July 17, 2020, 6:00 AM EDT Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may soon have something to say about inflation. Source: Federal Reserve via Getty Images For the Federal Reserve, this time really is different. Having learned a hard lesson in the last recovery — don’t tighten monetary policy too early — the central bank is leaning in the opposite direction. In practice, that means the Fed will not just emphasize actual inflation over forecasted inflation, but will also attempt to push the inflate rate above its 2% target. It’s a whole new ballgame. The Fed’s traditional Phillips curve approach to forecasting inflation, which relies on the theory that inflation accelerates as unemployment falls, was widely criticized during the most recent economic recovery. Inflation remained quiescent in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis even as the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, well below the 2012 high estimate of the natural rate, or 5.6%. The Fed’s commitment to Phillips curve-based inflation forecasts induced it to raise interest rates too early in the cycle and continue to boost rates into late 2018 even as faltering markets signaled the hikes had gone too far. The Fed was eventually forced to lower rates 75 basis points in 2019 to put a floor under the economy. Inflation remained stubbornly below the Fed’s 2% target throughout that period. Faced now with the prospect of another prolonged period of low inflation, Fed officials are signaling they will place less emphasis on Phillips curve estimates when setting policy. Fed Governor Lael Brainard said this week that “with inflation exhibiting low sensitivity to labor market tightness, policy should not preemptively withdraw support based on a historically steeper Phillips curve that is not currently in evidence.” No longer are estimates of longer-run unemployment taken as almost certainly indicating the economy is at full employment. Instead, Brainard said the Fed should focus on achieving “employment outcomes with the kind of breadth and depth that were only achieved late in the previous recovery.” The Fed is going to try to run the economy hot to push down unemployment. By de-emphasizing the Philips curve, the Fed loses its primary inflation forecasting tool. Instead of an inflation forecast, the Fed will rely on actual inflation outcomes to determine the appropriate time to change policy. Brainard pointed out that “research suggests that refraining from liftoff until inflation reaches 2% could lead to some modest temporary overshooting, which would help offset the previous underperformance.” Think about what she is saying. Traditionally, the Fed attempts to reach the inflation target from below, effectively using the unemployment rate to forecast inflation and then moderating growth such that projected inflation doesn’t exceed its target. Brainard is saying the Fed should not tighten policy until actual inflation reaches 2%. Policy lags — the time between the Fed’s actions and the resulting economic outcomes — mean inflation will subsequently rise above 2%. The Fed would thus overshoot the inflation target and then return to the target from above. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker goes even further in a Wall Street Journal interview, saying “I don’t see any need to act any time soon until we see substantial movement in inflation to our 2% target and ideally overshooting a bit.” Expect to see more Fed speakers also saying they want inflation at or above 2% before they tighten policy. Also expect to see something along these lines codified at in a policy statement. This shift also has implications for the Fed’s ongoing review of policy, strategy, and communications. When Brainard talks about offsetting “previous underperformance,” she is giving a green light to a “make-up” strategy in which the Fed compensates for a period of below-target inflation with a period of above-target inflation. The Fed’s current policy does not allow for such a strategy. The broad willingness to accept overshooting implies that the Fed’s policy review will conclude with a shift toward some form of average inflation targeting in which the central bank explicitly sets policy to compensate for errors such that inflation averages 2% over time. The implication for financial markets is that the Fed expects to hold policy very easy for a very long time. They will reinforce this stance with enhanced-forward guidance and, eventually, yield-curve control. As long as inflation remains below 2%, the Fed will push back on any ideas that they will tighten policy anytime soon. And even inflation above 2% wouldn’t guarantee tighter policy if the Fed concluded the overshoot was transitory. Don’t doubt the Fed’s resolve to keep policy accommodative. They will keep reminding you if you forget. (Corrects spelling of Patrick Harker’s name in seventh paragraph.) This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners. To contact the author of this story: Tim Duy at duy@uoregon.edu To contact the editor responsible for this story: Robert Burgess at bburgess@bloomberg.net

To: carranza2 who wrote (160220)	7/18/2020 12:27:27 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 219981

do not know enough to fine-calibrate, but if it is time then it is time, else just a question of time, earlier probably better than later, but let's see ask-socrates.com BlogThe Dollar Down & Dirty? The dollar still remains under pressure going into the US elections as the talk of the town fears a Democratic Victory will lead to massive bailouts for the states and unprecedented increase in the supply of dollars. A weekly closing above the 11360 level should signal a test of the 115-116 level. We need to close above generally the 11490 level to imply a test of the former high at the 12500 zone. Our models are indicating a turning point aligning up with the US elections, and the wild and crazy times seem to start during the 1st quarter 2021.