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Strategies & Market Trends : Lizard King's Trading Swamp -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TATRADER who wrote (4190)	1/28/1998 5:38:00 PM
From: Instock	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7396

Mark: Very Well Said ! Thanks Instock

To: TATRADER who wrote (4190)	1/28/1998 6:15:00 PM
From: virgil vancleave	Respond to of 7396

nice post. i agree wholeheartedly with what you posted. just says you need to do your own analysis and develope a strategy and then stick to it. and a 60/40 batting average is good, if you know when to cut the losers to prevent large losses both short or long. just want to have your opinion on one that just reported earning that i still own. tsemf. ta not very good but it has formed a nice base but the valuation just says there is not much more to the downside here. and the nice sellloff with the very strong reversal in december would be quite bullish to me. am i right here? thanks for your opinion as i was long and had to leave (i am in navy) and it had already fallen when i retuned in november. thanks

To: TATRADER who wrote (4190)	1/29/1998 9:28:00 AM
From: bid for size	Respond to of 7396

Mark, The short play on DELL was contingent on it being rebuffed at 96 resistance, which it traded right through on good vol. Also with NASDAQ above 1600, I'm looking to go long. Semi Equip stocks are gaining momentum and remain near lows of the cycle. Although CNBC reported that Kurlak over at Merrill lowered earnings this morning, this should provide a pullback and another chance to go long.

To: TATRADER who wrote (4190)	1/30/1998 7:58:00 AM
From: Land Shark	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7396

Your post is so good, that I'm going to print it out and post it on my office wall (hopefully my boss will not catch on to the fact I'm trading during office hours :)). Many thanks...

To: TATRADER who wrote (4190)	1/30/1998 8:50:00 AM
From: TraderGreg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7396

Very good set of descriptors except that MMs are often the bad guys. Sounds like Franco, who frequented the CSMA board and then ...disappeared. Question: Do they rejoin SI with a different logon name? Does SI check that sort of thing. TG

To: TATRADER who wrote (4190)	1/30/1998 11:04:00 AM
From: Roo	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 7396

Mark, Thank you for this very informative and concise post. I notice that it's getting a lot of "air-time" on SI this morning (I think if SI did stats for "HOT POSTS" like they do for "HOT TOPICS," this would probably be in the #1 slot <g>) Having seen both sides of the prophet coin however, I feel compelled to respond to provide exposure for the equally manipulative and dangerous "false prophet of doom." As even the greenest newbies quickly discover, there are people who make money by driving stock values up, and there are people who make money by driving stock prices down. You have cited the interest of people who drive stock values up for their own purposes, let us not forget those who drive stock prices down for their own purposes. I hope you don't mind that I copied your post to make a more concise comparison between the False Prophet 'FP' and the False Prophet of Doom 'FPD' (FPD remarks are in italics): How can I know if someone on an investment site is a false prophet or not? Here are some signs. 1.A false prophet is very knowledgeable about the stock he follows and is always bullish (same except FPD is bearish). 2.A false prophet frequents only one thread on an investment bulletin board, or may follow a group of stocks from a certain sector...(example, desert dirts on Silicon) (same) 3.A false prophet will sometimes encourage you to take possession of your shares, to stop the Market Maker who is supposedly shorting the stock. (A FPD will discourage you from taking possession of your shares claiming that you will be unable to trade 'when' the stock tanks) 4. A false prophet tries to play the Market Maker as an evil force who wants you to sell your shares to him at a lower price. (A FPD tries to play the company, officers, and/or bulls as evil forces who want you to hand over your hard-earned money by buying more shares from them at a higher price) 5. A False prophet encourages you to hang in there as your losses mount. (A FPD encourages you to bail to 'protect your profits,' or to 'play with house money') 6. A False prophet is receiving payment from the gods of the company, or has a large position at a low price in that particular security... (A FPD is receiving payment from the gods of short selling, or has a large short position in that particular security) 7. A False prophet has a following of people who praise him for his expertise. Many times one or two followers that frequent the same thread are personal servants of the False prophet. He gives them insider information, so that they can take up their positions before press releases occur. (same, except for the FPD, 'insider info' is not company information, rather it is the inside track on shorting activities and strategy) 8. A False prophet talks of future stock prices that are unrealistic. The prophet quotes prices of $20.00, $50.00 or $100.00 a share. He loves to play on your emotion of greed. (A FPD quotes losses of 20%, 50% or 100% a share. He loves to play on your emotion of fear) 9. A False prophet has a group of Followers that are blindly loyal. Before they know it, the false prophet has dumped his shares while they are buying, and he then offers them up as a sacrifice....They are left holding an empty bag. (A FPD has a group of followers that have fallen victim to his claims and sold their positions, often at a loss, and ensuring that the prophecy becomes self-fulfilling) 10. A False prophet suddenly disappears from a thread, and moves on to another stock, either under a new alias, or by the same title. (If successfull, a FPD hangs around to receive the praise of those he 'protected' even though it was his negative hype and their selling that caused the prophecy to come true. If unsuccessfull, the FPD suddenly disappears from the thread, etc...) I believe your next notes to be true regardless of the investing environment and worth repeating: How do I find a true prophet, or a real friend, who is not interested in himself or just promoting a particular stock? 1.A true prophet frequents many different threads on a particular investment bulletin board. 2.A true prophet can be both negative and positive on a stock. 3.A true prophet is retired or has another full-time job 4.A true prophet shows a humble spirit, and is always trying to help out others. 5.A true prophet is right 60% of the time on his picks and wrong 40% of the time. And finally I conclude with this: There are both 'hypesters' and 'doomsayers' out there who are correct about the companies they are discussing, and are genuine about the positive or negative enthusiasm they show. Knowing that, THERE IS NO SUBSTITUTE FOR DOING YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE, understanding your own investment style and being keenly aware of your own risk tolerance. Best regards, -ROO