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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: carranza2 who wrote (160604)7/27/2020 7:49:12 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 218836
 
Re << Watch the bullion bank manipulators squash it down as the US open approaches.>>

I HOPE you are right. Gold needs a smash-down, for the greater good.

In the meantime, considerations posited by FT ...

ft.com

Gold hits a record and dollar falls as economic outlook darkens

Deepening tension between Washington and Beijing boosts investor appetite for havens

July 27, 2020


Gold has rallied as doubts deepen over the prospects for a smooth economic recovery in the US © Bloomberg

Gold soared to an all-time high and the dollar weakened to a multiyear low as sharp increases in US coronavirus cases and flare-ups around the world weighed on investor confidence.

The price of the precious metal, which investors typically view as a haven in times of uncertainty, climbed as much as 2.2 per cent to a record $1,944.71 per troy ounce on Monday. Its value has jumped by more than a quarter this year, making it one of the best-performing asset classes.

Gold has rallied in recent sessions as doubts have deepened over the prospects for a smooth economic recovery. The US reported a total of 62,000 new coronavirus cases on Sunday with states including Florida, Tennessee and Arizona recording the highest number of new cases per million people.

The yellow metal has also been boosted by the negative returns investors garner when holding haven debt, such as that issued by the US and Germany, after accounting for inflation, according to analysts at ING.

The spectre of massive stimulus programmes launched by fiscal and monetary authorities around the world stoking increases in the prices of goods and services in the years to come has also been a boon to gold, considered by many investors to be a hedge against inflation.

European markets fell in early trading, with the regional benchmark Stoxx index slipping 0.3 per cent and London’s FTSE 100 down 0.2 per cent — weighed down by significant losses for airlines after the UK warned on travel to Spain.

“This weekend we perhaps got a glimpse of how challenging life will be this winter without a vaccine,” said Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid, pointing to rising case numbers in the US and parts of Europe and Asia.

Spain has faced a sharp uptick in cases across three regions, with Germany also reporting a rise. The situation has continued to deteriorate across Latin America while in Asia, Hong Kong and the Australian state of Victoria have also seen significant increases.


The jump for gold came as the dollar lost ground against a swath of currencies. The dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of trading peers, fell as much as 0.5 per cent to its lowest level since June 2018.

“Clearly the US dollar is really being questioned very openly. The question is: If you're negative the dollar what are you positive on?” said Robert Rennie, global head of market strategy at Westpac. “Gold is the one asset market that is really reflecting heightened risks from rising geopolitical tensions.”

Tension between the US and China was heightened at the weekend by the arrest of a Chinese researcher who American authorities said had been hiding in the country’s San Francisco consulate. Washington has alleged that the researcher is a member of the Chinese military.

“The China hawks in the White House are?.?.?. doing all they can to burn bridges to reach a point of no return in US-China relations to ensure there can be no detente-style backsliding under a potential Biden administration,” said Michael Every, global strategist at Rabobank.

Qi Gao, a currency strategist at Scotiabank, said tit-for-tat closures of consulates in Houston and Chengdu last week had stoked tension to the point that it had weighed on the US currency. “In the coming weeks you’ll see the dollar weakening further,” he added.

The dollar’s weakness came ahead of a meeting by the US Federal Reserve’s rate-setters on Wednesday. Traders expect that the central bank will keep interest rates at close to zero.

Republicans are set to unveil their proposals for a new round of stimulus later on Monday. Existing benefits, passed at the start of the coronavirus crisis in March, are due to expire at the end of the month.

The Japanese yen, another perceived haven, strengthened 0.6 per cent to a four-month high of ¥105.50 per dollar. The pound rose 0.2 per cent to $1.2823 and the euro gained 0.4 per cent to $1.1704.

Asian equity markets were mixed. China’s CSI 300 index of Shanghai and Shenzhen-listed stocks added 0.5 per cent while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.4 per cent. Japan’s Topix index rose 0.2 per cent as traders returned from a long weekend.

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To: carranza2 who wrote (160604)7/29/2020 3:57:15 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 218836
 
Re <<gold>>

For some domains, with whatever amount of gold relative to whatever size of economy and external trade, at current gold pricing, gold can be another-money, instead of just sitting in storage

bloomberg.com

India’s Banks Are Racing to Lend Against a $1.5 Trillion Hoard of Gold
Swansy Afonso

LISTEN TO ARTICLE
Indian families, sitting on the world’s biggest private stash of gold, are rushing to borrow against their jewelry as the precious metal rallies to records and the coronavirus pandemic fuels an economic downturn. Now, financial firms and banks are using that demand to lure more customers from pawnbrokers and money lenders.

The added competition could lower borrowing costs for Indian consumers, who in desperate moments of financial stress often pay exorbitant rates to informal lenders to use gold as collateral. Firms like HDFC Bank Ltd. and Federal Bank Ltd. are expanding the loans they make against the precious metal. India’s gold lenders, such as Muthoot Finance Ltd. and Manappuram Finance Ltd., are making it easier for their clients to borrow.

Manappuram is offering gold-backed loans at the customer’s doorsteps via a 24-hour bank network since people are reluctant to leave their homes while coronavirus cases are surging in India. And it has staff and vehicles on standby to service client requests. HDFC Bank is boosting the number of branches offering such loans in rural India, where money lenders remain the norm.

The World Gold Council estimates that Indian households are sitting on a $1.5 trillion hoard of gold, the biggest of its kind, largely made up of jewelry, which families often inherit or are gifted at weddings. Gold is worn at special occasions and can contribute to a substantial portion of the marriage dowries of women. It also doubles up as an insurance policy and retirement plan in a nation lacking robust social welfare systems.

As a result, India’s demand for gold-backed loans has only risen as its global price has approached $2,000 an ounce, allowing families to borrow larger amounts against their holdings.

Still, consultancy KPMG estimates that 65% of India’s $46 billion gold loan industry is dominated by informal lenders, whose interest rates can range from 25% to 50%. In many parts of India, particularly rural areas, the pawning of a woman’s ornaments is often viewed as a last recourse for families who have run out of options.

“Conventionally the country has pawn shops at the end of every street and they have been mostly working with exorbitant margins,” said Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, director at Commtrendz Risk Management Services Pvt. “A professional setup like the gold loan companies, who offer transparency and finer pricing are likely to see huge volumes to move from there.”

Lost JobsBanks have long had a limited presence in the gold loan industry but are attempting to make bigger inroads this year as other sources of income have dried up. They want to reach more consumers like Paul Fernandes, who pledged some of his wife’s gold ornaments at a local bank in the coastal state of Goa to pay for his children’s education fees in June.

Fernandes, who worked as a head waiter on a cruise ship, hasn’t drawn a salary in three months since his contract with a U.K.-based company expired in March and he had to return home. The quick loan was a lifeline.

“With no clarity when the cruise industry will revive after being grounded by the virus, I don’t know how soon I will be able to work again,” he said. “We have in the past borrowed against gold and it is our go-to option to tide over short-term cash needs rather than asking money from relatives.”

Fernandes, who declined to say which bank he borrowed from, said he is being charged an interest rate of 8.5%. He chose to go to a bank instead of a pawnshop because banks are safer and charge lower interest rates. He was asked for minimal documentation of only a national identity card and residence proof and the entire loan process took less than an hour.

Gold loans allow consumers to draw upto 75% of the value of the metal. Banks can charge interest rates of about 7% to 15% while Manappuram and Muthoot can charge rates from 12% to 29%.

With transaction times to process gold loans falling to less than an hour and collateral that’s easy to sell in the event of default, India’s market for such lending is set to expand by at least 34% to 4.6 trillion rupees ($61 billion) in two years to March 2022, according to an estimate by KPMG.

Gold ReservesMuthoot, Manappuram have the 23rd largest gold pile in the world

Source: World Gold Council, Exchange Filings

Virus-related lockdowns in India have shuttered businesses and left millions jobless, pushing India’s economy toward its first annual contraction in four decades. Bank loans may not grow at all in the year ending March 31, 2021, according to the local unit of S&P Global Ratings. That makes gold-backed loans particularly important.

HDFC Bank is slowly making inroads into the market and plans to raise the number of branches offering gold loans in rural areas this year from 800 in the previous fiscal year. “The availability of the asset and the ease of securing a loan have made this a convenient and viable credit option,” the bank said in its annual report in June.

Kerala-based Federal Bank, which saw its gold loans grow 36% in the quarter ended June from a year earlier, says they are an area of high focus. “It’s spoken about at least once every day by the senior teams,” Managing Director Shyam Srinivasan said in an analyst call on July 15.



As competition in the segment rises, non-banking financial companies are offering more innovative products.

“Banks have started playing aggressively in the gold loan sector, creating a price pressure on non-banking finance companies,” said Jaikrishnan G., director at KPMG. A south Indian non-banking finance company, Indel Money, is now giving gold loans with a two-year tenure to provide liquidity to individuals and small businesses hit by the economic crisis.

The longer tenure, as compared to the 90 days or 120 days it now allows, will help customers retain their ownership of the pawned ornaments and reduce risk of auctioning the jewelry if repayment obligations are not honored within the term, said Umesh Mohanan, executive director of Indel Money.

In the formal lending sector, Muthoot and Manappuram remain the leaders on gold-backed loans. As of March 31, they held 248.4 tons of gold pledged by customers, equal to about half the European Central Bank’s reserves. Shares of the two companies have rallied this year, with India’s largest gold lender Muthoot’s stock more than doubling since the Indian government announced the first lockdown restrictions in March.

The highest demand has from the lower middle class, or those with incomes of 13,000-15,000 rupees, said V.P. Nandakumar, chief executive officer of Manappuram.

The push by the banking sector could help the market for gold loans grow by 20% to 25% this fiscal year amid demand from small businesses and agricultural operations that are often family owned, said P.R. Somasundaram, managing director for India at the World Gold Council.

“Gold loans are growing but once the lockdown is lifted and some sort of normalcy returns you will see a big jump,” he said. “When most businesses open they will require capital.”

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