Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Financial Collapse of 2001 Unwinding -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: THE ANT who wrote (6053)	8/7/2020 2:40:11 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 13803

It is not the data. It who looks at at it and come out with insights. PCR Covid tests can tell whether or not someone has the virus very early on. Irrespective of this person will get sick or not. It is just data acquisition. But data is not information. It is data, and data is a raw material. One need to sift through that data and come out with the gold nuggets. Early on, after telecoms' analog systems were being replaced by digital systems, it became cheaper and widespread to acquire data in microwave systems using digital technologies. Therefore, a system that was used to be left alone, and was robust, once became digital, it was hooked up to a printer that spit data round the clock. People tending those system would look at it, in the morning, and saw nothing but reams of printed paper. A cleaver guy would look at the paper and could discern that the system had degraded seconds in a certain hop, (these were long links of 200Km or so) which was easily explained by heavy rainfall overnight. Or a hop, (these 200Km were divided into hops) was across a lake and was degraded from 7AM to 11AM because of the Sun was heating the lake's water surface and it had more droplets in the microwave path. In short, it needed a brain to detect patterns and explain and see how severe it could have been. At the end of the day, the system was still within the parameter for which it was designed. But one would need to explain this to a crowd of 50 donkeys who weren't able to think. Covid-19 might have been suffering from a similar effect. There is a lot of data but people should be deriving information from it.

To: THE ANT who wrote (6053)	8/9/2020 3:33:20 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 13803

Here is how people start get confused with fiat currency as store of value. Before I start. We must note that the vast majority of the planet's population does not have this problem of protecting assets and capital. The vast majority of the world's population do not have assets beyond the house they live in. In Europe, they don't even have that as the social democracies provide safety nets and they live their whole lives renting their abodes.. A fiat currency is backed up by the real economy. You do not pay a penalty to hold a fiat currency. An alternative to fiat currency has a cost. If you buy property in, say, Vermont or Wyoming, parking your capital there, you pay property taxes Any material things that one can hold in lieu of fiat currencies, carries a risk. If you hold in your house gold. emeralds or a Rolex watch collection you need to protect that physical asset. Same goes for art objects or wine. You need insurance. You need cameras and alarms and you may even have to move to another property just for security's sake. If you get on a messy divorce, your partner find more easy to grab material things than fiat currency that is easier to make disappear. All that made capital markets be the place where people invest their money. Until the end of last century -thanks to Bretton Woods agreement- there were half dozen currencies that were world reserves and the USD reigned supreme above all of them . There was always an yield as capital was scarce. Then things started changing fast the results of Globalization started to be felt. continued in the next posting.

To: THE ANT who wrote (6053)	8/9/2020 4:09:52 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 13803

Continuing The confusion stems from people inability to grasp the concept of unwinding. Governments, when they did the wound, did not consider the unwinding. How it would be done nor when. The US -Janet Yellen- tried to unwind doing the Taper Tantrum. Promising for years to increase interest rates -and not doing it- until it actually did just to have to stop and revert. When the USD was printed starting in 2001, the US knew that the world at large could absorb any amount of Dollars the US could print. Remember the Chinese Decade was in full swing. The Law of the Unintended Consequences What was not analysed, and ended up being a surprise, was that a big % of those USD and Euros went around the world inflating all kinds of assets. As a result, the World Bank and IMF looked tiny when compared with what countries, now flush with USD, could do. This was new. The control of the money was moving from those that printed it to the ones who had access to it. The foreign reserves of emerging markets piled up and gave assurances that they could manage their finances without being at the vagaries of sudden capital flights. Argentina, being the exception. This was Unwinding Phase 1. What we have been witnessing in the last 3/4 years is the beginning of the Unwinding Phase 2

To: THE ANT who wrote (6053)	8/9/2020 4:20:58 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 13803

The USD is low vis a vis the basket of currencies because Covid-19 lower the demand for it. Less goods traded means less need for USD The US Index briefly spiked Mar. 20th -at the onset of the pandemic- as money moved into the USD as safe Heaven. Once the world economy tanked, the USD has been going down ever since. Once the world economy picks up and the demand for US increases the Dollar Index will go up to its 96 to 98 band. The USD tanking and gold up is transitory.

To: THE ANT who wrote (6053)	8/25/2020 4:33:57 AM
From: elmatador	1 Recommendation Recommended By robert b furman Respond to of 13803

You are right when you said that once Covid-19 starts getting younger people, who are stronger, the consequences will not be the same as they would require less care, like hospitalizations and ICUs and, ultimately, leading to less deaths. The above would demolish the "Second Wave" narrative as any higher numbers, cannot lead to hospitalizations and ICUs and deaths. But the narrative cannot include nothing like a weakening of the virus's effects. Why that? Because that would derail the need for a vaccine, would mean back to school for all ages, reopening economies across the board. And, last but not the least, would take the bite out of the story: DJT responded wrongly to the virus to elect Biden and Khamala.

To: THE ANT who wrote (6053)	8/29/2020 6:48:58 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13803

Positively, evidence suggests that as many at 40% of cases of dementia can be delayed or averted by changing behaviour earlier in life. The trouble is that public-health campaigns have a patchy record and they do nothing for dementia’s most intractable pre-existing condition—old age. (via The Economist) Not only effecting the elderly, but they are much more likely to have it. By some estimates, 1.7% of 65- to 69-year-olds have dementia and the risk of developing it doubles every five years after that. At present, about 50m people around the world have the condition, a number expected to rise to 82m by 2030 and 150m by 2050. Most of the new cases are in the developing world, where populations are rising and ageing. UNQUOTE I have always thought that dementia had some relation with lifestyle. The thing that you told me: Use it or lose it.