Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (13602)	1/28/1998 10:45:00 PM
From: Ross McEathron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, Haven't talked to you for quite a while, but you got my interest up SO much in the VIX that I have become a daily student of the action and correlations between this index and the S&P 500. I see you have already responded to the question which I was just about to ask so this may be somewhat repetitive, but I also believe that we came really close to a reversal today and barring something really strange happening tommorrow (i.e. some large news item or some huge multinational doubling estimates <gg>), I also think we will complete this up cycle sometime during the day tommorrow and start down...nothing major or ominous, just some minor profit taking most likely. BWDIK <gg> Kinda getting the hang of this thing. Very accurate for short term moves...as in days or weeks...for me so far. Do you believe that the VIX is capable of calling the long term bull and bear legs as well? I went back and looked at April '97 and the only thing I saw that was unusual was the really large reversal day on April 8th...if my data provider is correct anyway. This would have been perhaps a bit too early but a sign that things were starting to change directions anyway. In Oct, it was more obvious that a decline was eminent and a formula I've been toying with gave sell signals on OCT. 23rd, 24th and 27th. My other system, which you are aware of, gave a sell signal on Oct 12th which was a bit too early but definetely got you out of harms way. Now if I could just short those darn IRA's...who says that's speculative? <GG> comments?? Thanks, Ross

To: William H Huebl who wrote (13602)	1/28/1998 11:33:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Bill; Well generally like Barbara said, it not safe to be leveraged or short over a weekend, not safe long but not as bad as often. To many things can change to fast, I may regret not closing spy today, but will give it a chance to retract, but the bulls are on the edge of the woods now and doggone if I would want to be short over the weekend. Man last Friday said down too, and some fool said he was going to stay short, I covered and ran, it got clobbered monday..really clobbered. This is my second try this week, the bears are full of it man, even since DEC5th..I'v made more on the long side than the short side, I think that has to do with the slope of the short side, and the way it turns up is more sharp, you can't catch as much of it, like she hit's and bounces in a less time frame than when she tops and falls. That is with the SPY anyway. It's like you have more time to get out at the top, than to close at the bottom. Heck I closed Friday not because I thought she was at bottom, but because of the week end. Maybe some weeks ago it may have been OK but for the time being this market has broke her downtrend, her lows are steady getting higher, my shorts are getting their butts eat. Go short on a Friday if you wish, not me not even if all the signs say kahuna is here, I'l miss it if it's on a Friday. Jim