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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Technician who wrote (11858)	1/28/1998 9:06:00 PM
From: craig crawford	Respond to of 77400

<< 2) CSCO earnings in a long while WILL BE ABOVE expectations. >> Why do you think that, and don't you think EPS increase of only 27% is pretty simple to beat? C$CO is only forecast to earn 20% more in 1999 than in 1998. Expectations are being ratcheted down yet the stock keeps rising. What happened to the 30-50% growth rate that we used to hear about? C$CO needs to beat estimates by 1 cent just to meet that 30% growth rate in earnings. Soon the disparity between expectations and valuations will be too great for C$CO to overcome. I can understand the case being made for it being a one-quarter phenomenon but I seem to see a pattern of dramatically slowing growth for C$CO. << 3) The chart and the volume show a classic uptrend >> Uptrends are uptrends until they cease being uptrends. Just before they cease being uptrends they still look good. Does anyone remember when Intel's all time high was 165? (pre-split) I remember INTC got bid to new highs (somewhere around 170) only to be knocked down to 140 rather quickly. How about MSFT? Does anyone remember when it ran up to 151 last summer? It ran up about 20 points in about a week just before earnings, setting a new high. Earnings were good (as usual with MSFT) but the stock quickly collapsed 15 points and eventually dropped over 30 points. Still hasn't made new highs. Obviously no set of circumstances are the same but you have just seen two examples of high tech lynchpins that made new highs only to be quickly beaten back down. I don't see why it's so far fetched for C$CO to do the same.