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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pogeu Mahone who wrote (161086)	8/9/2020 10:24:55 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217818

Pay no attention to inflation, for there is no inflation. The fact that prices are going up is because the quality of stuff is going up. In the meantime let us see if inflation can be force-fed into the system by choking off oil import, upping everyone’s motoring power, compelling them to ask for raises, which then impels employers to take more risks, and and and who knows what but worth a what the heck try Ask QAnon :0) bloomberg.com Saudi Arabia Turns Off America’s Oil Taps Again The strategy worked wonders in 2017. It will be more challenging this time around unless the pandemic eases its grip on oil demand. Julian LeeAugust 8, 2020, 10:00 PM PDT Saudi crude flows to the U.S. dwindle. Photographer: Jean-Francois Monier/AFP via Getty Images LISTEN TO ARTICLE For the second time in three years, Saudi Arabia is slashing the volume of crude it’s sending to America in an attempt to force down stockpiles in the world’s most visible oil market and thereby hasten the rebalancing of supply and demand. Weekly U.S. oil inventory data — usually published on a Wednesday and covering the period up to the previous Friday — is routinely pored over by oil analysts and traders alike. Despite their shortcomings, the figures give the most up-to-date picture of changes in the oil balance and influence trading decisions and crude prices around the world. Shifts in the flow of crude into and out of American ports can have a big impact on the level of U.S. inventories. Riyadh has clearly decided it’s time to do its bit to bring them down from heights reached in May and June, when the coronavirus pandemic and the kingdom’s own output hike combined to drive the fastest ever surge in U.S. commercial crude stockpiles. In the five weeks between March 20 and April 24, the inventories increased at a rate of 2.1 million barrels a day and by the first week of June it was hitting new highs. Down the Other SideCommercial crude stockpiles surged by more than 25% from January to June. Now they need to come down again Source: Energy Information Administration Excess stockpiles act as a drag on oil prices and the most visible stockpiles are in the U.S. because the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration reports levels weekly. That’s in stark contrast to other places around the world where the data are much less timely, if they are published at all. China, for example, stopped divulging official data on inventory levels in 2017. It’s no wonder then that Saudi Arabia should focus on the U.S. This is precisely the same policy that it adopted three years ago, shortly after the wider OPEC+ alliance was formed and its first output deal was running into trouble. At the time, members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and 10 non-OPEC allies, including Russia and Mexico, agreed to cut their production by 1.66 million barrels a day from the start of 2017 to bring down swollen global oil inventories built up as a result of the first U.S. shale boom. Poor implementation of the cuts and rising U.S. oil production meant inventories kept on growing, despite OPEC making its first output reduction in eight years. Fast forward to today and the reduction in the flow of Saudi oil to the U.S. is dramatic. In May and June tankers full of Saudi crude were arriving off the Gulf and West coasts of the U.S. almost daily, sometimes more than one a day. But in July and August that has dwindled to little more than one a week, as the chart below shows. Dwindling FlowThe arrival of Saudi crude off the U.S. coast has slowed to a trickle from the flood seen in May and June Source: Tanker tracking data monitored by Bloomberg That surge in ships, which I wrote about here, briefly drove U.S. imports of Saudi crude close to a six-year high, adding to the upward push on stockpiles. But it was short-lived and imports in the last week of July were just 190,000 barrels a day, their second-lowest level in weekly data that extends back a decade. After the SurgeThe surge that took imports from Saudi Arabia close to a six-year high has come to a grinding halt Source: Energy Information Administration The figure could fall even further in the coming weeks. There are only 6 tankers carrying 9 million barrels of Saudi crude currently showing a U.S. port as their destination, according to tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg. With a journey time of about six weeks from the Persian Gulf to any of the major U.S. oil ports, that’s all the Saudi crude that’s likely to arrive by mid-September. And things aren’t likely to improve much after that. In setting its official crude prices for September, Saudi Arabia has made significant cuts to prices for European customers, where it’s competing with Russia, and smaller ones for buyers in Asia. But the kingdom has kept prices for the U.S. unchanged from last month. Cut-Price CrudeSaudi Arabia cut September crude prices for everyone outside the U.S. Source: Saudi Aramco Note: Official selling prices are set as differentials to regional benchmarks; ICE Brent for Europe, the Oman/Dubai average for Asia, and the Argus Sour Crude Index (ASCI) for the U.S. By doing so, Saudi Arabia is ensuring that its crude remains uncompetitive against domestic heavy sour grades from the Gulf of Mexico, or imports from Canada, in a market where the hoped-for recovery in demand has stalled. The leaders of Saudi Arabia and the U.S. both want to see oil prices rising from current levels — the kingdom’s budget still depends on oil revenues and the U.S. shale industry desperately needs higher prices to recover. President Donald Trump might be quite happy to see crude imports from Saudi Arabia curtailed — after all, it would feed in nicely to his rhetoric on U.S. energy dominance. By once again focusing its output cuts on the U.S. market, Riyadh is hoping to repeat the success of the second half of 2017, when oil prices rose by 51% from a low of $44.82 in mid-June to $67.87 by the end of the year. Unless the Covid-19 pandemic eases its grip on oil demand, Saudi Arabia may find 2020 more of a challenge. This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners. To contact the author of this story: Julian Lee at jlee1627@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: Melissa Pozsgay at mpozsgay@bloomberg.net Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. LEARN MORE Sent from my iPad

To: Pogeu Mahone who wrote (161086)	8/9/2020 1:58:45 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217818

One washing machine does not inflation make. The best macro voice on the planet, Lacy Hunt, delivers the goods. His interview begins at 23:00. He's never been wrong, as far as I know. First deflation, then hyperinflation if the Federal Reserve statutory scheme allows it to directly print cash. It cannot do so at this time. The Bank of England is almost there. youtube.com

To: Pogeu Mahone who wrote (161086)	8/9/2020 2:46:15 PM
From: Julius Wong	Respond to of 217818

Effects of the 2018 Tariffs on Washing Machines Three economists, Aaron Flaanen (Federal Reserve Board), Ali Hortaçsu (University of Chicago), and Felix Tintelnot (University of Chicago) just published a working paper on the effects of these tariffs: “The Production Relocation and Price Effects of U.S. Trade Policy: The Case of Washing Machines.” Their econometric results are not unexpected, but with a twist: We find that in response to the 2018 tariffs … , the price of washers rose by nearly 12 percent; the price of dryers—a complementary good not subject to tariffs—increased by an equivalent amount. Instead of increasing washer prices by 25%, domestic manufacturers apparently increased them by 12%, and hid another 12% increase on a good of roughly the same price that is usually bought along with a new washer. Why competition did not prevent this differential pricing is unexplained; perhaps there is little competition among the three producers of this industry, especially given the tariff protection? econlib.org