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To: aladin who wrote (723210)	8/10/2020 4:45:24 PM
From: kech	Respond to of 793912

The problem I heard when we talked about recovered awhile back is I think active are only reclassified as recovered after two negative tests. Apparently there may not be as much interest to get the two negative tests as there was to get the first positive one, so a lot of active cases just stay active.

To: aladin who wrote (723210)	8/10/2020 5:07:50 PM
From: skinowski	Respond to of 793912

OK, I see. You know, ever since January I struggled with the concept of defining “Recovered”. I don’t know what their criteria are. Can’t be the discharge from the hospital - not all of them were hospitalized. To me, with CoViD, recovered means survived and improved. How can they have 52K recovered out of 540K cases if 8K died? I suspect it’s related to someone filling out a line in a report, rather than reality. I’d say, all who haven’t died are either recovered - or, hopefully, en route to recovery :) There is also the issue of actual infections. Last I saw, the CDC still used the multiplier of 10 - that is, for each case tested and confirmed, there will be 10 who were never diagnosed. That would bring the total from 540K closer to 6 million, which is close to 28% of the population. Since, lately, they started testing more, I’d guess the multiplier may have come down some. Another number I’ve seen mentioned was 8. That would bring the average down to a little over 9. Let’s say, total infections become 5.5 million. That would be under 26% of the population. As long as we’re playing with numbers, let’s take the lower estimate, 5.5 million - and estimate Infection Fatality rate. It’s 0.15%. In the ballpark of a regular flu. Except, flu kills higher percentages of younger people. I say again - down with their CYA lockdowns.