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Strategies & Market Trends : Dino's Bar & Grill -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Goose94 who wrote (92216)	9/14/2020 6:34:59 PM
From: Goose94	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 202710

Coffee: Top in? On the heels of a bearish divergence in admittedly short-term momentum discussed in 08-Sep’s Technical Webcast, today’s relapse leaves a mere retest of 04-Sep’s ?135.40? high in its wake as a prospective (B- or 2nd-Wave) correction within a peak/reversal threat that could be relatively major in scope. Per such, we’re identifying that ?135.45? high as our new short-term risk parameter from which traders can base non-bullish decisions like long-covers and new bearish punts. This said, a break below 08-Sep’s ?127.20? initial counter-trend low remains minimally required to ?confirm even the intermediate-term trend as down and threaten Jun-Sep’s broader, impressive uptrend. However, ancillary evidence including: ?the market’s proximity to the upper-quarter of the past couple years’ range amidst an historically frothy (85%) reading in our RJO Bullish Sentiment Index of the hot Managed Money positions reportable to the CFTC and an arguably complete 5-wave Elliott sequence up from 15-Jun’s 94.55 low is compelling and complicit in a peak/reversal-threat environment that would warn of at least a major correction of a 2-1/2-month, 40-cent rally that could easily revert the market back to the (110-to-115) middle-half bowels of the 2-year range. These issues considered, traders are advised to neutralize all previously recommended bullish exposure and move to a new bearish policy and exposure on the immediate break below 127.20. a subsequent recovery above at least Fri’s 132.55 corrective high and certainly 04-Sep’s 135.45 high is required to threaten and then negate this new bearish policy and warrant its cover. In lieu of such strength, we believe this is a favorable risk/reward opportunity from the bear side that could produce relatively steep losses in the weeks and perhaps months ahead. RJO Market Insights