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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bull_dozer who wrote (161420)	8/19/2020 4:30:50 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 219714

Overarching macro in my book is that the world is in a depression camouflaged by flooding of fiat money inflation, and at some juncture the capital markets, following the traded goods and services markets, might give an expression that causes anguish, compelling the authorities to double-down, for there be no viable alternative, as nothing else matters usdebtclock.org (interesting to note again that Team China has US$ 250 ‘T’ trillion of collateral-good ‘money’ to release by way of one-off rural land reform whereas the other entities must first seize land before can do same, and so shall do anyway - thus buy gold against all fiat money). Must expect inflation of bacon, copper, iron, gold, palladium, platinum, rare earths, sand, silver, etc etc, but not Tesla. Am undecided about oil and natural gas, as those depends on what happens where how on production sides and I find more complicated than gold in every sense. My first post circa 2011 re “China rural land reform” Message 27675006 Circa 2013 Message 29283719 Circa 2014 Message 29443221 Circa 2015 Message 30231862 Circa 2016 Message 30904256 Circa 2017 Message 30998854 Again but illuminating, 2017 Message 31024073 Circa 2018 Message 31633216 Circa 2019 Message 31947590 Circa 2019 Message 32385658 (Apple & Huawei) Circa 2019 Message 32438427 (Ants Financial / digital RMB, etc. Ants is all about rural wealth creation, a subsidiary of Alibaba, soon to be listed on 0388.HK) Circa 2020 Message 32732163 ... and as we zip to 2026 and wade across towards 2032 The concern is that Team China, still returning to natural size, is the only large economy still in normal monetary space, with bank deposits sporting 3% yield. I refrain from shorting AAPL because I like and buy the products, and w/ CoVid doing whatever appears to be doing, needs for home IT upgrades ought to be quite strong even as consumers presumably cautious about events no longer under control. Parents must stretch to do what they must do for the kids until they can stretch no more. As to continuing read of the same script, am guessing ... - Fewer folks need to go places by expensive go carts to risk CoVid when gasoline is cheap - Lots of EV competition coming up per already clear and present developments - Trade / Tech / Capital wars may hit AAPL, and can also smack TSLA - Capital war cannot do much to AAPL but can hurt TSLA - CoVid might not be a big deal to humans, does affect human interactions and therefore commercial transactions, and so does and shall matter to financial markets - Evolving capital war might have, no surprise, effects on capital markets - Lead-ups to elections matter, and 2020 USA is the show to watch, and November is the month that encapsulates before and after Given above, I did below yesterday, initiated or otherwise added to some longer-term positions knowing full-well they might tank 9988 is Alibaba finance.yahoo.com , the same BABA finance.yahoo.com in Team USA political gun sight, that which is providing connectivity to the world irrespective of what Team USA does, and which should tend to compel Team USA further weaponising the dollar, and it would not matter given Ants Financial / digital RMB initiatives in pipeline 0700 is Tencent finance.yahoo.com , owner of WeChat, and I expect to feast at one of co-founders’ home 30th August, the day after my home-quarantine ends 0388 is HKEX finance.yahoo.com about which I have noted since forever ago, that which depends on stock trading volume, and volume should continue to rise as Team USA China-sell drive more listings and customers to Team HK Also shorted puts on above shares at close to the money, to either reduce cost or to get more of the underlying - do not much care which 6185 finance.yahoo.com is CanSino, and its CoVid vaccine might sell a few billion doses, and keep selling every year Did nothing about 0288 WH Group finance.yahoo.com Team China owner of Smithfield (pork and bacon and such) because I do not know whether / how bacon might be weaponised / politicized - communist bacon made in America sounds about the same at a distance as CCP TikTok-ing Team USA The entirety of above buys and prospective put-exercises are financed by cloud-ATM operations this night (NY afternoon just now) Bought protective BABA (Alibaba) puts bridging the USA election before / after, anticipating Team USA institutions to China-sell-China-sell-China-sell, and talks of China-sell to be highly visible in weaponised / politicized MSM Bought GDX puts, to hedge against rubbishing-talk against gold, the true, eternal, and faithful Sold plenty of short-term TSLA calls to finance the entirety of all above trades, and leaving enough for walk-around cash or physical gold buys depending on pricing, as since the cloud-ATM opportunity is come-hither inviting w/ TSLA reaching new highs for no particularly good reasons I could have kept it simple and add more beautiful coins in cute canisters sporting own branded but superfluous polishing cloth. Thinking of such as the Vitamin D3 of macro, but need to do more with still-healthy TSLA in order to facilitate more cost-less accumulation. I wish Elon well.

To: bull_dozer who wrote (161420)

8/24/2020 2:15:11 AM

From: TobagoJack

Respond to of 219714

The purchasing of Tencent / WeChat at 508 was timely, so far, with this day gauging at finance.yahoo.com 539 so far 6%, and a 77% return on the shorted Put options

In the meantime, folks doing same sort of trade on BABA / 9988 Message 32891214

Several of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s biggest investors have converted billions of dollars in U.S. shares for Hong Kong stock in part to avoid potential U.S. sanctions and de-listings of major Chinese technology companies.

Given that the daily transaction in NYSE of BABA is about 14% of the entire transaction of all shares on HKEX (0388.HK) I am positioned about as well as can, long 0388.hk and 9988.hk, and long BABA puts in USA

0388 should continue to pay out even as in-law and wife trading down a sliver, because there are so many more Team China companies forced to refugee from NYSE / Nasdaq to HKEX, even as more IPO-ing in USA to gather funding.

This is fun, real-time macro within context of wagers positioned

bloomberg.com

Alibaba Investors Swap U.S.-Listed Shares for Hong Kong

Several of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s biggest investors have converted billions of dollars in U.S. shares for Hong Kong stock in part to avoid potential U.S. sanctions and de-listings of major Chinese technology companies.

Temasek Group Holdings Pte., Baillie Gifford & Co., and Matthews Asia are among the major shareholders that have swapped stakes in the Chinese e-commerce giant to take advantage of new rules easing the switch following Alibaba’s listing in Hong Kong last year. Geopolitics is contributing to the shift, according to people familiar with the moves.

“Lots of long-term fund managers, especially the ones whose fund managers are based in Asia, are switching or considering switching from ADRs into Hong Kong-listed shares,” said Nelson Yan, head of offshore capital markets investment at Creditease Wealth Management (Hong Kong) Ltd., referring to American Depositary Receipts. “Demand for these ADRs in the U.S. is now clouded by the politics.”

The Alibaba stock shifts are a sign that the Trump administration’s fierce rhetoric against Chinese tech firms is prompting investors to take steps to avoid the potential fallout. At the same time, as Chinese companies seek more dual listings in Hong Kong, the moves threaten to drain liquidity of the New York shares.

Baillie MoveBaillie Gifford, whose partner and portfolio manager James Anderson told Bloomberg Television in March that Alibaba could become a $2 trillion company, swapped 10.4 million U.S.-listed shares worth about $2.67 billion in the second quarter. That’s about a fifth of its stake, and is the biggest change since it first bought shares in 2014.

The money manager, among Alibaba’s largest shareholders, converted the stock to the Hong Kong-listed shares, according to a person familiar with the move. A spokesperson for the Edinburgh-based firm declined to comment.

A spokesman for Singapore’s state-owned investor Temasek confirmed that it swapped half of its stake representing 12.1 million shares -- worth about $3 billion -- from the U.S. to Hong Kong, declining to comment further.

Read More:

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The issue has been top of mind for many institutional investors since May when the Senate overwhelmingly approved S.945 -- a bill that could lead to Chinese companies being barred from listing on U.S. exchanges. Conditions include being able to certify that they aren’t under the control of foreign governments and allowing the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board to audit the business.

Matthews Asia, which manages about $23.4 billion, divested almost three quarters of its U.S. Alibaba shares in the second quarter, worth about $700 million. Much of that is now held in H-shares in Hong Kong and in its Pacific Tiger Fund, whose lead manager is Sharat Shroff.

“Venue doesn’t really matter a whole lot – it’s about getting access to liquidity and it’s about getting access to the right pricing mechanism so we continue to have a position in Alibaba both through the Hong Kong listing as well as the listing in the U.S.,” Shroff told clients in a July webcast.

Keywise Capital Management, which oversees $1.5 billion for global investors including sovereign wealth funds and endowments, plans to invest in the Hong Kong shares of dual- listed Chinese companies, said founder and Chief Investment Officer Zheng Fang. The increased U.S. scrutiny of Chinese ADRs has led to investor concerns about the potential risks of holding these securities, he said.

Stock ConnectThe Hong Kong shares may also get a boost from MSCI’s plan to reduce the Chinese ADR weightings in its indexes, while raising Hong Kong stocks, he said. Once listed in Hong Kong, those companies may be included in the stock connect scheme with China, allowing them to attract support from mainland Chinese investors, he added.

Myriad Asset Management, the hedge fund firm led by Carl Huttenlocher, also swapped most of its Alibaba ADRs for Hong Kong shares, said a person with knowledge of the matter. With more of Alibaba’s peers listed in Hong Kong, it’ll become easier to compare valuations and do hedged trades, the person said.

The stock moves are already boosting Aliababa’s trading in Hong Kong. On a 50-day moving average basis, Hong Kong’s daily turnover now accounts for about 17% of the company’s total trading, up from a low of 13% in early June.

The float has also risen. Alibaba’s shares trading in Hong Kong have jumped 4.3 times to 2.5 billion, according to data disclosed with the Hong Kong exchange as of Friday. Hong Kong shares now account for about 12% of Alibaba’s total float, compared with 2% before.

Investors in the Hong Kong shares have been rewarded, with the stock gaining 45% since the November listing, compared with a 35% jump in the U.S. stock over the same period in local currency terms. The Hong Kong shares may attract even more institutional investors when Alibaba joins the Hang Seng Index on Sept. 7

Alibaba jumped 3.6% to $33.81 in Hong Kong Monday.

“The majority of its shares are still in the U.S., but the relocation is already happening and that’s driven by long-term holders,” said Kenny Wen, Hong Kong-based strategist at Everbright Sun Hung Kai Co. “In the very long run, we can’t exclude the possibility for Hong Kong to become the primary listing place for Alibaba.”

(Updates with stock move in 16th paragraph)

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