To: Mama Bear who wrote (4997 ) 1/29/1998 10:52:00 AM From: bill banks Read Replies (1) | Respond to
i have been following the posts regarding fibr since last june and have decided to join the fray with some thoughts. i have been involved with and have been active in these shares for a very long period of time (actually participated in their ipo in 1987). my position has been to go long size when i have seen both the fundamental and technical signs align and to sit with no shares for extended periods when i felt all was not well..... currently am long for both what i believe are strong fundamentals and technicals. fundamentally, i think fibr has 4 potential home runs. gigamux, net-arm, and iqx are real and if sales are produced the income based on gross margins in excess of 50% should be astounding. i will leave abcn out of my consideration for now as the asian crisis has at least postponed any oportunity for real insight for at least six months. from the technical side i use bar charting with some alterations, i only look at 50, 100, and 200 moving averages, and i convert my rsi, and macd to a 14-day calc. verses the industry standard of 9 days. this seems to mathematically remove false signals. more importantly i use point and figure work as the statistically numbers are more reliable and most commitments are based on confirmation that demand and or supply are in control of the direction of the share price. the move from 2.125 to 6.25 on strong volume was staggerring and sts this stock up for a very strong upside if we can now see a print at 6.5 (92.7% probability of 25% plus to the upside in short order-- 2-3 months-- bearish signal reversal). the move down from the 6.25 was significant in that it held at a level above 3.5 and was a strong correction of the explosive move up. the volume in the stock should be a huge indicator that it is no longer the individual player but more so institutions ( look for filings at he end of march, big boys are awful slow to report). as for the shorts, probably will never go away but they do provide synthetic float as they have creted 1.6m. shares that somebody bought and they eventually will have to buy back.
