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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (161731)	8/26/2020 3:53:32 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218723

Re <<I just hope we don't end up in a deflationary spiral, a disaster for all>> Yeup. Doom-loop Diaper Debt Deflationary (“DDDD”) spiral must be fought to the last person standing, presumably the central bankers, and then hanging the central bankers would be the quaint old-fashioned way. ‘They’ are trying to do a good job in that fight, talking. Must show sincerity earlier in suitably plus more copious wallops. My Jack was looking at the global meter usdebtclock.org earlier this night and noted “the clock seems to be moving slower”. “Optical illusion” I responded. I discussed w/ him “rate of change” vs “change in rate of change”. It was a short discussion. Powell best make it good, and mouth the obvious, that “whatever it takes is whatever called for for as long as necessary and without any constraints just because” Just emulate kamakazi Japan. The place is still fine at 2.6X+ the debt load of USA, and 5+X of China, no problems but for the never-mind-oddity that the elderly often prefer jailing for minor offenses because sustenance is free, and under roof, w/ medical care and companionship of peers bbc.com I have been in GEO finance.yahoo.com and Annaly finance.yahoo.com equities, bracketed by puts / calls, for the dividends, because they best express one part of the anti-DDDD struggle, higher positive carry relative to T-bill rates. In GEO’s case, unlike hotel and mall REITs trashed, should expect solid growth underpinned by the same energy that powers gold. I do not know what GEO measures are w/r to CoVid or if it gets government MMT support based on CoVid cost-plus. Cloud on the horizon might be that the electorates referendum-decide to simultaneously defund police and boycott GEO, so as to balance the budget. Just do not know. The old saying I keep in mind is that California is a leader and leading indicator, and so in many ways the State’s 2020 November exercise is much more interesting than the national version. Just that California is limited in its borrowing capacity by the market, cannot print (well, technically can, by pay-in-kind, but we cross that bridge later), and can only tax until can tax no more. The simultaneous equations of tax and chaos is set in stone, along w/ tyranny. Cost of sunshine shall inflate even as anti-DDDD protocol in operation, accelerating DDDD in some sense. Alternatively California can put waste to Proposition 13, trigger DDDD, let the banks pickup the tab, transmit distress to beyond the state borders, and wait for all-in bailout from the nation and world. Let’s see what if anything California chooses ocregister.com The national election is less meaningful given the nature of the the issues tee-ed up.

To: carranza2 who wrote (161731)	8/27/2020 8:20:30 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218723

Two anti-gold stories One video bloomberg.com format One below ... bloomberg.com Gold Is Bigger Bubble Than Tech, Says $63 Billion Asset Manager Aoyon Ashraf August 27, 2020, 1:49 AM GMT+8 Carillon Tower Advisers Inc. portfolio specialist Matt Orton says the excitement around gold has made it a bigger bubble than tech stocks. Photographer: Paul Yeung/Bloomberg LISTEN TO ARTICLE Carillon Tower Advisers Inc. portfolio specialist Matt Orton is a rare critic when it comes to gold’s meteoric rise this year. He says excitement around the metal has made it a bigger bubble than tech stocks. Orton, who is “quite bullish” on tech stocks, thinks the price of gold has gotten disconnected from fundamentals. The flow of funds into gold “shows how much enthusiasm and/or speculation has been going into the gold complex,” Orton said in an interview. His firm has more than $63 billion under management and is based in St. Petersburg, Florida. “Everyone talks about the bubble in technology stocks,” but the tech sector is “rising because a lot of these companies have been able to increase their market shares during Covid,” Orton said. The tech firms also had strong earnings, providing higher visibility to their growth profile, Orton said. Gold’s rally, on the other hand, could “completely derail” once risk factors driving investors to safe havens ease, including lower rates and the weaker U.S. dollar. Here are other details from the interview: Orton recommends investors hedge their portfolio by diversifying, rather than allocating money into gold. He also thinks investors should keep some cash in “some form of low-duration assets,” which they can redeploy when needed.In terms of “tactical asset allocation,” Orton recommends overweighting equities with appropriate diversifications.Within equities, his preferred sectors are tech and health care. He thinks tech stocks with IT services look interesting as they have underperformed peers and have leverage to the U.S. economy.In health care, stocks in the equipment business are “particularly interesting” as they have exposure to “durable themes” such as chronic disease treatments.Orton’s least-favorite sector is mid- to small-cap financial stocks because they will struggle in the low interest rate environment. He also doesn’t recommend investor exposure to the energy sector. Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. LEARN MORE Sent from my iPad

To: carranza2 who wrote (161731)	8/28/2020 4:00:17 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218723

Re <<Deflationary gap, the gap between actual and theoretical output at full employment ... overarching macro ... Fed will do whatever it can to promote inflation ... more debt ... zero bound interest rates ... less bang for the buck ... run out of steam. A sugar-high ... deflationary gap will be with us for years ... only money worth anything will be real money, gold and silver. I just hope we don't end up in a deflationary spiral, a disaster for all>> Gold wants and needs to correct, but are not being allowed, so milling time, setting us up for interim resolution closer to November revelation, as if the revelation matters irrespective. Currently my understanding is that should the Democrats gain absolute control, all socialist hell breaks loose, and if the Republicans manage to hold on senate and WH, a lot of presidential executive orders would flow forth. bloomberg.com Gold Advances as Investors Weigh Fed’s New Approach on Inflation Ranjeetha Pakiam 28 August 2020, 10:02 GMT+8 Gold climbed as investors weighed the impact of the Federal Reserve’s new approach to setting U.S. monetary policy, with a more relaxed stance on inflation. Chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed will seek inflation that averages 2% over time, a step that implies allowing for price gains to overshoot. He also noted that “if excessive inflationary pressures were to build or inflation expectations were to ratchet above levels consistent with our goal,” the central bank wouldn’t hesitate to act. Bullion swung sharply Thursday as investors parsed the speech delivered virtually for the Fed’s annual policy symposium traditionally held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. It rallied to an all-time high earlier this month as governments and central banks employed stimulus measures to curb the coronavirus pandemic’s damage on economies. Higher inflation tolerance and low interest rates should see U.S. real yields fall in the medium-to-longer term, which is supportive of gold, said Vivek Dhar, an analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Still, the fact that the Fed will also act if there are inflationary pressures adds doubt to how high U.S. 10-year inflation expectations can reach, he said. “The near V-shape rebound in U.S. 10-year inflation expectations since mid-March is at risk of stalling,” said Dhar. “This is negative for gold and has outweighed the Fed’s inflation-tolerance comments likely because gold markets weren’t expecting Powell’s intolerance for inflation getting too high.” Spot gold advanced 0.6% to $1,941 an ounce at 12:28 p.m. in Singapore. On Thursday, prices slumped as much as 2.3% after rising 1.1%. The Fed’s shift to let inflation and employment run higher may signal that policy makers will keep interest rates low for years to come, lifting the appeal of non-interest-bearing gold. “Gold bulls initially rejoiced the announcement of seeking inflation to average 2% over time, but then quickly came crashing down after noting the inflation overshoots could be moderate,” Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda Corp., said in a note. After the “record long expansion failed to yield inflation, Wall Street is skeptical that the Fed will really see inflation anytime soon even when the economy is beyond the coronavirus.” Read more: Fed’s Jackson Hole Reboot to Lift Inflation Faces Skepticism Since the central bank officially set its inflation target at 2% in 2012, the Fed’s preferred measure of price increases has consistently fallen short of that objective, averaging just 1.4%. That challenge was part of the impetus for the strategy review. Low inflation contributes to low interest rates, which reduces the Fed’s ability to fight off economic downturns -- potentially making them deeper and longer. “While the Fed will likely need to ramp up their asset purchases to support the economy, they didn’t provide any signs that will happen soon,” Moya said. “Gold’s path back to record high territory is still there, it will just take a while longer to get there.” Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. LEARN MORE

To: carranza2 who wrote (161731)	8/30/2020 8:29:00 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218723

What does the police organization know? When did it start knowing? And will double allocation to 10%? Unclear to me it is any brilliant idea to defund police, shatter police pension, tolerate attacks against them, and making their jobs generally more difficult even as society goes pear-shape. Am absolutely not saying or tolerating bad apples amongst police. Let’s watch. zerohedge.com $16 Billion Ohio Police & Fire Pension Fund Approves A 5% Allocation For Gold Ohio’s $16 billion Police & Fire Pension Fund is following in the steps of Warren Buffett and making a big statement about owning gold. It has approved a 5% allocation to gold to help diversify the fund's portfolio and to "hedge against the risk of inflation" according to Bloomberg. The change was approved as "the first step" in an ongoing asset review that was presented to the fund's board on August 26. The fund was following the advice of its investment consultant, Wilshire Assocaites, in adding the gold allocation, according to Pensions & Investments. Additionally, the fund plans on adding the gold stake by borrowing; the fund is reportedly increasing its leverage from 20% to 25% to make the change. "No new manager has been selected, and there currently is no timeline for implementing this change," P&I reported. Buffett's move into gold has opened the door for fund managers to follow suit. Except, instead of playing in a hundred trillion dollar equity market, they are dealing with barely over $1 trillion in investable gold. This means that if the fund becomes a trend setter in the industry and if others follow suit, look out above. Peter Schiff said on a recent podcast: "Warren Buffett seems to have a very good understanding of inflation. He doesn't regard it as rising prices, he regards it as money supply. He's talked about inflation as a hidden tax on savers. As a cruel tax. He understands the loss of value of money. He basically says that that's inflation: the erosion of purchasing power of money. I think Buffett now has a much darker outlook on inflation than he did in the past." "Buffett is now of the opinion that inflation is going to be so high that gold is going to be particularly important to own, rather than just owning businesses," he says. You can listen to Schiff's comments here: If the inflation message starts to become clear to pension funds and main street asset managers, we could see a major sea change in psychology regarding gold as an investment. Additionally, Rick Rule recently commentedabout exactly how under-owned gold was in the U.S.: "A major bank study, which I read, and I’ve quoted it before in interviews with you, says that between 0.3%-0.5% of savings and investment assets in the United States involve precious metals or precious metals securities." He continued: "That may have gone up because the denominator has declined the value, the Dow is an example, but the three decade-long mean was between 1.5%-2%. So gold is still very broadly under-owned, and I would suggest it’s even under-owned among people who are listening to this broadcast." But in plain English, another way to say it is that there simply isn't enough gold available in the world for every pension fund to make the same 5% allocation. Sent from my iPhone