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Technology Stocks : CheckFree (CKFR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: King David who wrote (1407)	1/29/1998 10:52:00 AM
From: AugustWest	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8545

KD, I may not be the most qualified to anwser your question regarding how many people will sign up for the service, but this is my view in relation to your parents not using the ATM(or best friend as I've heard friends refer to itas): Human nature resists change, it is the proverbial dark room, or the unknown that turns the average person off in the begining. No I don't believe we will see the initial surge some bulls claim will happen. Would be nice, but I shant hold my breath. Not with standing though, we are generally like a heard of cattle though, and once the group turns the corner, the majority do follow. The few that don't just keep going in the same dirrection previously charted. even over a cliff if it's in the path. I suppose what I'm saying is this: If you look, you can still find manual type writers being used. But as proven in the past 20 years or so, they have become little more than antiques. No doubt being used by antiques as well. Look at how long it took the majority of people to get comfortable using their ATMs. Not long. I think we can look to them[ATM] for some base to formulate a user %. Perhaps a little slower as the bill payer must first have a P.C.(generally speaking.) But, if you already have a p.c., and aren't too parinoid that someone is monitoring your records, it would only make sense to convert to on-line bill paying. No?August.

To: King David who wrote (1407)	1/29/1998 11:08:00 AM
From: Brooks Jackson	Respond to of 8545

King David: Good to hear from you again. I think you are ALMOST spot-on when you say: "the ultimate question in my mind is still 'are there enough people willing to use this type of service to drive the transaction volumes and stock price skywards in a hurry?'" Just change "in a hurry" to "inexorably" and I would answer the question "yes, absolutely." IMO, there are already enough people using Quicken, Managing Your Money, electronic brokerages, and other electronic commerce (such as Premier Travel, Amazon and so forth) to allow CKFR to grow at its current rate -- or more likely, an ACCELERATING rate -- for years to come. Yes, there will always be a large fraction (25%?) of the population whose VCR's will blink 12:00 forever, and who will never use PC banking, billpay or e-bill. But even if its 50%, that leaves room to double, redouble and re-re-double the current customer base for a good long time. And given how cheaply CKFR can process transactions at the margin, a doubling of the customer base will produce an exponential increase in net income. All IMO, of course. I think CKFR is cheap at current prices. And I think it is quite significant that Kight says CKFR is signing up three billers for every one signed up by Gates. Kight impresses me more and more, and MSFDC seems IMO to be struggling.

To: King David who wrote (1407)	1/29/1998 11:12:00 AM
From: Kurt Peterson	Respond to of 8545

You are right about mainstream acceptance of home banking and bill payment. It is probably used by < 1% of Americans today. But, if you listened to the most recent CKFR earnings conference call you heard Pete Kight say that he is comfortable with earnings projections that CKFR will break even this quarter and turn its first operating profit the following quarter. He also said that he is comfortable with subscriber growth in the 10 to 15% per quarter range. So even without mainstream acceptance yet, CKFR is heading in the right direction. Now imagine what the earnings will be 1,2 or 3 years from now if the growth rate does nothing but stay the same. The growth in earnings should be impressive. Then take into consideration all of the recent predictions about PC and internet usage and the growth in subscribers that CKFR will experience if that comes true. It will be even higher than the growth rate Pete says he is comfortable with. That, in turn, should yield even higher earnings growth. So, even if adoption by consumers stays at the rate it is today, CKFR's earnings will grow and the stock price should rise with it. If subscriber growth accelerates, earnings will grow even faster, and the stock price should follow.