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Strategies & Market Trends : Dino's Bar & Grill -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Goose94 who wrote (93358)	9/23/2020 9:30:51 AM
From: Goose94	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 202790

Dr. Copper: Top Pickin’ Overnight’s relapse below Mon and last week’s 3.-125-area lows and support confirms a bearish divergence in very short-term momentum. This mo failure defines Mon’s ?3.1210? high as one of developing importance and a micro risk parameter from which non-bullish decisions like long-covers and cautious bearish punts can now be objectively based and managed. And while this momentum divergence is of a grossly insufficient SCALE to conclude anything more than another interim corrective setback, the market’s gross failure to sustain Fri/Mon’s break above THREE WEEKS of former 3.09-handle-area resistance-turned-support is just one of a number of factors that warn that today’s admittedly micro weakness could be the start of a more protracted correction or reversal lower.? Only a glance at the daily log chart above and weekly chart below is needed to see that today’s micro mo failure barely registers. Indeed, a failure below 03-Sep’s ?2.9535? corrective low remains minimally required to confirm a bearish divergence in daily momentum. And given the magnitude of the 6-month uptrend from 19-Mar’s 1.9725 low, even a sub-2.9535 failure would only allow us to conclude the end of the uptrend from 13-Aug’s ?2.7690? next larger-degree corrective low. That ?2.7690? corrective low remains intact as THE longer-term risk parameter this market needs to fail below to, in fact, break the 6-month uptrend. HOWEVER, the combination of: clearly waning upside momentum on both a daily and weekly basis amidst? historically frothy sentiment/contrary opinion levels not seen in at least TWO YEARS and the prospect that the market has completed or is near completing a textbook 5-wave Elliott sequence up from 19-Mar’s 1.9725 low is unique and compelling and must be acknowledged as a clear warning of a peak/correction/reversal threat that could be major in scope. Further weakness below ?2.9535? will be the next reinforcing step in the regard while commensurately larger-degree weakness below ?2.7690? will confirm these suspicions and expose at least a major correction of the entire uptrend from 1.9725. These issues considered, we believe the risk/reward merits of ?maintaining a bullish policy and exposure have become questionable enough to warrant moving to a neutral/sideline position. A cautious bearish position, perhaps via an option strategy, is also advised with a recovery above 3.1210 required to negate this call, reinstate the bull and expose potentially sharp gains thereafter. In lieu of such 3.1210 strength and especially following further weakness below 2.9535, a more protracted correction or reversal lower that could span weeks or even months should not surprise. RJO Market Insights