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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (16709)	1/29/1998 11:44:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

TXN INTC and MSFT 148-49 exactly 16 above WFC 310 exactly 15 above 295 bounced like a rocket and BKX a solid 100% return in 24 hours-and story goes on- I see a lot of possibilities if banks in ASEA take off like we saw in HSI session we are in for a great run on some of our babk stocks in USA- Ihave received numerous e-mails requesting me to identify levels ro short BKX- I will not I don't stand in front of a moving train- I will only follow what the market tells me- one point I have always argued is that the skepticism surrounding this market is based on skewed logic I could easily apply exactly similar reservations when market was at 770 on SPA the finest technicians were shotying the market using exactly same arguments what have been used all along. One classic example is Bank Credit Analyst they first raised the spectre of 'Inflation' than 'deflation' now overcapacity let me tell every one who thinks to short this market that we see some extended rallies but AG does his homework fine last time he spooke the markets with charges of 'irrational exuberance' he delayed this meteoric rise by a year hence'consolidation' of corporate profits is a hall mark of this market- the market skepticism was /is kept at all time at a very high level- asset inflation in Japan and Nikkei 38000 in Japan did not go thru similar check and balances- we need those check and balances and defining moves within moves is an art itself but atleast you got be sure of overrall direction- we think here that bull trend is intact we thought like this within an hour of fateful 28th Oct Chicago Morning where I raised buy at 6900 and got out of shorts SPZ's and will always try to identify a fundamental change of sentiment with that of technical breaks we are going to see them a lot- for discipline you need to leg out of your profitable trades on break of certain key supports but the direction has to be sure. Now with banking and techs also Oils I see some room to move up if these sectors start moving up we will have a good run upto 1050 but if I see Bkx or SOX or HFX faltering I would be concerned- yesterday I identified EMC Tlabs Mel Ko SOX and numerous other potential movers like WFC nearly every one made a decent move however I see that new high of SPA is not a new high for DOW or any of the indexes the S&P rallying this time is a more broadbased rally with no much hype associated with few leaders rather some of SPA leaders are still languishing- whenever such configuration appears we need to look at corresponding indexes to check if they can provide further fuel without igniting too much of fire yes I think so- this is a rally entirely poassible on oversold stocks taking on. Imagine if Intc goes upto 90 and TXN touches 70 it old high that alone can put a lot of fire in this leg up- when I caught MSFT at 134 this time I thought 145 as top but once it took out 140 it just ran up so fast to 148 area similar experience with SOX once resistance at 280 was taken out rest was just a formality. I see two dangers from here first is fresh questions on corporate profitibility in wake of ASEA overcapacity second if ASEA still lurk without any normalcy returnning to capital markets we just cannot digest fresh problems and wave of finanacial bankruptcies so we need to have a very close focus on global markets- to predict move 1000 and beyond is itself a very mind bogling process it is for this that you rightly find experts suggestive of shorting the market in a middle of a take off as rightly questioned by one of my lurker, I to be honest cannot answer this and have failed to understand the models which can be suggestive of short during last week run this is the problem with 'half cooked self styled forecasting'if your model is not giving you right configuration on a very important blow out phase I can only suggest that models need to be thoroughly rehashed. Now I go to my interrelational forecasting I will like China to stay course my next few months I will concnetrate on China - I will also like Japan to stop making waves 'stagnation'in Japan is concern but I see it more than adequately matched by European surging demand- my level will be to short SPA if Japan falls below 16500 a lee way of 300 points below my support to avoid and provide for political volatility some levels are triggered because of 'volatility' alone one needs to look for noise and seperate it. HSI should take out 10000 or remain above 9000 otherwise we may see a test of 938- on break of 1000 my new level of support equivalent to 900 will be 938 which is now a red flag for pre-1000 run. Indexes need to stay above 704 even 710 for BKX I will see first problems emanating from this very volatile index SOX 280 is imperative and OSX above 95 I did see OSX above 103 and accordingly suggested bottoming SNT and TDW both were higher yesterday anf Oils take off but my suppports need to be thoroughly checked. Today is 'Eid' a celeberation at the end of fasting period and our joys ae doulbled with last three weeks one of the finest run of my portfolio in last 22 years- if I don't work for the whole year and go cash I will equal last year audited returns but such is the love and lust of markets that being out it is being half dead the other half dies when my cricket and politicking stops, lets keep ourselves focussed continue to grow and help each other with respect and love to share bounties and opportunities provided by the market. Watch out again complacency in a top performing market is crime of highest order and research and big picture is a must know and define your markets well always question why? and interpolate 'events on charts' not 'charts on events' see the flow of events how they affect the market- like AG last night if 'Big picture' is absent from your model and you are sitting at a critical support an event triggered buying or selling should help you discard charts bearish indications- yes shortit but at the right point or identify reversal- markets is now all about how events affect and are interpreted by the finacial gurus.