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Strategies & Market Trends : REITS - Buying 1 - 2 weeks before going ex-dividend -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Huberman who wrote (606)	1/29/1998 11:14:00 PM
From: Richard Barron	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2561

Mark, MT by 15% and FUR by 20% more are overpriced if the advantage of paired-share REIT's are removed. PAH and HOT are probably fairly priced and will do well as long as the hotel sector stays healthy. HPK is still near 50% overvalued. Still, I'm not sure they will actually pass the bill after the discussions of pros and cons take place. If not, these should rebound. According to Sternlicht (HOT's CEO), the paired-shares pay corporate taxes still on the operating companies. Also, there is a paper-clip structure which Rainwater uses for CEI that would get the same results apparently. I am not an expert on paired-shares, I just know the street is hot for the idea, and now Congress wants to muck it up. The interesting thing is that RSE ran up after announcing that they will buy a private paired-share REIT, but came out unscathed today. My UNEDUCATED guess is that these stocks should bottom in the next 2 weeks, and as info leaks out that Congress won't pass it this time, then they will rebound slowly as many players will breathe a sigh of relief and bail out. or cut down their exposure. I believe that 2 or 3 REIT's in each industry will grow to $20 billion market caps in the next 3-5 years. In all likelihood, MT, BXP, CEI, EOP, EQR, HOT, PAH, RSE, VNO and a few others will be these huge companies. So whether or not they have the paired share status, these companies will be among the leaders. TEE is probably down since MT is entering the golf course business. If their advantage (if any) from being paired-share disappears, then TEE should regain favor on the street. Either way, TEE is likely to grow FFO 8-12% for the next 3-5 years. Richard