To: Goose94 who wrote (93938 ) 10/6/2020 2:45:51 PM From: Goose94 Read Replies (3) | Respond to Nickel: Worldwide vehicle electrification to drive Ni demandNickel is a most useful base metal. Because rust never sleeps, some 75% of nickel produced is used to make stainless steel, most being what is known as Class 2 nickel. Class 1 nickel, or pure nickel, is used for making steel alloys, storage batteries for laptops and cell phones and, of increasing importance, electric vehicle (EV) batteries. Nickel is part of the cathode in a Li-ion battery. It is these Li-ion batteries that are kick-starting a sea change in the nickel market. Combining all uses, nickel demand grew 9.4% during 2018 and 2018 – outperforming all other major base metals – making it a US$20 billion per year industry. In 2018, Canadian exports of nickel-based products totaled $4.2 billion with Canada ranking fifth in the world for mine production. Nickel prices are currently trading around US$14,000/tonne, or US$6.42/lb, up more than 30% from March lows and near its highest levels in November 2019. And while stainless steel and other nickel usages continue to steadily grow as the world’s population increases, it is the EV market that is expected to see a huge growth in nickel demand, according to senior miner Glencore. For the first time, in 2017, sales of EVs passed the 1 million mark; however, this is just the beginning. According to the International Energy Agency, (IEA), sales of electric cars topped 2.1 million globally in 2019, surpassing 2018 – already a another record year – to boost the stock to 7.2 million electric cars, 47% of which were in China. It’s hard to believe that in 2010, there were only 17,000 EVs on the road. Electric cars, which accounted for 2.6% of global car sales and about 1% of global car stock in 2019, registered a 40% year-on-year increase. In their recent report, the IEA stated that nine countries had more than 100,000 electric cars on the road. At least 20 countries reached market shares above 1%. However, this growth has sometimes been disrupted by various events and circumstances that negatively affected EV sales. Deloitte's outlook shows EV sales reaching 21 million vehicles in 2030 as the cost of manufacturing batteries falls significantly and range anxiety becomes less of a concern. Another challenge for would-be EV buyers is availability of charging stations out of town and, in tow, lacking of charging stations in older apartment buildings. This huge increase in EV sales will be even more jump-started with the introduction of electric pickup trucks, SUVs, delivery trucks and semi tractor trailers. This could cause a supply crunch for Class 1 nickel. Interestingly, the IEA noted that electric two/three-wheelers will continue to represent the lion’s share of the total electric vehicle fleet, as this category is most suited to rapid transition to electric drive. The future electric two/three-wheeler fleet is concentrated in China, India and the ten countries of ASEAN. Wood Mackenzie predicts an increase in nickel demand for EVs from 128 kt in 2019 to 265 kt in 2025 and 1.23 Mt in 2040, increasing nickel battery demand from 4% in 2018 to 31% by 2040. It has been estimated that by 2025 the world need almost 1 million tonnes per year of new nickel supply. By 2030, 2.5 million tonnes, or double that of today, is required. Wood Mackenzie is forecasting an average annual nickel deficit of 60,000 tonnes through to 2027 – a situation that bodes well for nickel explorers, developers and producers. About one-half of the world’s nickel supply is suitable for use in batteries such as the nickel sulphide mines in Sudbury, Voisey’s Bay and Russia. Those companies involved in discovering and mining nickel deposits are participating in a massive unstoppable global event with the electrification of the world’s vehicles – a good place to be. By Ellsworth Dickson
