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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Doug Baer who wrote (13900)	1/29/1998 3:31:00 PM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 32384

db, I think that leptin is more for confidence than cash. The leptin deal would be a research deal and although it would add yet another big boy to LGND's list of partners, it probably will not yield significant income for some time. However, many would like to see the deal done, just raise management's credibility level. LGND has a huge list of products and announcements lining up, and the finalization of the leptin deal would add assurances to the projected time line on future announcements. The LLY announcement is also due soon, and I suspect that LGND will go with the increased royalty rate and the cash instead of the compound (which I still assume is the IL-2 fusion protein of SRGN). The possiblity of further dilution make also be putting downward pressure on the price. Of course LGND is now very cheap, so those that step up to the plate will be very happy as LGND's compounds progress.

To: Doug Baer who wrote (13900)	1/29/1998 3:34:00 PM
From: Proton	Respond to of 32384

Re: Reasons? what part of the "diabetes discussion raised here", would lead to the stock floundering? I'm not sure any of it is, but the media reports discussed this morning were held out as possible negatives for the stock. Henry and company are much better people to talk to about that. though disappointing, the lack of a leptin deal must certainly be factored into the share price by now. moreover, i am not sure that the leptin deal represents significant revenue opportunity and may not substantially affect the future earnings for the company. You may be right, but LGND is currently a doghouse stock. Doghouse stocks react badly to any disappointment, perceived or real. Droloxifene failed? We don't care if it was a lower royalty and secondary indication: off with his head! Another missed deadline looming for a long-delayed deal? We don't care if it's not critical to future earnings: off with his head! Indeed, you may be right that people aren't even unconsciously citing these factors when they send LGND to the guillotine. They may just be looking at the underperformance relative to the NAZ and DRG and saying, "I can play biotechs later. I want me some of that takeover action!" Now you know why I prefer to use TA when I'm looking at LGND. :-) Pý