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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (15159)	1/29/1998 4:34:00 PM
From: Teri Skogerboe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Brian, Re: "I see your point on waiting on the equips and yet I am of a differing opinion. If one was to wait until the BTB for the group or any particular company to get well above parity, and the horizon held nothing but upgrades and new fab $$, then you would be out of luck since it would have already been priced into these stocks. Buy at the darkest hour and hold on. We are already about 5 months into this bear market in the equips." I am NOT of the opinion that anyone should wait until the BTB for the group or any particular company gets well above parity, and the horizon holds nothing but upgrades and new fab $$ etc. The problem right now (to me) is that the BTBs are just getting barely below parity NOW, after 8-9 months of strong spending by the chip makers on upgrades. Re: "Bet against them at your own peril IMHO." I am NOT SHORT ANY equipment stock. I am just being cautious about being long out the kazoo, because this could (key word) be the beginning of a significant downturn. I believe we have an overcapacity problem that isn't going away overnight. BB and DD and any other semiconductor people, can you please share your take on current conditions in the semi world?? Regards, Teri