SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Follies who wrote (162920)9/24/2020 8:11:45 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 218005
 
Re <<DRD>>

(1) By my figuring, DRD went down because ...

(1-i) peak-ish and CEO admitted fully-priced

(1-ii) power issues in S Africa

(1-iii) CoVid uncertainty in S Africa

(1-iv) USD strength

(1-v) gold pricing hiccup

(2) None of the above changes much of anything important

(2-i) gold quantity / quality in the tails, and cost of processing

(2-ii) processing plant goodness the minute power stabilises (and S Africa finally working the issues)

(2-iii) CoVid? S Africa going into Southern Hemisphere summer, with a young population, and so far given the wide & fast spreading, so good

(2-iv) USD strength must be stopped, and Team USA knows it, and shall certainly do something about it

(2-v) Gold pricing must be fixed by Teams all around the world, to go high and then higher

(2-vi) Still paying dividends and remains no-debt

(3) Given above, am comfortable

(3-i) I would be @ 25% (on current price) allocation of brokerage a/c to DRD should I be put and not called, come 20th November. Current actual allocation @ 17%.

(3-iii) assuming am put and not called between now and 20th November, the shares put to me would be at adjusted (payment for shares, less put and call premiums booked) would be 9.24

(3-iv) current cost basis of shares already held is south of 6.50

(4) As comparative, my notional exposure to TSLA short is 4X liquidation value of brokerage a/c :0) - yes, a bit high

(4-i) Shall continue to add to short TSLA calls over the next few days / weeks, on any material expression of last gasp strength

(4-ii) Fully intend to book all profit 20th November, and pay for DRD put shares with walk-around funding resulting from TSLA cloud-ATM, get some physical (presumably still cheap at that juncture), and re-group for renewed / rejuvenated cloud-ATM operations

(4-iii) Presumably onward cloud-ATM extractions from DRD shall be accompanied by extractions from TSLA

(5) I tend not to let good ideas go to waste for they are few during any given playable period, and

(5-i) 2020 has been the year for short DRD puts & covered calls, early, in material wallops, around the then whatever money, i.e. at strike-15 I account for 70% of the open interest calls and 50% of the puts, entered into between June and September - I am the market and have no clue who my counter parties might be, except that they like to buy what I love to sell :0), and

(5-ii) Progressively short TSLA OTM calls of short time to expiration, long TSLA nearer-the-money calls of same short time to expiration, and modulate / recalibrate as necessary day after night after day

(5-iii) Wager large on GLD puts, shares and calls

(5-iv) Siphon goodness by adding to physical gold from above protocols, for win-win-win outcome, each in own time, for short and longer terms

(5-v) Essentially short TSLA but safely, and long DRD but judiciously, and accrete to physical metal hoard, for the long term savings program

(5-vi) Short TSLA calls at 700 & 800 strikes before 20th November is safe (last night I did some 660 strikes but closed at small profit, intending to reload as I believe TSLA should bounce in / within next few days

(5-vii) Short DRD calls at 15 & 17.5 strikes in greater quantities than shorting puts at 15 and 12.5 be judicious

(6) Compared to 2017-2019, 2020 has been easy

(6-i) However, it was critical that I did not get hit by the March debacle, and that I was massively net short due to TSLA position.

(6-ii) Such be coincidence enhanced by luck, presumably undergirded by astute agility, facilitated by history-is-important experience, and helped along by the Fed largess, Trump protocol, and Trade+Tech+CoVid Cold War 2.0

(6-iii) I believe DRD might still go down a bit as the general market would crater ala March-April, but otherwise good value, especially with gold to be boosted irrespective of who wins the POTUS election, contested or smooth.

(6-iv) Should either political party unlikely but possible manage a landslide, buy gold, lots and lots of gold, and them buy some more. Same w/ copper.

Let us hope 2021 is as bountiful :0)

Bottom line, re <<I had an outstanding order to buy DRD @10.74. Missed it by 6 cents. I think the bottom may be in and I might just pull the trigger tomorrow>>

... I want to say you are right knowing full well what I have to say be only intuitive and does not stand up to technical discourse never mind fundamentals dialogue.

But / and however, the broader market concerns me.

Only critical what Sir Armstrong has to say, and he earlier noted for this week Message 32944140



To: Follies who wrote (162920)9/25/2020 6:00:01 AM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 218005
 
whatever this way comes can only be bad to very bad

and gold be the consolation prize

per signs & signals

bloomberg.com

Cineworld Mulls Fundraising If James Bond Rescue Gets Delayed
Thomas Seal24 September 2020, 20:24 GMT+8



A woman walks past a poster for the latest James Bond movie "No Time to Die" in Bangkok on Feb. 28.

Photographer: Mladen Antonov/AFP via Getty Images

LISTEN TO ARTICLE
For Cineworld Group Plc, “No Time to Die” can’t come soon enough.

The world’s second-largest cinema chain is facing lockdowns and the prospect of film delays that could jeopardize its ability to meet the terms of its loans. It says raising money could be a way for it to weather the pandemic.

“All options are open,” deputy Chief Executive Officer Israel Greidinger said in an interview Thursday. “It’s not that we need to raise billions of dollars -- if we need to raise money, it will be raising an additional $200-300 million.”

The London-based company said earlier adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization fell 93% in the first half. It’s banking on a revival from box office takings from key releases such as the new James Bond film, currently scheduled for November.

However, hopes for moviegoing to return to normal are dimming as Cineworld’s key markets struggle to contain the coronavirus. Of its 778 sites, 200 remain closed in the U.S. and 6 in Britain. A sharply rising infection rate in the U.K. led Prime Minister Boris Johnson to tighten social distancing measures on Tuesday.

Funding OptionsOptions being assessed by the board include an extension of its revolving credit facility beyond its expiry in December, an additional term loan or an equity raise, the company said in its results statement.

In addition, a U.S. court ruling last month allowing movie studios to buy theaters has “opened opportunities,” Greidinger said. The decision scrapped a ban that had been in place since 1948.

Cineworld said it will breach borrowing covenants in December unless it can negotiate waivers with its banks, and that it expects lenders to provide these. It has already taken other measures to ease its position, including the renegotiation of 200 leases.

The company has $3.6 billion of term loans and a $573.3 million revolving credit line. The latter’s terms include a leverage covenant triggered above 35% utilization and testing in June and December. Lenders waived testing in June. There are also terms related to net debt ratios.

The stock is currently the U.K.’s most-shorted, and the shares fell as much as 20% in London on Thursday, putting the company at one-fifth of its January market value.

Israel and his brother Mooky, the company’s chief executive officer, own 20% of Cineworld through the family’s Global City Holdings. Greidinger said Covid-19 will eventually disappear, “and in that moment, I think that all these short people will start running away -- so I suggest to them to run earlier.”

Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal.
LEARN MORE




To: Follies who wrote (162920)9/25/2020 6:23:16 AM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 218005
 
fiat money engenders wildcards, even as gold money gives rise to bre-x's

ft.com

Wirecard’s deceit went beyond its fraudulent Asian operations

Report from court-appointed administrator reveals the rest of the business was chaotic and unprofitable
September 23 2020
© FT montageWirecard’s fabricated Asian business was not its only deception.

The rest of the once-lauded German payment provider’s business was chaotic, beset by byzantine reporting lines, hobbled by lamentable IT and racking up losses, according to a report by Wirecard’s administrator and accounts of former employees.

The picture that emerges of the Wirecard businesses that did exist is a stark contrast to the one painted by former chief executive Markus Braun, who hailed the group as a highly profitable pioneer in the payments industry. It reveals the scale on which the company, Germany’s biggest corporate fraud in decades, also misled investors about its real businesses.

“Only a few units of the group were actually involved in conducting operative business that was customer-facing and generated revenue,” the administrator Michael Jaffé wrote in his report, a copy of which was seen by the Financial Times.

On paper, the formerly high-flying company generated €1.9bn in pre-tax profits between 2015 and the first quarter of 2020. However, if its fraudulent Asian operations are excluded, the remaining businesses accumulated €740m in pre-tax losses over the same period, according to the report. The losses were never disclosed because Wirecard only reported numbers for the whole group rather than its individual operations.

Prized as a rare example of a world-beating German tech business, Wirecard was promoted into the country’s Dax index of leading companies in 2018. Even on the verge of insolvency three months ago, the group had a market capitalisation of €13bn.

However, the administrator estimates that the real value of Wirecard’s assets is just €428m, an amount dwarfed by the €3.2bn in debt that the company had at its collapse.

Mr Jaffé’s assessment of the group’s value is also at odds with internal estimates by Wirecard. Days ahead of its insolvency filing on June 25, a preliminary restructuring plan pulled together by Wirecard estimated that the group could generate €560m by selling some operations, according to a presentation seen by the FT.

The forecast turned out to be optimistic, partly because many of its customers — among them a large fintech that accounted for 40 per cent of Wirecard Bank’s revenue — quickly abandoned the company.

Formally appointed by a Munich judge last month to oversee Wirecard’s unwinding, the administrator is trying to carve out bits of the company that could be sold. Mr Jaffé declined to comment on the report.

Details of the administrator’s findings come just weeks after Germany’s parliament decided to hold a full inquiry into Wirecard’s collapse, which was triggered after its outsourced business in Asia was exposed as a sham. The group’s demise has shaken confidence in corporate Germany and the country’s financial regulators. Mr Braun denies allegations of fraud and embezzlement.

While technological prowess was central to its sales pitch to customers, Wirecard’s own IT infrastructure was a particular weakness.


Its computer systems were inherited from companies acquired over the years and never fully integrated. Wirecard Bank, for instance, is still running on software originally developed for Germany’s small co-operative banks and which will be switched off by its IT service provider by the end of this year, according to people familiar with the matter.

“If IT auditors had been professional and serious, huge risks, weaknesses and non-compliance issues would have emerged a long time ago,” according to a former Wirecard IT employee, who was scathing about the “unbelievable brittleness of [Wirecard’s] IT infrastructure”.

Even as Wirecard faced increasing scrutiny of its accounting, the group’s headcount continued to rise, climbing by a quarter from early last year to 6,300 at the time of its implosion. Over the same period, its real revenues grew at less than half that rate, according to the administrator.

The report points to bloated costs and a colossal amount of corporate waste.

“Employees never faced the necessity to reduce the services they were using to those that were really needed as cash was abundantly available in the past,” it noted, adding that the company was suffering from “excessive overhead and personnel capacities”.

“Only a fraction” of the employees were actually required to run Wirecard’s non-fraudulent business, the report found.

And as the company scrambled in June to convince its longtime auditor EY to sign off on its latest accounts, Wirecard was burning through cash.

By the time it unravelled in late June, the total was €10m a week and the company’s own internal planning predicted that figure would rise to more than €15m — some €200m for the third quarter as a whole, according to the administrator’s report. At that rate, Wirecard would have needed to raise fresh cash by the end of this year to pay its bills.

If extravagant spending is one of Mr Jaffé’s findings, another is what the report describes as Wirecard’s “totally opaque” and inefficient structure, consisting of at least 55 subsidiaries scattered over four continents.

Staff at its headquarters on the outskirts of Munich did not know what the group’s different units were doing, the administrator concluded, with neither their tasks and responsibilities — or the payments and loans between the divisions — properly recorded.

There was “a small business mentality” at many of its units, former employees told the FT, describing businesses that Wirecard had hoovered up around the world and largely left to their own devices.

The internal chaos led to bizarre outcomes. A team of IT specialists, working in Athens, but part of a subsidiary with headquarters in New Zealand, provided services to Wirecard’s German HQ that were not needed, the administrator found.

In another example, when the administrator asked managers at a different Asian-based subsidiary about how they contributed to the group, the reply was “we don’t really know”, according to a person briefed on the matter.

Hansrudi Lenz, an accounting professor at the University of Würzburg, said that EY should have picked up such failings in its audits.

“The control functions and risk management systems are a key part of any annual audit. If auditors do not spot such blatant shortcomings, things have badly gone wrong during the audit,” Mr Lenz said.

EY declined to comment.

Wirecard’s internal organisation and documentation were a far cry from “what one would expect from a company of such a size”, the report noted.

The administrator’s findings will do little to ease the shockwaves the scandal has sent through German politics and business.



To: Follies who wrote (162920)9/25/2020 8:06:23 AM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 218005
 
Re <<gold>>

Written by someone




To: Follies who wrote (162920)9/29/2020 10:51:13 AM
From: Follies  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 218005
 
I got in to DRD @12.10. I missed the bottom by 4 cents and had to pay 1.25 more.

Not complaining, I am still in on shares I bought at 5.00