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Biotech / Medical : Oxford Health Plan (OXHP) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas Haegin who wrote (850)	1/29/1998 9:10:00 PM
From: david siple	Respond to of 2068

Thread, I'd like to think, that since the last two announcements were ones which "shocked" everyone....because we should have had more info and inkling prior, that they would --at least their councel-- know if there's more bad news, they should get it out NOW. I'd say, since we haven't heard anything yet, there will be no 'surprises" Gd luck --ds

To: Thomas Haegin who wrote (850)	1/30/1998 9:40:00 AM
From: Don Wong	Respond to of 2068

I hope they will fill the vacant CFO and CEO positions soon. That would reduce some anxiety.

To: Thomas Haegin who wrote (850)	1/30/1998 12:28:00 PM
From: Worswick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2068

Veeeeeeerrrry slow connection today! Interesting thoughts about evaluation saying where we ae today: not much different from December 10, 1998 (C) S&P For private use only Quantitative Evaluation: Outlook (1 Lowest - 5 Highest) 2- Fair Value 16.00 Risk MEDIUM Earn/Div Rank B Technical Evaluation: BEARISH since 10/97 Rel. Strength Rank (1 Lowest - 99 Highest) 1 Insider Activity Neutral Overview 10-DEC-97 Oxford will report a sizable operating loss for 1997, as its computer system conversion problems led to an inability by management to accurately gauge its medical cost trends and process its collections/payables in a timely manner. The situation was exacerbated by problems in the Medicare segment (about 21% of revenues), where it appears that medical costs in certain regions have been running about 14% higher than originally estimated, while the Medicaid segment remains an earnings drag. Going forward, Oxford will revise its Medicare benefits packages and streamline its provider networks while exiting the troublesome Medicaid segment. The core large group commercial segment will be the primary driver of EPS growth, with a strong enrollment outlook and a medical loss ratio in the 80% range. Valuation 10-DEC-97 We maintain an accumulate opinion on this beaten-down stock, as the prospect for a resumption of earnings momentum lies in the company's strong commercial business, where both enrollment and cost trends remain positive. We look for a fourth quarter operating loss in the $2.00 range, as N.Y. State Insurance regulators have forced the company to boost its medical reserves by about $164 million in order to protect policyholders from possible solvency issues. While the stock may struggle in coming months, we feel that a sharper focus on the commercial segment will allow for 1998 EPS of about $1.40, assuming management can lower both medical and administrative costs while generating enrollment growth of about 20%. Oxford has also become a logical takeover play, and we feel OXHP would command at least $35 per share in a deal, or roughly $1,400 per member. Best to you all