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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gib Bogle who wrote (163103)	9/28/2020 1:00:43 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218317

the stuff making way on WeChat

To: Gib Bogle who wrote (163103)

9/28/2020 1:03:14 AM

From: TobagoJack

Respond to of 218317

Re <<Trump's taxes>>

From: John Browning
Date: 28 September 2020 at 10:00:53 GMT+7
To:
Subject: Letter From Shanghai No 553 - The changing uncertainties.

The weekend release of the New York Times report on the President's tax returns just 2 days before the first Biden Trump debate underlines the winner takes all struggle of current American politics. That NYT suggests Trump paid just $750 in tax in 2016 and 2017 and nothing at all in 10 of the previous 15 years. Trump’s problem, is that for a politician paying full taxes, should be a badge of honour, indicating both profitability and responsibility, instead, in reading the detailed NYT report we are left with a faint whiff of deceit.

But the Trump Organisation is not the only property empire troubled by the headlines. In Hong Kong property developer China Evergrande’s shares lost 9.5% on Friday to HK$13.78, down 51% from its 2019 high, as doubts emerge as to its ability to manage is USD 120bn of debt. Evergrand’s leverage is approx 12.1 against an industry average of 4.02. Without doubt, Evergrande is a behemoth in the mainland property market, owning more than 870 projects in at least 280 cities across all provinces and regions. It recently cut prices by 20-30% to lure buyers and revive its cash flow amid the COVID slowdown. However, Evergrande debt maturing in 2015 is now trading at 77 cents delivering a yield of 15.7%

As in the US, we could expect to see huge downward revisions to the value of the commercial property sector. As mentioned here before, the values for Shanghai office space were not strong before the infection and they could not be better now. Daily occupation of office hubs such as Canary Warf in London is perhaps teetering around 15%. In the US the default on mortgages on office blocks and hotels are starting to rise and foreclosure appraisals are being written on average 27% lower than previous values. But even at these lower numbers who can say what is the value of a commercial property given the changing uncertainties.

Have a good day

John