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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Snowshoe who wrote (163532)10/10/2020 5:20:16 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 217750
 
Re << Team USA has a 1 in 6 chance of re-electing Trump >>

Do we know what the odds were at this same time to Election Day back in 2016?

I am wondering whether I actually ‘need’ or better, want, to be risk-on going into 3 November - 10 November period, the hot-zone.

I thought about the issue of ‘risk’, and for now decides that volatility to me is not a risk because as noted often, is a gift. The danger of market tanking is also not a risk, for that is what incites volatility, the gifting. So, net net I am not risk-on at all.



To: Snowshoe who wrote (163532)10/10/2020 10:12:13 PM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 217750
 
as the self-claimed thread-resident expert on cultural revolutions, I conform to you that such are a bit troublesome to navigate, especially if asset-laden and mobility-stalled

The cultural revolution can be tee-ed up by any faction wishing to capture or maintain power, and in the USA case I see it as a bipartisan thing, depending on who said what when and what for

The issue w/ Trump is not anything about anything except for the truth that the nation is not united

Biden shall not change what the Trump did not change

That is the nature of 51/49 outcomes

Unless a side can capture 85-90% of some high-turnout popular vote, not much can be expected to change, and even after a 90/10 outcome, all might well fall apart on Day #2

in Team China's episode, after 4-years the military had to start taking over, completing the clampdown 5 years after starting to take over, and a generation of work was lost but for energetic people practicing diligence, studies, savings, ...

If the author is correct, and he can be wrong, and the USA is on cusp of something more serious than the Boston Tea Party, then I recommend brace-brace-brace, instead of China-China-China

amazon.com



zerohedge.com

Doug Casey On What Happens After The Election

Authored by Doug Casey via InternationalMan.com,

Whenever a really radical group takes over—and the Democrats are serious radicals—they try to cement themselves in power. I’ve explained my reasons for believing the Democrats are going to win, and it only takes a small number of people working as a cadre to do it. I’d like to discuss what happens next.



At the time of the Russian Revolution, the hardcore Bolsheviks only numbered in the hundreds. That was enough to take control of a hundred million Russians and stay in power for 70 years until they totally ran the wheels off the economy.

The same thing happened with Fidel Castro in Cuba. He landed with only 50 or 60 guys, but once he took over the country, his apparatchiks were able to keep control of it.

Serious populists, socialists, Marxists, and other authoritarians can pull that off because they’re completely unbound by conventional notions of morality. They sincerely believe the ends justify the means, and nothing is off the table when it comes to gaining and maintaining power. They always say they’re working for the people and invariably promise lots of free stuff. The hoi polloi want to hear that during a crisis—like the one we’re entering. When things get tumultuous, once they’re in, it’s almost impossible to get them out. Democracy—which is a sham anyway in today’s world—be damned.

If the positions discussed by the twenty final contenders for their presidential nomination are any indication, the Democratic Party has been completely captured by leftists like AOC and her gang of four, who really want to change the very nature of the US. If they win, they’ll be able to do so.

In order to succeed in an American Purple Revolution, they’ll need to cement themselves in place. It takes time for cement to dry. Even though the Republicans are just ineffectual and spineless “me too-ers” with no core beliefs, the Democrats will see there’s no point in letting them regain power.

How will they ensure that?

First, it seems almost certain that the Democrats will make both Washington DC and Puerto Rico states; there will then be 104 senators voting—and they will without question be left-leaning Democrats. That will also help assure control of the Electoral College—assuming it’s not abolished—since it will have two more reliably Democratic states.

Second, the 20 million undocumented people—illegal aliens—now in the US will undoubtedly be made citizens; they lean heavily toward the Democrats.

Third, they’ll expand the size of the Supreme Court and pack it with leftists, so any new laws they pass can’t be challenged effectively.

There could be more, of course. Perhaps they’ll reduce the voting age to 16; such is already the case in Argentina and a growing number of other countries. Young people, especially once they’re freshly indoctrinated by the State schools, always tend to favor socialist ideas. Maybe they’ll even engineer a new Constitutional Convention to change everything. The 2nd Amendment will go, of course, and the rest of the Bill of Rights would be heavily modified. Most of it is already a dead letter—but that would formalize the change once and for all. There will probably be “free” college in order to ensure an extra four years of intense leftist indoctrination for all. State-administered and paid medical care is a sure thing, as well.

These things would cement the Democrats into office for at least a generation. But please don’t think I support the Republicans. That would be like supporting tuberculosis just because it’s better than terminal cancer. Could things get violent? Yes.

There are quite a few examples, and these things can come out of almost nowhere, like the witch hysteria in Salem in the late 17th century. It was completely irrational, of course, and couldn’t have been predicted. But if you argued against the prevailing hysteria, you too could be accused and hung.

Sometimes, these things are ethnic. Look at what happened in Rwanda a generation ago. The Hutus and Tutsis had lived together, more or less amicably, for generations. Then, all of a sudden, a million people were hacked with machetes. The wave blew over, and now things are peaceful again. But if you weren’t out there slaughtering Tutsis during the hysteria, you might be accused of being a sympathizer and be killed yourself.

Sometimes, these things are religious, like the war between Christians and Muslims in Bosnia, or Lebanon, or the Central African Republic—among other places.

Sometimes, conflict is political, like the gang warfare between the National Socialists and Communists in 1920s Germany.

But what the US seems to be facing isn’t so much political, or religious, or ethnic as it is cultural, which is much more serious. The country is on the cusp of a full-blown cultural revolution. It happened during the Terror of the French Revolution. In a short period, perhaps over 20,000 people were murdered, mostly guillotined. Who would have guessed that simple regime change could get so out of control? It did, however, because it wasn’t just a political revolution. It was a cultural revolution, right down to changing the names of the months.

It famously happened in Russia in 1917, when the Bolsheviks succeeded in changing the basic structure of society. And it happened in Cambodia in the late 1970s with Pol Pot, when a quarter of the population was murdered. Who would have thought that even possible in modern times? That was also a cultural revolution against the educated and essentially anyone who wasn’t a peasant.

Of course, the mother of all social convulsions was Maoist China’s Great Cultural Revolution of the 1960s. The whole country, or at least what looked like the whole country, was bamboozled into overthrowing what they called the Four Olds—old customs, old culture, old habits, and old ideas. It went on for ten years, killed perhaps two million people, and destroyed the lives of tens of millions more.

Right now, the same meme is spreading in the US. Absolutely anything could happen after the November election, no matter who wins. But with the serious financial, economic, and social problems the US is facing, authoritarians will know how to use them to their own advantage.

The people promoting a US cultural revolution aren’t getting much resistance. The old regime—the conservatives, the Republicans—are totally intimidated. They’ve been brainwashed into accepting the righteousness of the Left’s cultural, political, economic, and social agendas. They don’t like it, but they sheepishly accept it. The schools, the NGOs, corporations, Hollywood, and the media are completely controlled by leftists and have inculcated their notions into society.

This is a real problem. When these things get out of control, the consequences can be genuinely terrible. Trends in motion tend to stay in motion—and this one is even accelerating.

America was unique among the world’s countries because it was founded on the premise of individualism and capitalism, free minds, and free markets. More than any other country, it’s lived up to those ideals.

But these people don’t want just a change of government; they want to overturn the actual things that have made America—America. There’s no other place to go once America goes.

Where can you run? In fact, the whole world is moving in the same direction.

That’s really dangerous because the president has a lot of power, including the power to make several thousand direct appointees with immense influence. Trump has been very unsuccessful in all his appointments. Most of them turn on him viciously. He might as well have picked random names out of the telephone directory. The Democrats, however, can be counted on to plug in fully vetted idealogues.

If Biden wins, he’ll probably get the Senate and the House, too. The Democrats will get a vast array of programs and departments approved. The changes will be much more radical than either Roosevelt’s New Deal or Johnson’s Great Society. Taxes will skyrocket, along with unlimited money in a world of Modern Monetary Theory. The US will get a makeover. America will cease to exist.

I don’t know how the red areas of the country will react if/when the Dems win. They’re culturally conservative, so I doubt there will be serious counterviolence. But if Trump does wind up in office, after a seriously contested election, we can count on more Portlands and Kenoshas. A domestic version of the leftist saying during the ’60s: “Two, three, many Vietnams.” It’s really serious.

The consequences of the Greater Depression will go far beyond a simple bear market. If Trump does win, no doubt the Republicans will crack down on the country in an attempt to keep order. The Dems will have cause to say they were right about his dictatorial tendencies. Then, assuming we have an election in ’24, we’ll certainly get a leftist Democrat in office.

On the (kind of) bright side, gold will go a lot higher. So will Bitcoin, partly because FX controls will be installed. And the next financial bubble will be in gold mining stocks. They’re very cheap right now; those in production are coining money. Ten-to-one shots will be thick underfoot. Buy them now, so you have the capital to insulate yourself from the bad things to come.

Then it’s game over for the Old America. Even if we don’t have an actual civil war.

* * *

Right now, the US is the most polarized it has been since the Civil War.

If you’re wondering what comes next, then you’re not alone.

The political, economic, and social implications of the 2020 vote will impact all of us.

EXCLUSIVE VIDEO: The Day After—How to Prepare for What’s Coming After the 2020 Election

That’s exactly why bestselling author Doug Casey and his team just released this urgent new video about how to prepare for what comes next. Click here to watch it now.



To: Snowshoe who wrote (163532)10/11/2020 9:06:25 PM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 217750
 
Folks are still holding on to the ghosts that be Lynas and Mountain Pass, two tired ideas already three years long in the tooth

They think there is a game to play in investing in rare earths

I suspect the way to play rare earths speculation is to be net short Nasdaq by way of shorting TSLA OTM calls, the one trade in place of multiple wagers, the good idea that keeps giving, week after expiring week

livewiremarkets.com

Someone is going to pay for this: Cold War 2.0 sees a new front emerge.

Henry Jennings

Donald Trump has shrugged off CV19 in the space of days. Something that will only add to his aura for his supporters but apart from his return to health, and the theatrics surrounding his helicopter landing at The White House, what other implications are there?

We are well aware that Trump frames the CV19 pandemic as a ‘Chinese virus’. In his latest press conference, following his successful treatment, he has promised that every American will be able to get the treatment he did for free. What he added was that China would pay a ‘heavy Price’ for unleashing the virus on the world.

This is only going to stoke the 'cold war’2.0 conflict between the two superpowers. Even under Biden, there is no promise of the tensions falling away. Trump and the administration are once again targeting Chinese tech stocks as the bifurcation of East/West tech and the net continues.

Biden’s cry of ‘Build Back Better’ is hopefully going to unleash an infrastructure wave one that has been sorely lacking in the last four years. At least that is the hope.

But Trump and Biden are both hoping to give America an edge in strategic minerals and ensure that any further aggression against Chinese tech cannot risk a reprisal to US tech stocks.

So far, the trade war has not worked.

The US Balance of Trade with China has worsened. The trade gap came in at US$67.1bn in August which was the highest trade deficit since August 2006.


So much for that front and the tariffs imposed.

The administration is now changing tack with the focus on technology and that now includes strategic minerals and rare earths. This has been in the wind for some years as the US declared rare earths as strategic some time ago. Trump though signed an executive order just a few weeks ago, declaring a national emergency in the mining industry aimed at boosting production and reducing dependence on China. It is almost as if the administration is getting its ducks in a row before escalating the rhetoric.

The statement went on to say the “undue reliance on critical minerals constitutes an unusual and extraordinary threat, which has its source in substantial part outside the United States, to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States.”

Lynas (ASX: LYC) is one obvious winner from this shift. We have all heard the maxim that there is nothing rare about rare earths. The rare part is that processing is messy, and few countries want to embrace it. LYC has had its processing facility in Malaysia for some time. It has been a political football and CEO Amanda Lacaze has done a stellar job in negotiating the political landmines associated with the LAMP facility in Kuantan.


The input to the plant comes from Mt Weld in WA, which is a low life low-cost, high-quality asset. The LAMP produces neodymium and praseodymium, key ingredients in magnets.

Lynas supplies 20% of the world’s demand for separated Rare Earth products. China is of course the dominant force in rare earths. China provides 80% of the supply of rare earths.

Up until recently, the US had its foot in the door through Molycorp in the Mojave Desert. Five years ago, the company collapsed under a mountain of debt and left the US critically exposed to Chinese supply. Mining was halted.

Given the critical nature of these minerals in such things as weapon systems and fighter planes, the Pentagon has opened its cheque book and agreed to fund MP Materials, privately owned and now the owner of the Molycorp mine, bought for a mere US$20.5m in 2017. Ironically one of the investors in MP is the Chinese group, Shenghe Resources with a near 10% stake.

In tandem with the US funding of MP, it is also funding LYC with a seed program with its US partner Blue Line to process dysprosium and terbium, heavy Rare Earths that currently can only be produced in China. The new project is in Texas and has already become a small political football. Although now seems to be back on track, to design and hopefully build, a Heavy Rare Earths Separation Facility.

The other diversification strategy Lacaze is pursuing, is a new rare earth processing facility in Kalgoorlie. This will value add more diversity although the end product will still need further processing in Malaysia. So not the panacea for local politics.

LYC has had its issues in the past and has had to be bailed out by Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corp in 2016. The Japanese were happy to secure guaranteed supply rather than discounted prices after China cut exports in 2010.

LYC has raised US$425m in July this year, to strengthen the balance sheet and interestingly was the subject of a takeover approach from industrial conglomerate Wesfarmers in 2019 pitched at $1.5bn which was soundly rejected by the board, management, and in the end the market and Wesfarmers conceded and threw in the towel. But it did highlight the strategic attraction of LYC.

Some fun facts about the RE Market

· Rare earth elements are a group of 17 minerals critical to the defence industry’s manufacturing of missiles and munitions, hypersonic weapons, and radiation-hardened electronics. The US has previously identified 35 minerals as essential and where supplies are vulnerable to supply shocks.

· The Asia Pacific is likely to be the largest regional market by the end of the projected time-period, accounting for more than 55% of the global demand by 2026. Under the Made in China 2025 strategy, Beijing is pushing to create an integrated supply chain in mining, magnets, and high-tech manufacturing.

· Based on metal, the neodymium is leading the market growth followed by scandium and dysprosium. In 2019, neodymium, scandium as well as dysprosium represented a market share of nearly 30%, 17% as well as 10%. Among these, Neodymium is extensively utilized in the renewable energy sector and electric vehicles

· The Rare Earths market was estimated at $13.2bn in 2019 and is expected to hit nearly $19.8bn by 2026 registering a CAGR of 10.8% from 2020 to 2026.

· More than 90% of hybrid and electric vehicles use rare-earth-based magnets in their motors, while each F-35 fighter jet requires 420lb of rare earths materials.

· China has a big stick in banning a company like Apple, but an equally dangerous-looking stick would be the withdrawal of rare earth supply.

Lynas is the blue-chip way to play this if there is such a thing.

Here are the fundamentals


There is now a slew of more speculative RE producers, but processing remains the key. Remember it is not rare just rare to be able to process.

Among the smaller players are recently renamed, American Rare Earths (ASX: ARR) with a project in Wyoming. The company changed its name from Broken Hill Prospecting, and this has made a significant difference coupled with the focus on the Laramie project in Wyoming. Has run very hard and dropped just as fast too recently. Volatility is certain to remain in this one which is a trader's special.


Alkane (ASX: ALK) has demerged its RE exposure through Australian Strategic Minerals (ASX: ASM) with its Dubbo project and its partnership in Korea. The company is now free to pursue its strategy with $20m cash in the bank, no debt, and Australian owned.


Northern Metals (ASX: NTU) is developing the Browns Range Heavy Rare Earths pilot project in Northern WA. It is hoping to become a significant producer of dysprosium outside of China. Long way to go but making progress especially with the recent deal with Germany’s Thyssenkrupp Materials for 100% of the project’s offtake.


One other rare earth company to consider is Greenland Minerals (ASX: GGG). At one stage Trump joked that he should buy Greenland. Not for sale and is administered by Denmark. GGG has a project there in the Kvanefjeld site in southern Greenland which contains an estimated 1bn tons of mineralised ore, of not only RE but also uranium, just to make the project even more political. Again, Shenghe Resources, remember these guys from MP, are a substantial shareholder with around 10.5%. China again hedging its bets on the growing competition. GGG is continuing to advance the project and capped at only $340m again looks an interesting way to play the RE market on the doorstep of the US. GGG has been a long time coming with its project and may require more patience but again a strategic play and should gain more attention going forward.


Finally, to further emphasise the importance of rare earths, the budget includes a $1.5bn strategy to support Australian Industry and that also includes downstream processing and resource technology.

The rare earths sector just needs one thing. Higher prices but as demand grows and the risks to the supply chain from China also grow, LYC and its smaller cousins may once again see not only corporate action but also higher share prices.

Henry Jennings writes every day in Marcus Today on emerging technology, small and mid-caps, and macro strategy that has implications for the sector. Given the acceleration of digitisation and technology, there has never been a better time to be investing in new technology. The blue chips of tomorrow are the mid-caps of today. Henry runs a model portfolio of small and emerging stocks in biotechs, technology and mining stocks. Sign up for a 14 -day free trialtoday.



To: Snowshoe who wrote (163532)10/12/2020 4:44:37 AM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 217750
 
Put away Irony Detector

No need for it on below

and yes, it is hilarious

scmp.com

Five Eyes group demands ‘backdoor’ access to WhatsApp and other encrypted apps
Justice officials in Australia, Britain, Canada, New Zealand and the US say they need access to encrypted apps to police online criminalityIndia and Japan, which cooperate in intelligence with the Five Eyes group, added their names to the statement

The “Five Eyes” intelligence alliance has demanded that tech companies insert “backdoors” in encrypted apps to allow law enforcement agencies the access they say they need to police online criminality.

The top justice officials of Australia, Britain, Canada, New Zealand and the United States said in a statement released on Sunday that the growth of end-to-end encrypted apps that make official oversight impossible – like Signal, Telegram, Facebook Messenger and WhatsApp – “pose significant challenges to public safety”.

“There is increasing consensus across governments and international institutions that action must be taken,” they said. “While encryption is vital and privacy and cybersecurity must be protected, that should not come at the expense of wholly precluding law enforcement, and the tech industry itself, from being able to act against the most serious illegal content and activity online.”

They called on tech companies to “embed the safety of the public in system designs”, providing access to law enforcement “in a readable and usable format”.

It was the strongest call yet for programmers to include “backdoor” access to encrypted communications programmes.

India and Japan, which cooperate in intelligence with the Five Eyes group, added their names to the statement.

Law enforcement globally has complained of the difficulty encrypted communications poses to criminal investigations. But end-to-end encryption also offers protection to all sorts of activities from business to political dissent.

Pro-privacy advocates say encoding the means for law enforcement to access a user’s communications can endanger democracy activists and empower dictatorial governments.

Pressure has built in recent years in the US and Europe to force the makers of encryption apps to provide access to law enforcement.

According to the Electronic Frontier Foundation, which advocates for privacy on the internet, European countries have moved closer to regulating such apps.

In an article last week, the EFF said that recently leaked
European Union documents indicate a plan to introduce anti-encryption laws forcing backdoor access to the European Parliament “within the next year.”

It would be “a drastically invasive step”, EFF said.

The Five Eyes statement says that its proposal would require safeguards and oversight so that authorities cannot take advantage of their access without cause.

They justified the need based on the prevalence of child sexual abuse material on the internet.

In the US, most prominent cases in which law enforcement said it was stymied by encrypted devices and communications have been related to violent extremism.