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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (163687)	10/14/2020 5:32:37 PM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 217714

RE: 40% spread between S&P and the Banks YTD.. Short term flat yield curve hurts banks. Historic low level of LP's to foreclose residential properties being filed.. CDC moratorium basically on occupied properties till end of the year overrides the states at this point.. Eventually have to extend terms on the back end, let the banks foreclose or take yet another step towards socialism. Commercial RE especially urban core high percentage serious write downs should be worse than S&L crisis 30 years ago.. Delaying till after election the actual hit not sure if reserves set aside will be enough.. When economy gets back to pre covid levels perhaps by next summer especially if Trump gets reelected yield curve will steepen meaning much higher interest rates putting all kinds of pressure on overvalued assets now repricing at a ten year risk free rate well under 1%. If Powell helps bank profits keeps ZIRP policies for the three years he talks about will be a big mistake IMHO. We did that for three years after 9/11 till finally started raising way too late August 2004.. All my take we have so many issues not being addressed as these issues are global not just in the USA....

To: carranza2 who wrote (163687)	10/14/2020 8:42:58 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217714

Re <<Very, very interesting>> have I not cited the author before? Oh cr@p, have been delinquent :0) Actually I just locked-on to Raoul Pal the author. We are not too late. Re <<Not going to end well>> I reckon so as well. I moped around the net and fished up below which should keep me background-occupied this work day Probably good to enjoy w/ cup of got chocolate handy The author of the report is Raoul Pal, whom I am now following, and he apparently is a known quantity of quality globalmacroinvestor.com twitter.com^google\|twcamp^serp\|twgr^author I just tried to get “The Unfolding” for free via here twitter.com written in April, which Raoul claims is the most important he ever wrote. We will see. I have the transcript below attached to his explanation back in April Do not know what it is all about but here be all that we need to know which I intend to watch this day realvision.com In the meantime, a YouTube dialogue between him and Grant Williams done April of 2019 - and it is still good Brand new dialogue dated two days ago With above and below you should be set for this night :0) I am wondering how Raoul's projected timing lines up w/ 2026 / 2032 Transcript to his April 2020 Unfolding dialogue on Real Vision RAOUL PAL: Hi, I'm Raoul Pal, the CEO and co-founder of Real Vision. Today, I'm talking toyou as Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Global Macro Investor, my independent researchbusiness that's separate to Real Vision. As you know, Real Vision doesn't have a view, but I personally do, and I know some of you want to hear how my views are evolving since Ilast appeared on the platform. This piece is based around my last monthly research piecefor Global Macro Investor called, The Unfolding, which I think was one of the moreimportant piece of research I've ever written. I really want to share the ideas with morepeople. 00:41 I'm actually going to give away that edition as part of Real Vision Pro. In addition, I'mgoing to do for Real Vision Pro and ask me anything about the whole context andframework that I'm about to lay out to you. I want to make sure that everybody gets anunderstanding of how my views are evolving. Now, don't forget, just because I've beenvery, very right recently doesn't mean I can't be spectacularly wrong. I'm trying to peerinto the future here and have an understanding of where this may all go. 01:24 Let me start at the beginning, because I think it's important to have the context of whatthis is all about. You see, back in 2016, rates have been rising. In fact, the rise in Libor, asI've mentioned in a few videos, was the fastest ever rise in the history of interest rates,and that alone has caused the economy to start to slow. You see, when you raise interestrates, the idea is to slow the economy and we could see it in ISM which peaked shortlyafterwards and started to decline, as GDP started to come under pressure as well. 02:04 The US is the world's biggest importer. Its business cycle is the world's business cycle. Wesaw commensurate slowdown starting all around the world, whether it was in China,where GDP started falling, whether it was in Germany, or whether it was in Japan, it wasall around the world, things were getting slower. Now, ordinarily, could have that gonethrough a recession? Normally, when we have an interest rate cycle of that magnitude, itwould lead to a recession. 02:34 This time, something else unique happened. There was a trade war. The trade war didsomething even more extraordinary, that pushed world trade negative as manufacturersaround the world scrambled for new supply chains, everybody was uncertain where to goso they pull back from the global system and try to figure it out. That brought down WorldPMI as world growth started slowing. In addition, it pushed up the value of the dollarbecause dollars were being taken out of the system, because there was less trade, therewas less money moving around, and therefore, the dollar rose dramatically. 03:18 We set ourselves up now for a second negative. That was the one that I thought, okay,this is tipping us into recession. If you remember, that was the premise of the Eurodollartrade, and the bond trade that I was involved in for most of last year, and some of thisyear, too. Then on top of that, another thing happened, if that wasn't enough, and that wasthe oil war. Suddenly, the price of oil collapsed. 03:46 Now, oil is incredibly important to the global economy. It lubricates the global economy.Oil is the commodity that makes more dollars flow around the system than anything else.It also is the shale patch in the US. The US manufacturing cycle is driven by the refinersand the oil production and the shale and the whole business involved in that. It's alsoglobal. Many countries' cashflows are based on it. This was a really big deal. 04:18 Then, at the same time, we had the Black Swan, COVID. COVID is now a full pandemic aswe know, and it's affected all of our lives. Over a million people have now had or have thevirus itself, and the numbers are still growing exponentially. When I last came on with anexpert view, I warned that this was going to be the biggest economic event of all of ourlifetimes. Now, that is playing out. 04:49 We've seen across the world economic data unlike anything I've ever seen before. Youcan see some of the charts here. Chinese retail sales collapsed, unprecedented negative20%. China car sales collapsed too, and China was the first part of this story. SingaporeGDP, the next part that fell. 05:14 Then the Eurozone fell off a cliff. That economic damage is literally unprecedented. It isthe biggest supply and demand shock the world has ever seen and right now, we don'tknow when it's going to end. That's going to bring me on to the full framework of how Ithink this plays out, and I call it The Unfolding. 05:37 The first part of the unfolding is the liquidation phase. That's the phase we're still in now.As the markets trying to grapple with this tail risk, trying to understand the probabilities ofwhat goes on, it meant that volatility exploded, and you can see this chart of the GMIvolatility index which is a basket of volatilities from oil, equities, fixed income,commodities, currencies, and as volatility explodes, everybody has to reduce risk. We sawthis massive risk reduction episode. 06:18 Now, what was really fascinating to me is that risk reduction episode had an eeriesimilarity to 1929. It's been playing out almost perfectly. It's been a bit faster this timearound, but the magnitude of the moves have been extraordinarily similar, and thestructure of the move is something really unprecedented in how close they are. That'sgiven us some framework. Not that I expect it to play out perfectly, but I expect it to giveus contextualization of how this might play out over time. 06:52 The next part of the liquidation was the credit spreads widening. Suddenly, everybodyrealized that credit, which was one of the biggest bubbles in the world was going to getliquidated. That's before there's any defaults, it's the fear, the panic, the risk reduction thathad to come through the credit markets. It came through across all of the volatilitystructure, and we saw market after market plummet. We even saw gold get hit in thisenvironment and Bitcoin, too, everybody was liquidating anything they could to realizesome cash. 07:27 The next part was bond yields collapsed for the financial plumbing seized up in this panicthis liquidation phase. With the plumbing seized up, the Fed came into action, thegovernment came into action, and we started to see huge scale stimulus. Now, it's nottruly stimulus here, because really, it's just trying to get the plumbing guy, it's not bigenough to stimulate and let's face it, putting more money in the system right now is notgoing to save a restaurant, or save any of us when it comes to earnings. It's only there toget the system working in some way, shape or form. 08:04 Now, what is driving this liquidation narrative? Well, it started with the spread from Chinato Europe. That's when I said we need to be ahead of the panic when Italy started gettingcases. Now then Italy went shocking then Spain went shocking then the UK and acrossEurope, one country after another, lockdown, lockdown, lockdown, and exploding numberof cases. The big issue was always going to be the United States, which was slow to actand slow to understand the nature of the threat. 08:38 That meant the world's eyes and particularly, the panicky liquidation phase of financialmarkets started to look at the US growth of the virus, where New York became theepicenter of it. Now, what's interesting now, if we look at the GMI projections, or howEurope played out, which is a similar size in terms of number of people in the economy,the US is now accelerating faster than Europe ever did. The market is gripped in thisliquidation. 09:09 Now, if you go back to that chart of 1929, it tells you that there's a probability that thismarket has not finished the liquidation yet. If you think of it in terms of the market wentdown about 35%, now, if this is truly the biggest economic event of our lifetimes, andthat's proven by the data, then that market should be down 50%. 30% would be a mildrecession. 80% would be a depression. 50% is a bad recession. 09:36 It feels to me that the market has some more to go and that will be backed up by that1929 chart. It feels like the next few weeks, as the US starts to see maybe New York peak,that once New York peaks, there'll be the horror of let's say New Orleans and Florida anda few other places that people start looking through and that will be the end of theliquidation phase. 10:02 The liquidation phase is really the market starting to have some optimism. When they seethe European case count, starting to peak and they extrapolate that the New York casecount will peak soon after, and therefore, the US will peak. That optimism of maybe wecan reopen the economy, maybe there'll be a vaccine, maybe there'll be some better wayof dealing with this, maybe we're going to see more vaccine shipped around the world.Maybe, maybe, maybe. That's what optimism drives the market. 10:35 That's when the market has been oversold and the players who have cash on thesidelines start looking for bargains, and there are bargains out there for people who knowwhat they're doing. That bounce phase, I think, is a very important phase, because I thinkit's going to be a phase based on a false narrative. Now, interestingly enough, 1929 to1930 had a six-month bounce phase. Again, then it was built on a false narrative. The falsenarrative, as in now was based on hope, hope that the US economy was going to getbetter. 11:11 Now, that was after the stimulus. Now, that's part of what's going on now. We know thecentral banks are going to do more stimulus and the government is going to do more.That's going to add to that fuel that the bulls want to grab hold of this, maybe this is goingto be okay. Maybe it is. It doesn't matter at this phase, because that's the long play. I thinkthat's something I'll be interested in looking at is playing the long side of this, the reliefrally, the optimism rally, but that's a rally you rent. It's not the rally you invest in, becausewe don't know how that's going to play out. 11:46 Now, between 1929 and 1930 that rally lasted six months, and it went up about 48%.Would it be six months this time? I doubt it, but I don't know. Is it going to look similar to1929? Not in structure, I don't think. I think it will be in terms of this phase, but I think thisphase is the false narrative and the reality is going to be extremely different. That is themost important thing I want to get across to you as we start shifting narrative. Thenarrative goes to the liquidation of fear and panic. That's the panic phase, then thebounce phase, where all of the bears are going to be scratching their heads and gettingreally fed up that none of their trades work and surely, the world's falling apart. Can't yousee it? Yes, they're right, probably but the market's still going to rise. 12:42 The next phase is the phase that concerns me, and I call it the insolvency. I think we'reabout to face the largest insolvency event in all recorded history. This is when thenarrative will diverge from the reality. I think the reality is here that this is a longer eventthan anybody understands. People are looking for a V shape, something fast. That's thehope. Maybe it's a U shape. That's what they think. I think they're going to be wrong, too.There are people talking about an L shape. I think they may be wrong as well. 13:24 I think of it more like a lightning bolt because I think that after the bounce, we slip slidelower and lower. That's where we see GDP growth generally negative year on year,quarter after quarter after quarter. That fear is based on insolvency. You see, as we know,the real issue in the world is debt. There is far too much of it. US corporate debt to GDP isat all-time record highs and I've warned about this in the doom loop, which has started tounravel. 13:59 That debt is a real problem. The government is also massively in debt. They're over 100%of debt, but they're going to have to add to debt to try and stimulate the economy. They'regoing to pile on huge amounts of debt, unprecedented amounts of debt onto thegovernment balance sheet, and eventually, the central bank balance sheet. The centralbanks will be stimulating in an unprecedented manner around the world, but the problemis, is the velocity of money will be zero. 14:34 You see, the banking system is going to hoard money and everybody's going to hoardmoney. It's not going to be lent out, the government's going to have to lend out to specificpeople and specific businesses. Then the central bank is going to have to underwrite thatbecause the government can't keep doing it. We've got ourselves in that nightmarishsituation where there's so much debt that nobody knows what to do. 14:57 As we've talked about in the past, a lot of that debt in the US and in Europe is actually inthe BBB sector. The BBBs are about three or so trillion in the US. Compare that to the sizeof the junk bond market, the table alone, which is 1 trillion. I'm guessing that maybe atrillion dollars gets downgraded so the size of the junk bond market doubles. Theproblem is there's not enough buyers of junk, and the market will freeze. 15:30 Then we have an issue where investment grade freezes and junk bonds freeze. That'spart of the doom loop that I've been warning about. I think that is coming up. Again, thegovernments are going to have to try and get involved. 15:45 The issue here is that I don't believe that the economy is going to open. Look at China,China was the first in the crisis. They shut down and then eventually started reopening.They've reopened factories. The problem is people are going to work to create goods tosell them to nobody. You see, the rest of the world is closed so China's building inventoryfor no purpose, except to put people in jobs. That, my friends, is how you go bankrupt. 16:21 An insolvency event in China, the odds of it arising by the day. China also shuts itsborders. They don't want visitors because they don't want to bring COVID back. Thatreduces the economic output within China because you stop travel. Also, H&M, forexample, opened all their stores in China, they still said they see their business downabout 50%. People have changed their habits. 16:49 When you look at the TomTom data, and I saw this it was about a week ago, of let's sayBeijing and Shanghai, what you're seeing is that during the week, things are busy. By thetime you get to the weekend, traffic is down 80%. People have changed their habits. Theydon't want to go out, don't want to socialize. In Beijing, there's still social distancing inrestaurants, everyone has their temperature checked. This is not a normal functioningsociety, this is a recession that's ongoing and will continue because the rest of the worldis in a recession, too. 17:24 The Prime Minister of Singapore told us the same thing. He was warning a couple ofweeks ago, in fact, a week ago that Singapore was not going to reopen its borders. Hesaid, we are going to have to keep closing down when COVID cases come back. This hasnot gone away. He said, we're going to have to deal with restaurants that are half empty,and businesses that don't work properly. We're going to have to deal with broken supplychains, and it's going to go on for a year or maybe two years. 17:51 That's the truth. That's the real issue here is none of this gets resolved quickly. Humanbehavior has changed so dramatically that I do not see anybody going back to theirprevious patterns for a while. Who's going to go to a concert? Who's going to go to arestaurant? Who's going to go to a busy social event? You're not, you're going to avoid itthe best you can. 18:14 If you go to a restaurant, you want to be away from everybody else. Restaurants can onlyoperate a half capacity because you need the distancing. Then guess what, Singapore onFriday, shut again. They got into lockdown again, in some way, shape or form. Again,because the virus has come back. We've seen a second wave in Japan now, and I'm sureJapan will start putting in place more measures. 18:37 Economies can't get going because of the virus. The vaccines or any otherbreakthroughs, they take time and you can't vaccinate enough people, you can't get holdof the stock, you can't do it fast enough. You can even enlist the army but it's still not fastenough to roll this out in a globalized world. This virus is spreading. Brazil is gettingterrifying now, India is just starting its trajectory. These things are going to keep going andgoing, and we don't know what the second wave looks like. Is it coming? It doesn't matter,the fear is there. 19:14 What I'm thinking is that in a world where negative GDP quarter on quarter continues andcontinues, well, when nobody has any cash, and everybody's in debt, the answer will beinsolvency. I think we're about to face the biggest insolvency crisis of all history, and thatwe can bring back the chart of the Dow in the 1930s. That was the next phase after thebounce. That was the insolvency event. I think that is really important to note. 19:50 I think this is what I fear, the down 80% depression market, as opposed to recession. 19:56 Now, again, I'm just saying that I actually think this is the highest probability case, I give itabout a 60% probability, but it doesn't mean it's certain. It's not saying Raoul Pal predictsit's definitely going to be a depression and the market is going to fall 80%. I don't wantheadlines like that. What I'm trying to do is give a probabilistic framework and this is how Isaid, and I'm immensely concerned by it. Now, again, we don't have to worry about this bitbecause we've got hopefully the bounce first. If the bounce comes, then we can assess.Maybe I'm wrong, maybe something changes, a miracle happens, and the marketcontinue to rise. That's fine, because we're going to be long or neutral at that point. Inwhich case, it's not a great problem. Then later, we can think and look at, do we need togo short or not? 20:44 You may have guessed by now that what I'm actually talking about is the thing the Fedfear the most, the thing they've been fighting for the last 20 years, a debt deflation. This iswhat is coming. Many of us understood that it would come at some point, but whenyou've got the rise in interest rates and the slowdown in the business cycle, followed bytrade wars, followed by the oil crisis, and followed by COVID, the probability isextraordinarily high that this is the big one, the big debt deflation. 21:18 I'm going to show you a few charts now that highlight what I think is going on. I thinkthey're really important so take a bit of time to have a look at these. The first chart is theReuters Commodity Index, the long term chart showing one of the biggest head andshoulders top patterns of all time. This is an All Commodity Index, and it suggests we'regoing into an enormous commodity price collapse. 21:43 This chart is the chart of 10-year bond yields in its regression channel. This is what I referto as the chart of truth, and it is one of the most powerful charts I've ever used. It'sbasically my whole career in this chart. This chart suggests that 10-year bond yields aregoing to go to zero, and probably negative. Now, negative rates may seem odd but if Ilook at the Fed Funds Rate in the same channel, it suggests that they go to 2% or less. 22:14 What is that about? Why the bond yields look like they're going negative? This is the debtdeflation. You see, CPI is going to go massively negative. I don't know how negative,negative five, negative eight, negative 10, I have no understanding, but it's going to behuge. That means that real yields adjusted for inflation are going to be going up and notdown. That's the real problem here, is when real yields go up, you destroy the economy.This is what the Fed have always feared when you run out of bond yield, and CPI goesnegative, and I don't think they can stop it. 22:57 That is the issue that's going to force the Federal Reserve to go negative and I think themarkets are going to go negative before the Fed did, they're going to tell them it's theonly way forward. Now also, if you think about it, I pretty much happily pay over thisperiod of a crisis, I pay the Fed half a percent a year from 10-year bonds, or negative half,so that's the negative half percent. It's my cost of safety of capital. Well, if I'm right and thestock market is going to 80%, Christ, I'll pay that as the cheapest option on Earth. 23:32 You need to think of that in terms of what negative yields mean. Negative yields isbasically you will pay for protection of your capital. Large sums of capital can't be held inbanks, large sums of capital can't be held in cash. There's not enough gold to keep thewhole pension system secure so you're going to have to have negative interest rates inthe United States. 23:55 The next chart is the chart of the Dow Jones in its same trend channels going back to itsinception. Now, we got very close to the top of the channel. I would guess if this is thebiggest economic event of all time, and the debt deflation, then this chart should go to thegreen line, which was the 80% collapse. That's what depressions do and that's what Ithink is potentially coming. 24:22 It's not only a story about commodities and yields. It's a story about the dollar. I've talkedabout this a lot. You see the dollar is trapped in this. The dollar is the big issue. The dollaris what's going to break the global system. There is too much dollar debt and not enoughdollars. The whole system is broken. A dollar in New York is not fungible with a dollar inLondon, and that is an issue when the Europeans and the Asians and the UK have lentenormous sums of money to corporations abroad. 24:59 These dollar swap lines, they're not going to help the situation. Because dollar swap linesgo to the central banks and don't flow through to the corporates. It goes through to thebanks, and the banks hold of themselves for their own needs. The corporates in SouthKorea, India, Brazil, they're desperate for dollars and it's a game of musical chairs. Thebest creditors get the dollars, the worst creditors scramble for them. They pay higher andhigher prices, they're desperate for them, they go insolvent, and there's less dollarsaround. 25:27 That musical chairs means another chair is pulled away, and the dollar goes higher andhigher and higher. Everybody is short the dollar. It's like a negative convexity or shortgamma trade. The higher it goes, the more people need to buy. It's a terrifying setup and Ido not see a way out of it. Now, let's look at the charts of the currencies because it'swritten all over them. 25:47 Here's the chart of the ADXY, which the Asian Currency Index. I've pointed this chart outfor a couple of years now. It's the biggest head and shoulders top pattern I've ever seen inany currency chart. This is telling us the Chinese are going to devalue and the rest of Asiais going to devalue with it. 26:04 The Euro is resting snugly on its 30-year support. The chance of this breaking lowerconsidering what is going on with the ECB now negotiating with the member states tofigure a wave of fiscal monetary stimulus, for that to be happening, the chances of thistrend line breaking while the dollar goes higher is extremely high and the Euro shouldstart its final leg down to let's say 80 or 75 cents against the dollar. I think that is what'scoming next. 26:37 I also think the yen is going to do the same. I think the yen, people are going to be wrongfooted. You see, the Japanese they have an extraordinary situation where they own mostof their own bond market. They've get into the end of what quantitative easing can do.They own most of their retail market. 26:55 What are they going to do to stimulate? They can't build any more bridges and roads.They've got old population, Japan's got everything, it's difficult to stimulate Japan. What'sthe answer? The answer in Japan is going to be what the answer is for everybody else inthe end, to buy all of the debt and write it off in a debt jubilee. That, even for hints of thatcoming, is going to see dollar/yen explode to 150 or 200 or 250. 27:23 You see, if you buy all the bonds, then the currency will take the slack because think of itas simple terms is all of those life insurance companies, all of that money in Japan, ifthere's no bond market, they are going to go abroad. All of that money washes out of theJapanese system, collapses their currency, which is actually what Japan needs. It helpsthem become competitive. It changes the rate of inflation entirely in Japan, and can givethem a restart, but I think that is what's written all over that dollar/yen chart. 27:52 Finally, the chart of the RMB. The RMB is a massive wage pattern. Now, it's a bit clunkybecause of the RMB is a pegged currency essentially, but it looks to me that once we startbreaking through 7.5 or so, we're going to hit eight, nine and maybe even 10 in a hurry.You see, China has most of this $13 trillion of debt, China's got the largest part of it. Chinais struggling with the ability to get dollars, its reserves are spoken for, its reserves are forthe government's needs, and the state owned enterprises. 28:27 There are all the other corporates who have their needs for dollars, and I don't think thatthe Chinese central bank will give them that or can give them that. I think the only answeris a collapse of the currency. I think this is what is coming, and these are all hyperdeflationary events. This would spread a wave of deflation that is still unprecedented andthat's what that commodity chart is telling you. That's what the bond charts are telling you.That is what the currency charts is telling you. The full debt deflation. 28:59 That debt deflation is when everybody becomes insolvent. Whether it's companies likeFord, or the restaurant down the street, or whether it's your best friend, whether it's you,that is the shitty situation we're stuck with and I don't really easily see a way out. That'sgoing to lead us into what I refer to as the everything crisis. 29:21 Just to make this everything crisis clear to you, because I want everybody to follow theframework and the understanding. I'm going to put up this chart. This is part of a chart thatI actually made in a presentation to a group of Brazilian family offices last week, but itshows you the magnitude of everything here and what we're dealing with. 29:39 You see, this crisis has elements of the Asian crisis, which was a debt crisis, and thecrushing of the hubris of the Chinese, of the Tiger economies. It has the elements of2000, which was an equity bubble. It has the elements of 2008, which was a liquiditycrisis. There's elements of 1929, which was all of them, plus a currency crisis and thesolvency crisis. You see, before I go into this list 1929 to 1933, the final resolution of thatwas a devaluation of the dollar by 40% off the gold standard, and the largest fiscalstimulus ever undertaken in the history of the United States, and a massive change to theregulatory environment, a massive shift of allocation of money from the rich to the poor,and a huge change. 30:27 What was amazing is people thought that that would be a terrible economic event, and itwould push inflation, and it would drive the economy into the ground as taxation went up.Actually, the reverse happened, it was the largest boom period in the history of UnitedStates, even with the war period in the middle of it, the same policies were followedafterwards. What we've got here is the largest equity bubble of all time, which is part ofthe pension crisis and the buyback bubble. 30:53 The largest wave of retirees of all time, which is the pension crisis, where retirees own allthe stocks and all the credit and they're about to risk it all. The largest corporate creditbubble of all time, the doom loop, the student loan bubble, the auto loan bubble, theindexation bubble, the ETF market structure illiquidity bubble, the foreign borrowingsbubble, which is the dollar standard bubble, a bubble in monetary policy, the central bankhubris bubble, and an EU and probably a Japanese banking crisis. 31:25 You see, it's very difficult for this not to be a chain of events. I don't see how you can havelow economic growth, recession growth and not force out the bankruptcies. You saw whathappened to Ford, car sales are down 92% around the world. Well, guess what? Fordcompares debt gets downgraded. That's just the canary in the coal mine. It's going tohappen everywhere. 31:53 Governments are going to do absolutely everything they can to support the balancesheet but think of it, what's going on right now is basically, governments around the worldare protecting some income, not full income. Nobody's going to have-- there's no bounceback because they've been given free cash. No, this is a subsidy for living costs, it's notgoing to help. It is a pause, adding debt on top saying, well, we'll extend you some debtfor small businesses, that's not going to help, tax breaks aren't going to help. 32:24 You've got the slow growth environment with a really wounded population around theworld who have psychological scarring and don't want to consider. This is a generationalshift. This is the Fourth Turning Neil Howe talks about. This is a massive, massive change.That change leads to everybody going bust and I think in the end of it, we'd end uphaving to abandon the dollar standard as the dollar skyrockets and we move towards adifferent world. 32:55 What does that all mean? That means that well, bonds still work for us now, we canprotect ourselves in bonds, because they're not going to collapse, and the central bank isgoing to buy the ball before they collapse. That's okay, that gives us some safety. Cash issafe too. Don't forget the FDIC insured limits of $100,000. Make sure you're carefulbecause there are going to be banks that are going to go under in this. The Fed knowhow to deal with a financial crisis. They've just dealt with one. That is the least of myconcerns, the solvency crisis nobody consult. 33:33 If I'm right, and all the central banks stop printing money, and they print money for fiscalstimulus, so the government spends money, issues bonds, the central bank buys, themdirect monetization. MMT. It's coming. There's no other way of dealing with this.Governments have no choice because if they don't do it, they're fucked anyway, sothey're going to do that and they're going to use it try and hopefully buy votes and they'lldo whatever they want to do with it. 34:00 The point being is it's going to weaken the value of money itself. It's not just the US, it's aglobal phenomenon. Now, the US is troubling because everybody's borrow US dollarsand that's going to be a real issue because those printing of money stays and getshoarded, it doesn't go around the system so there's going to be that scramble but in all ofthis, something is going to shine. That's obviously going to be gold. 34:27 If you can protect yourself personally, buy some gold, buy some physical gold. We'reactually going to do-- we're just sorting out a deal with a gold storage company, and agold brokerage company to try and help people get physical gold and store it to make iteasy for people so keep your eyes peeled from Real Vision for that because I think that'simportant. That's certainly what I'm doing with my money. 34:52 Then after that, it's all about Bitcoin for me. I've talked a lot about it. I'm extraordinarilybullish and I think it provides a lot of answers. Bitcoin is short form for the entire digitalspace that's coming. The blockchain, crypto, the new way of doing things. It is incrediblyimportant because the world's biggest hive mind is building out an extraordinary financialsystem in front of our eyes. 35:17 Many of you don't know it, you're still debating whether Bitcoin's real or not, but there'sliterally hundreds of thousands of people and billions of dollars of capital racing to build anew system, whether it's a payment mechanism, storage mechanism, a custodymechanism, a verification mechanism. It's all coming. There's going to be a number ofdifferent solutions, but Bitcoin is the easiest way to play it. I think Bitcoin has all theattributes of the hardest currency on earth, and even better, the central banks are tellingme I'm going to be right. 35:51 Mark Carney from the Bank of England, then walk away from the ECB, the PBOC, theBank of Japan and almost every other central bank have started admitting that they'redoing work on digital currencies. Why digital currencies? How does that whole thing?Surely, we'll be digital now. Well, no. It gives us the instant settlement layer and all of thatstuff, but the reality is we're desperate to move away from the dollar standard. That's whatMark Carney was talking about a while ago at Jackson Hole, I think it was. 36:28 That is the real issue here, is this dollar standard doesn't work. The world is too reliant ondollars, and there isn't enough dollars to make world trade and the financial plumbingfunction. They're going to move to something else. I think it's going to be a basket ofdigital currencies, much like the Libra construct. I think that then stops the dollar being somuch of world trade. It's not because the dollar is not the reserve currency it because itbecame the super reserve currency. The dollar ate every other currency and then itbegan to eat itself. That's the problem here. 37:08 In this phase of eating itself in this dollar super spike, it's going to break the whole system.I think that we're going to have to move to something new. Now, that's exactly whathappened in the 1930s when the US had to abandon the gold standard and devalued by40%, which is a huge number. Even though the US had been accumulating all the gold,the dollar was too strong. The rest of the world was falling apart because again, of thedollar being too strong in a global world where the dollar had just become the world'sreserve currency. 37:46 I really do believe that Bitcoin is a bet and I think gold may have a three to five x upside,and that's great. It will protect your purchasing power. It does its job. It always has. Bitcoinmay make you rich. Yes, it's much more volatile and I don't think it's going to go to zero,could it fall around 50%? Sure, but where is it going? Well, I think it goes to $100,000 andeventually on to a million dollars and beyond that. 38:15 That's the upside I've never seen from any asset class ever. Bitcoin already is the bestperforming asset class with all recorded history. I know many of you are cynics, and I don'tcare because there's room for all of us. There's plenty of room in gold, there's plenty ofroom in bonds. There's plenty of room in cash, if it's cash, you own US dollars. 38:36 That's the situation that I see playing out. The unfolding is the liquidity event that we startwith, where the market is echoing 1929 and we probably have the final panic leg to come.After the panic leg, there'll be the optimism leg, when people see an end to the growth ofthe virus, at least in the places that they're looking at, and they're projecting theiroptimism into markets. I think then the market rallies quite a long way and for a significantperiod of time, and that rally will be that fear based rally, meaning that there'll be plenty ofbad news, but the market still ignores it. 39:20 I think underlying, the economy will be getting worse. We'll be seeing more and moresigns of insolvency taking place. The small signs here and there, and that's what we needto be looking for. I also think that the dollar goes higher over that period as the US sucksin yet more capital from abroad and the global growth slowdown means that those dollarsare hard to come by. Then, if I'm right, well, in fact, doesn't matter if I'm right, at that point,we can then make the assessment. 39:52 Are we going to Raoul's probability of 60% of a full debt deflation and the biggestinsolvency event in history or not? We can adjust them. I think the reality is, is we need toplan for the big events. I think the big event would be that recession that goes on for twoor three years, and truly changes everything. 40:14 For those of you who can, you might want to go to Real Vision Pro where you can readthe full report. Ask me anything there as well. I will be talking a bit more about this, but Ijust wanted to make sure that you guys are aware of my framework going forwards. Goodluck, and I wish you all to stay safe, flatten the curve. I know this is hard. I know it's hardfor everybody to be cooped up at home. 40:40 Look, we're thinking of you. We're all in this together. We are a community and we'restronger and better as a community. Hopefully, we can protect some capital and maybeeven make some money on the way because many of us are going to lose a lot of moneyin other areas. Let's try and help ourselves and help each other. Thanks.

To: carranza2 who wrote (163687)	10/14/2020 9:29:57 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217714

this below you can quickly peruse whilst waiting for your morning coffee In the meantime, on another front, per Martin Armstrong's read ask-socrates.com Is Everyone Ignoring Europe? WEDNESDAY, 14 OCTOBER 2020 BY: MARTY ARMSTRONG QUESTION: Dear Martin, Recently you wrote "Trump is much more popular outside the USA" and I have some doubts. As an European I only see the media saying bad things about Trump. The socialist Europe loves to say bad things about him but interestingly they fear Trump also. The media here are just doing CNNs job. Maybe in Asia things are different but can't comment about it. At same time, isn't time running out for Europe? When I look at the DAX in USD terms, I only see the confirmation of a weak euro going forward, not to mention the CAC in USD Terms... With everyone so focused in the US elections, are we ignoring the facts in Europe? Digital Euros, Covid-19 disaster, political situation, public debts, lack of innovation and negative rates killing ALL banks and pensions... just to mention a few. All the best and thanks for the excellent work! J ANSWER: The media in Europe is definitely anti-Trump because they are in a conspiracy to push Schwab's Great Reset. I know of Journalists who were offered jobs at the World Economic Forum because of their connections with media and to push their agenda. The same can be said in Canada. But the people are protesting and even supporting Trump against their own governments which they see as becoming authoritarian. I get a lot of emails from overseas commenting on how they see Trump as their last hope fearing that if he loses, then the USA will join the agenda of Europe and Canada for that matter. Often people fail to look at the global trends. I have put the two charts of the real Dax Price index which we also cover. There high in terms of Euros was January 2018 whereas the high in dollars was 2015. It has been this trend that has been lurking behind the entire US share market rally. In US$ terms, this has been a 5-year decline. Our model is warning that breaking this low here in March 2020 means that we should expect a decline that will move into 2021 and breaking any 2021 low points into 2024. I agree that at this moment all eyes are on the US election. We may see Trump win the November 3 in-person vote, but then the chaos begins. States like New Jersey have sent in mail-in ballots to EVERYONE and the in-person polls are effectively closed. If you go down there, you just drop your ballot in a box. The machines have been circumvented. I believe that Socrates forecast that not only would Trump win in 2016 back in 1985 at the start of this wave (1985.65 + 31.4 = 2017.05) which was the precise day of his inauguration, but it also forecast that the 2020 election would be the most corrupt in American history. That has far surpassed what even I expected. This is why I say it is impossible to forecast from just a personal opinion. Every time I thought Socrates would be wrong, it has been me that is wrong. We are showing that the minimum Trump would win in the Electoral College is 251 with 7 states we show in play which is another 96 votes, not based upon the polls: Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Utah, and Virginia. Therefore, a true Red Wave would 347 votes for Trump, and the Senate remains Republican. Resistance begins at 297. If we look at the extreme left states, California, Oregon, and Washington state, they represent 74 votes with California being the state with the most votes.

To: carranza2 who wrote (163687)	10/16/2020 3:20:27 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217714

Might have to engage w/ GBTC and ETHE, but this time refrain from claiming any short term win of profit and stick around for the proverbial LT The Raoul Pals Message 32982780 of this world make a good case for some amount of exposure as exposure is not 0 / 1 Stuff like below does not make engagement easy bloomberg.com Chinese Police Investigation Halts Withdrawals at Cryptoexchange OKEx Zheping Huang 16 October 2020, 14:18 GMT+8 Chinese police have launched an investigation linked to cryptocurrency exchange giant OKEx, forcing one of the world’s largest Bitcoin trading platforms to block users globally from withdrawing money. An unidentified staffer responsible for users’ private keys -- accounts where they store crypto assets -- has been “out of touch” as the person cooperates with a police investigation, the Malta-based exchange said in a statement Friday. As a result, the company has halted all cryptocurrency withdrawals, without saying when they will resume. Bitcoin fell 2.9% to around $11,216 on Friday before recouping some of those losses. OKEx, founded by tech entrepreneur Star Xu, is one of the most active cryptocurrency spot and derivatives trading platforms, alongside the likes of Binance and Huobi. Originally from China, the startup moved its base to Malta after Beijing started to crack down on crypto trading. “In order to act in the best interests of customers and deliver exceptional longtime customer service, we have decided to suspend digital assets/cryptocurrencies withdrawals as of [October 16, 2020 at 11:00 (Hong Kong Time)]. We assure that OKEx’s other functions remain normal and stable and the security of your assets at OKEx will not affected,” it said in an English statement. A representative for OKEx didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. Read more: China’s Crackdown on Cryptocurrencies Claims First Victims — With assistance by Joanna Ossinger (Updates with Bitcoin prices in the second paragraph) Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. LEARN MORE