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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (163862)	10/18/2020 7:23:05 AM
From: Julius Wong	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217734

Just buy Mega Cap Growth ETF, elite.finviz.com

To: TobagoJack who wrote (163862)	10/18/2020 1:36:01 PM
From: sense	Respond to of 217734

Do find that fascinating for a couple of reasons. A while back I'd posted here about my choice to "quit playing" for a few days, because it was clear to me that I'd "lost the beat" and I wasn't moving in rhythm with the moves the market was making... much like being on a dance floor and suddenly noticing that everyone else is moving differently than you are... apparently hearing a different beat. Did the DJ change the disc... and I alone somehow didn't notice it ? Time for a drink... and perhaps an apology mumbled to your partners toes. That was a short-term issue rather than a longer period timing problem... but, the timing of any trade always ties to the periodicity of the market... requiring you to have a good sense of where you are at any given time in relation to the trend over varying time periods. The article says, to me, that not only did Russell lose the beat... he lost situational awareness in relation to the trends, and the periodicity in the trends over time. Getting the trade right, of course, depends on both having the "feel" for the situation right, first, and then ALSO having the timing right, to be able to synch your trade to it. Being right on "the market must crash" could have had you short the market ever since the post-2008 peak... just waiting for March of 2020 the whole time. Of course, if you were... and just that... you'd have been bounced from the club long ago. Even being wrong on the big picture and the related big picture timing issues... you can survive and profit, as long as you keep the beat well enough to avoid having the mass of all the other dancers flailing against you and beating you to a pulp, one elbow at a time. He's not wrong that Covid forced an unexpected change in the beat. Suddenly, we're not all writhing in rhythm in a club pounding out Euro-techno pulse that's impossible to avoid, even outside the club and a block down the street. Instead, suddenly... it seems there's a silence.... which has you noticing things you'd missed before. So, it could be that what you hear now is just your ears ringing ? But, some might suddenly notice that, no, there's a background hum. And, after you've noticed it for the first time, it seems it changes...? That awareness leads us to learn there are probably big things happening, all the time, that we'd just been missing, before... in the markets as well as in the physical world... Most people have now long since filed out of the club, long after the plug was pulled on the whole idea that writhing like grunion on the dance floor during a pandemic could ever have made a lick of sense... Most have just gone home to wait for the club to re-open... and they will never hear the hum... or understand the tectonic nature of the deep subterranean events that hearing the hum allows you to understand... maybe. Focusing, to lock on to one frequency range and sort out the noise... still makes sense. Some hear a bit of ragtime and a waltz playing somewhere... although some others dispute the fact... leaving reality, as often, in conflict with popular myths. Russell seems to be catching a bit of Elton John... but still not at all clear that he's actually in synch with the beat, there, either. Turning the radio dial, now, looking for something with harmonics that's not just noise or a BBC shortwave broadcast of the news... As compelling a story as a sinking ship (or investment fund) might be... its still only one story... truly impacting a very tiny minority of the people on the planet... even the overly narrow focus requiring the realization that the loss of one ship is counter-balanced by some greater number still being built. Not that we should ignore the lessons there to be learned from a proper appraisal of the history. Investors, many still engaged in placing long or short bets based only on the timing of some expected resolution of a singular event... might want to focus more attention, instead, on what recent events are showing still works, now... that will probably also continue to work in the future... ? Russell, instead, remains confused... so, rather than finding a new beat he can dance to, on the radio, at home... he instead backs out to adopt a "bigger picture" view... reducing the scope of the problem to one he hopes is binary... like an on-off switch. A coin flip seems much less risky, to some, than delivering a result based on understanding some complex and extended scheme in choreography... which is the reality in every business. But, turning the radio off... then back on... doesn't guarantee you'll get a tune you can dance to ?