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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ggersh who wrote (163887)	10/19/2020 3:44:17 AM
From: sense	Respond to of 217942

Right, even if for the wrong reasons, is still right ? March 2019: A Perfect Storm Is Developing Over Container Shipping November 2019: The Plunge In Global Shipping Container Rates Means The Economic Rebound Will Have To Wait September 2020: Container Rate Records Are Shattered As US Imports Surge But, what's driving the surge... and how long will it last ? Some might be willing to ignore the data showing shipping is booming right now... I'm not one of them. The U.S. perhaps is emerging from the worst of the virus "lockdowns"... and that alone will drive a short-term uptick in economic activity. Charter rates are up... ships recently in surplus are now in short supply, or "sold out" even though shipping company "shares have yet to bounce" ? But, again, what's driving it ? Is the economy really on the upswing already ? Or, is it China pushing cargo forward ahead of their recent holiday ? Maybe a little bit of both of those, as the link mentions. Some also suggesting that its driven by retailers re-stocking ahead of the holiday shopping season in the US... that market likely to be boosted, eventually, by additional stimulus, perhaps coming just after the election. But, also, even much more likely, is that traders on both ends are trying get out ahead of the scheduled increase in tariffs due to kick in this December, unless China somehow fulfills the commitments on trade that it made with Trump earlier in the year. If China WERE planning to do that... that might explain some of the change we see occurring in shipping... if the drivers of the increased traffic were seen heading west from the U.S., instead of east to the U.S. ? No one is saying that's what they see... And, last I looked... no one is expecting much new that's good to come out of that relationship any time soon... while China appears to be a long way from even trying to make good on those commitments they've already made... making it impossible to sustain future focused talks on any rational basis. So, I'd think the bump in shipping, now, is actually a hugely negative future indicator of the trends in trade, rather than a leading indicator of some accelerating improvement that's going to kick and stick. Stocking up before the storm hits... isn't a great leading indicator of real, long term future activity ?