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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maxwell who wrote (13550)	1/29/1998 11:47:00 PM
From: Candle stick	Respond to of 25960

Thank you Maxwell for that well thought out response....;^)....EOM.

To: Maxwell who wrote (13550)	1/29/1998 11:52:00 PM
From: Maxwell	Respond to of 25960

Update from the Competition: Actual ----------------------------------- EPS # Lasers Backlog Stock 0.24 133 $108.70 ??????? Number Players EPS # Lasers Backlog Stock (Millions) 1 Ellizabeth S. $0.23 128 $116.00 $14.63 2 Mr. Aloha $0.23 130 $106.00 $18.00 3 Baird Soule $0.23 133 $108.00 $17.00 4 Daryl Olson $0.24 133 $105.00 $15.50 5 Robert Grutza $0.24 131 $114.00 $16.50 6 Thomas J. W. $0.24 122 $120.00 $15.12 7 Zeev Hed $0.24 135 $110.00 $14.25 8 Mike Jolley $0.25 140 $100.00 $15.50 9 NW Bronco Fan $0.25 135 $115.00 $17.38 10 Richard A. R. $0.25 135 $110.00 $14.25 11 Anthony Lore $0.26 131 $111.00 $17.88 12 Daniel Yeung $0.26 140 $200.00 $17.75 13 Yakov Lurye $0.26 130 $115.00 $16.00 14 Cymeed $0.27 138 $110.00 $14.00 15 Eddy Bas $0.27 143 $120.00 $19.00 16 Maxwell $0.27 137 $130.00 $18.00 17 Tulvio Durand $0.28 150 $100.00 $16.25 18 Tim Andrews $0.28 140 $135.00 $18.75 19 Curlton Latts $0.29 150 $100.00 $15.00 20 Edward A. F. $0.29 139 $133.00 $19.00 21 John R.Resseger $0.30 139 $109.00 $20.00 22 Robert DeHaven $0.30 144 $110.00 $14.00 23 Scott Violette $0.30 144 $136.00 $18.00 24 George Wu $0.31 140 $125.00 $18.00 25 RBlatch $0.31 145 $138.00 $19.25 25 Robert Cordiano $0.36 136 $131.00 $18.50 26 Denis K. G. $0.27 144 $100.00 $17.88 Mean $0.27 137 $118.78 $16.87 Deviation $0.03 7 $20.05 $1.82 % Error------------------------------------------- Number Players EPS # Lasers Backlog Stock Avg % Error 1 Daryl Olson 0.00% 0.00% 6.15% ????? 2.05% 2 Zeev Hed 0.00% 9.52% 2.16% ????? 3.90% 3 Baird Soule 11.11% 0.00% 1.16% ????? 4.09% 4 Robert Grutza 0.00% 9.52% 8.81% ????? 6.11% 5 Richard A. R. 11.11% 9.52% 2.16% ????? 7.60% 6 Mr. Aloha 11.11% 14.29% 4.49% ????? 9.96% 7 NW Bronco Fan 11.11% 9.52% 10.47% ????? 10.37% 8 Anthony Lore 22.22% 9.52% 3.82% ????? 11.86% 9 Yakov Lurye 22.22% 14.29% 10.47% ????? 15.66% 10 Ellizabeth S. 11.11% 23.81% 12.14% ????? 15.69% 11 Mike Jolley 11.11% 33.33% 14.46% ????? 19.64% 12 Cymeed 33.33% 23.81% 2.16% ????? 19.77% 13 Thomas J. W. 0.00% 52.38% 18.79% ????? 23.72% 14 Maxwell 33.33% 19.05% 35.41% ????? 29.26% 15 John R.Resseger 66.67% 28.57% 0.50% ????? 31.91% 16 Eddy Bas 33.33% 47.62% 18.79% ????? 33.25% 17 Denis K. G. 33.33% 52.38% 14.46% ????? 33.39% 18 Robert DeHaven 66.67% 52.38% 2.16% ????? 40.40% 19 Tim Andrews 44.44% 33.33% 43.72% ????? 40.50% 20 Edward A. F. 55.56% 28.57% 40.40% ????? 41.51% 21 George Wu 77.78% 33.33% 27.10% ????? 46.07% 22 Tulvio Durand 44.44% 80.95% 14.46% ????? 46.62% 23 Curlton Latts 55.56% 80.95% 14.46% ????? 50.32% 24 Robert Cordiano 100.00% 14.29% 37.07% ????? 50.45% 25 Daniel Yeung 22.22% 33.33% 100.00% ????? 51.85% 25 Scott Violette 66.67% 52.38% 45.39% ????? 54.81% 26 RBlatch 77.78% 57.14% 48.71% ????? 61.21% I want to thank you everyone for participating in the CYMI's Q4 Competition. Everyone did really well. We even have some ACES here. In calculating the % error for each of the category I have to normalize the number to be meaningful. For example, to calculate the % error for te EPS, I use the following equation -------% EPS Error= (Your # - Actual)/(3Deviation) The 3Deviation includes 99.9% of all the estimates from the group. If your # hits the actual the numerator=0. Most error will be less than 100% since all the data points lie inside the 3 sigma. For outliers beyond 3 sigma I just round the % error to 100%. Thus the most you can be off is 100%. The average % error is just the average of the 4 categories with the stock price being missing for the moment. Thus after 3 rounds our ACES are #1 Daryl Olson #2 Zeev Hed #3 Baird Soule Tomorrow at the close I will update the final results. Sorry there are no prizes to be given out here since you all are much more wealthy than I am. Furthermore even if there is a prize given it still would not be good enough for you. Perhaps next time we will come up with a SI Trophy, something NON-MONEY related item. Maxwell