Re CoVid, chart looking unfriendly but maybe doesn't matter if folks not dying
nytimes.com
some say edition.cnn.com
Wearing masks could save more than 100,000 US lives through February, new study suggests(CNN) — If 95% of Americans wore masks in public, more than 100,000 lives could be saved from Covid-19 through February, a new modeling study suggests. The study -- from the Covid-19 forecasting team at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation -- notes that, in September, only about 49% of US residents reported that they "always" wear a mask in public.
and
others feel ft.com
Researchers say universal mask use could save 130,000 lives in the USWarning comes as new Covid-19 cases are climbing quickly in multiple states
9 hours ago
 Mask requirements vary across the US, with some places mandating their use in all public spaces, while others have taken a more lax approach © BloombergUniversal mask use could save 130,000 lives in the US in the coming months, according to a forecast that warns the country’s Covid-19 death toll could reach 500,000 by February.
Christopher Murray, director of the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation and an author of the paper published in Nature, said masks were an “easy win” to save lives and delay other restrictions being imposed.
“We are heading into a very substantial fall, winter surge. So the idea that the pandemic is going away?.?.?.?is, we do not believe, true,” he said. “We are heading towards quite high levels of daily death in late December, January, leading to very considerable cumulative deaths in the United States.”
Researchers said in the Nature paper that states that have already suffered considerably — including California, Texas and Florida — will face particularly high levels of disease and death.
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The paper was published the day after President Donald Trump and Joe Biden, his Democratic challenger, clashed over whether Covid-19 would bring a deadly surge to the US as colder weather sets in.
Mr Biden forecast a “dark winter” and recommended increasing mask use, while Mr Trump rejected the idea and said the country was opening up again.
On Friday Mr Biden repeated his vow to, as president, mandate mask-wearing in federal buildings and in all interstate transportation. He said he would also ask governors and local officials to mandate mask-wearing in cities and states across the US. Currently, jurisdictions vary, with some requiring masks to be worn in all public places, while others take a more lax approach.
“Masks save lives, period,” he said in a speech in his hometown of Wilmington, Delaware. “Wearing a mask is not a political statement. It's a scientific imperative. It's a point of patriotic pride, so we can pull our country out of this God-awful spiral we are in. And it is a testament to the values we are taught by our families and by our faith: love thy neighbour as thyself.”
The US on Thursday reported 76,560 new coronavirus cases — one of the highest daily increases in the country since the pandemic began, according to Covid Tracking Project data — and 1,173 deaths. So far, more than 214,000 people in the US have died from the disease, according to the Covid Tracking Project.
The predictions are based on both current levels of mask wearing and expecting that states will introduce more stringent social distancing measures as the spread accelerates.
Dr Murray said it would be “very difficult” to prevent a surge, but masks could help — the model estimates that they could reduce each individual’s spread by 40 per cent.
“You need to have been to New Zealand or Australia, and really avoid widespread community transmission, if you want to avoid that sort of surge entirely,” he said.
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The model is based on data including prior Covid-19 case and death rates, regional information on winter pneumonia and air pollution, as well as cell phone data and survey data from Facebook that breaks down how often people are wearing masks and in what circumstances.
When forecasting 10 weeks out, its average error rate is about 20 per cent, but it is more uncertain the further into the future it projects.
Dr Murray questioned reports that the survival rate was improving, saying it was hard to tell because of a “tremendous variation” in who gets admitted to hospital and in testing rates.
If fewer sick people are now being admitted to hospital or more cases are being caught by tests, it might look like survival rates are improving, even if they are not.
After studying it for six weeks, he said: “It’s been much harder to find that effect that everyone thinks is happening.” |
