To: Steve Felix who wrote (33149 ) 10/25/2020 8:53:03 PM From: robert b furman 1 RecommendationRecommended By CusterInvestor
Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 34328 Hi Steve, T has been hard headed about not discounting the service. When I moved to take care of my Mom, I took over paying her bills. I got a one year deep discounted Direct TV plan. After that year it went up quite a bit and then there were price increases (now over 200.00 per month and it started out at 120.00ish). We are rural and satellite is the only game in town(Dish or Direct TV). Over the years my wife added HBO during the Game of Thrones era. We still have it and even now on a weekend of not going out, we'll add a movie at an elected extra cost. So yes a lot of folks cut the cord, but a lot of folks still pay very good money. As streaming becomes the new media, I'm sure T wants to keep their sticky customers to transition them to the better technology. Not sure where they'd say it's time to pull out and sell the business. A huge writedown would save a lot of taxes,and a big 1iquidity event would buy back a lot of stock that is three times more expensive to continue the dividend than pay off the 20 year debt @ 2%. T seems to be more than capable at mastering large debt by either reducing it and or diversifying it to a very low cost and levered by a wide variety of instruments. (common stock,preferred stock 10 year and 30 year debt) Few companies have the future cash flow to manage what T has. Their wireless is there cash cow and they pursued FIOS for decades, but along the way have secured huge exclusive contracts with Microsoft, IBM, not to mention an exclusive the the first responders of the United States government "First Net"- this was a huge strategic win. As their superiority is shown to the first responders through experience of use, they allow the responders to piggyback onto the system. It's part of the wireless subscriber growth story that allowed them to handily surpass VZ's performance. I'm not a wireless expert by any means, but I believe they have the better network and technology and in their sector of business, THAT'S A BIG PLUS FOR THE FUTURE in my way of thinking. I accumulated a lot of shares over a 3-4 year period,scaling down with selling long term puts. With small additions after dividend, I now have an average right at $31.00 hoping next years dividend goes up the usual 4 cents and that will yield 6.84%. If the bump the dividend 2 % a year for 5 years ,I'll be in the 7.5% yield and a double in just under 10 years. If that evolves, I'll be very secure and happy in my retirement. This is not intended to be a capital gains play, but it might just surprise there as well. I think the news has been overly negative on T. It could well be a nice surprise as its solid performance of achieving their stated goals is proven out with greater time. After all Covid will pass and the Time Warner has been hit hard. T and KMI are both getting bad raps, as well as XOM and CVX. These are all long term great balance sheets with huge assets at greatly depreciated values. I've been adding to all of these with by selling far out in time puts. I allocated the sold puts collateralized by cash from the sale of the puts and supplemented by my dividend revenue stream being received out into the future. Dividends being suspended or reduced and a change in taxation rates are my biggest worries. Keeping with in the realm of the 65 Dividend Aristocrats allows me to sleep better. I do take some trade opportunities on stocks like INTC and IBM,but they are just trades. Lastly I have a legacy investment in semi equipment companies that I accumulated during my working career. During that time period I rather hard headedly continued to buy an undue concentration of Cohu - a company I have owned since 1978. In and out of it completely three times. Upon retirement I began a very slow sell off of Cohu and a diversity into other semi's. I worked into CY which has been acquired, and Brks which has been a wonderful long term hold for me. So far my unrealized gains have exceeded my negative unrealized losses with T, KMI, CVX, and XOM. In between that change in portfolio direction my account equity has gone up a range of 25 to 50 percent and my dividend stream has quadrupled. Of course it has been a ten year bull market and I know that will not always last. I'd add that when I found your dividend reinvestment thread, it was hugely formative and beneficial. I will always be grateful for your work and open posting here. Next year, I'll pull most of my dividends to build a shop for my old Chevy car collection. I p After I get that behind me,lan on building what all wealthy people strive for - a chicken coop with a garage door opener on it. LOL Yup buddy, I've been paying attention on how the good life lives! <smile> Thanks for all you and many others do here! I've been slowly trying to build my retirement portfolio at the wholesale cost of doing it myself. Certainly not without errors, but solid enough for me to sleep well at night, knowing it is a long term endeavor! Bob