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Technology Stocks : Osicom(FIBR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ploni who wrote (5060)	1/30/1998 9:04:00 AM
From: J.B.C.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10479

You may be right, craig could very well be a product of IBM. What planet did eddy blinker arive here from? Jim

To: Ploni who wrote (5060)	1/30/1998 9:55:00 AM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10479

<< Unfortunately, he seems to be making a careful study of my portfolio, and taking the opposite position on every one of my holdings. He shorts FIBR, goes long YHOO, and now he's short on CYMI. Unless he's just going to position trade around my longer-term holdings, we can't both come out ahead. >> There a lot of misconceptions on this thread and I 'd like to clear some of them up. First of all I'm not short CYMI. In the private message I had with you yesterday I said I thought CYMI was a short there. (meaning at that time). That didn't actually mean I was short, and CYMI was at 15 7/8 when I said that. CYMI closed at 15 1/4 after bouncing off 15. I wouldn't have carried a short position into earnings like that. CYMI is in my favorites of my profile and will remain there as long as they continue to execute their business properly. Furthermore, I was short YHOO just like you and even declared it my #1 pick for 1998. I subsequently switched to shorting FIBR as my #1 pick for 1998 when it climbed above 5 and became easily shortable again. The only reason why I went long YHOO was because the sentiment was overwhelmingly bearish on the thread and YHOO was down like 9 out of the last 10 days. Short interest is up AGAIN and shorts are runnig scared scrambling to lock in profits. It seemed like a pretty good idea at the time. Don't think I won't switch sides and go back to shorting YHOO again. In fact I might just do that today.

To: Ploni who wrote (5060)	1/30/1998 11:48:00 AM
From: Joseph Hoane	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10479

A little tangential to FIBR at first. I do write about it later. Hi, Just forked out the $125. What is the most usefull thing here, besides this board? Any AI which is so successfully annoying would have to be very advanced. (Re: Craig is an AI.) I'm with you. Long FIBR, long CYMI, short YHOO. In opinion anyway. I don't hold CYMI right now because of all of the reports of cuts of capital spending from many silicon foundries. Maybe a short right now will make a little bit. Definitely a great company. I figure plenty of opportunity later, after FIBR has rocketed up a bit. (In my optimistic opinion.) An opposing view would be that anyone long sighted would invest in the next generation of equipment, but some of the Asian companies just don't have any money. Later, when the Asian flu is over, KLAC, AMAT, and one I need to research more, PRIA. Don't you think that the foundries' stocks, eg. NSM, MU, other DRAM, LSI, VLSI, AMD are a leading indicator for the capital equipment companies? YHOO seems over valued, but go to the www.fool.com (today) for a case for and against. I wish to contribute constructively to the FIBR discussion, so here are the factors in my analysis: 1. Growing market. Wowee. Hard to to wrong in this arena. 2. Buy dirt cheap. You just can't argue this one, assuming that Osicom is a legitimate company. IMO, once you do research, you find a wealth of products ~$120 million/ year in trailing sales and some incredible new products for the future. In addition, some of the aquisitions were outstanding companies in their own right. 3. Financials look terrible at first glance, but expenses can be explained by. a. Aquisition costs b. Aquisition integration costs c. R&D costs, from which we now see fruit. d. I really want to see the next anual report. I will be long until I see it. Then I hope to be convinced to stay long. 4. Insider selling. Do the officers really get their pay in stock? If so, this explains the insider selling. 5. Osicom stock buying/selling. a. Why did Osicom buy 25% of the shares last summer and then b. sell at a lower price later? Did they sell later? Did third quarter go unexpectedly badly and they just needed the cash? c. What is the true float RIGHT NOW? 6. Their business plan is a plan to take over the (networking) world. (See the last anual report.) They appear to be executing Phase II: Create excellent niche products to gain market share in the networking market. (my opinion and paraphrase.) They need to create a franchise name ala Warren Buffet. 7. The new products appear to be really fantastic. Will the 6 month lead on short haul Gigamux get their foot in the door and create economic goodwill? My money is on it, but I would like to understand this issue better. 8. Do they have cash/credit to execute? a. Credit rating?? b. Cash flow 1. Backlog into last quarter $20M and into December $27M looks great. 2. IQX-200 and Gigamux sales may have some impact THIS quarter. 3. The above should take off next quarter. 4. NET+ARM should do well after the 6 month lead in development time from clients. (This 6 month development time is a major advantage, if accurate. Osicom claims this process would normally take a year. A year or more is consistant with my experience doing hardware.) Any more major issues? My experience researching this company was a bigger smile the more I learned. I certainly wish to be shot down if I am wrong about anything. It will save me money in the long run. Joe Hoane