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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (53287)	10/26/2020 2:34:12 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	1 Recommendation Recommended By Return to Sender Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69241

Support for SP500 at 3200 and 3100 approximately by volume. DOW support levels at 27,000 and 25750 approximately. COMPQ right at support. Scary part of strong support is not till 2100.

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (53287)	10/26/2020 9:03:14 PM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 69241

Hi Johnny, IBM is interesting. Last July I sold an IBM 95 put that expired in august (44 days before expiration) when IBM hit $117.00 ish (July 7th). IBM continued to drop to $115.20 two days later and those puts went up to $1.27 that day. Today as IBM dropped well below $115 (112.22 low of $111.84)). Today the $95.00 puts which have not 44 days till expiration have 53 days till expiration. This morning 50 puts traded at 90.cents the bid ask now is .88 to 95 with 11 more puts trading at a higher price of .92 (while the price of the underlying stock was $112.22 vs the previous low of $115.20 ( three dollars lower and 53 days till expiration vs 42 back in July. So the puts is not as high with a lower price (although not in the money and with 11 more days time premium? Normally I 'd say that the retail owners of IBM stock are not as scared as they were back in July? Add to that more days before expiration. Now what's different is the close proximity of the election? Note to file: When Trump ran and won in 2016, the market went down for seven straight days of the 8 days before the election (this resulted in the SPX dropping 2.5%)., and then violently reversed up on the day before the election (nov 7th) - the election was on the 8th - market was closed). That launched a huge rally that ran into the next year January to February. That reversal day almost made up for the 2.5 % loss - it gained 2.23% in the SPX. If we go down 6 straight days ( today would be number two) before the election and reverse the day before the election, maybe those $95.00 puts get up to be $1.27 , or could well be a lot more, but for some reason the premium inflation of negative price action is not building as fast as it did in July. To me that defies logic. One last tid bit , the full moon comes on Saturday the 31st - that usually pulls prices down. I'm thinking I'll buy the close on Friday if it is down at the close - mebbe sell some $95 December puts or $90.00's. We are so much closer to Covid having passed the worst vs. the $90.56 print IBM did on March 23rd 2020. Just sayin. Bob