Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Follies who wrote (164587)	10/31/2020 10:20:41 PM
From: THE ANT	Respond to of 218465

It should be 140 k if you remove those who were hospice and died with COVID not from COVID But I think my prediction was through December

To: Follies who wrote (164587)

10/31/2020 11:06:24 PM

From: arun gera

1 Recommendation

Recommended By
marcher

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 218465

<Where is your prediction. Let’s see if it’s more accurate, 140,000 is very close.>

Some older discussions below.

From: THE ANT	5/9/2020 7:31:27 AM
	Read Replies (1) of 164593

If 15% of pregnant women in NY city were positive 6 weeks ago I suspect at least 25% of all New York city is positive now.It may be 30-35% as April 1 NYC had only 1/3 the active cases they have seen up to now. Also this group of young women was likely less than the 50 percentile in terms of vulnerability to exposure. Half way to heard immunity which JHH says takes at least 55-60%. This thing is long over before a vaccine. That does not mean it doesn't hang around in the background for a long time. Out of the way places will peak much later. My prediction 140K US deaths total a year from now livescience.com

On 5/9/2020 according to worldometers – USA Covid deaths 81579

To: THE ANT who wrote (157622)	5/9/2020 8:08:09 PM
From: arun gera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164593

New York city is today at Covid-19 mortality of about 0.25 percent (2500 deaths per million population). And it is not at herd immunity obviously as lots of people are still indoors. If the rest of USA saturates at 0.25 percent mortality, the numbers could be 800,000 deaths. How did you stop at just 140,000? -Arun

To: THE ANT who wrote (159759)	7/3/2020 1:35:45 PM
From: arun gera	Read Replies (2) of 164593

>You calculated 800K and me 140K Lets see> You said that 140K is it for the pandemic. I said that we will be close to that by July 4. The 800K is the uppermost number based on the worst case which was NY city. We hope it never gets as bad as NY city anywhere. But NJ, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island are already half as bad as NY city. And US overall is half of these states. -Arun

On 7/4/2020 according to worldometers – USA Covid deaths 132,591

To: TobagoJack who wrote (159782)	7/4/2020 7:59:33 AM
From: arun gera	2 Recommendations Read Replies (3) of 164593

<Presumably at some juncture the Ant and you shall know who is closer to being correct, as there logically can only be one of you, unless some overlooked vector(s) turns out to matter.> It is a question of equilibrium vs kinetics. Let me explain for those who are not chemists or engineers. When you are boiling water in your kitchen, it will reach equilibium at the boil at 100 degree C (with variations depending on the altitude above sealevel). Think of 100 degee C as the herd immunity equivalent. If your gas burner is at low, it takes longer to boil the water. That is kinetics - heat is spreading from the burning flame to the pot and then within the pot of water, It still boils at 100 degree C though. Similarly, you can reach herd immunity slower or faster. But where herd immunity (boiling point) is we do not exactly know. One way to guess where herd immunity is to see the worst case infection has been so far- which was NY city (about 2500 deaths per million). Thats where I have put the upper bound. With better medical treatment or weakening of the virus(hopefully) things may not get as bad. The US as a whole is only at 400 deaths per million so far. The water is boiling at a lower burner setting in rest of US, while it came to boil in I-95 corridor between Boston and DC faster. Just like as the water is getting hotter the longer it is on the burner you cannot visibly see the increasing temperature. When it reaches the boil, violent bubbling tells you that it is there. That marker seems to be around 100 deaths per million when bubbles start rising as they were doing in Florida last week. -Arun