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Technology Stocks : Applied Magnetics Corp -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Greg Jung who wrote (11359)	1/30/1998 12:02:00 PM
From: Jonathan Bird	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12298

Given the outlook, then, the market buys the disk drives? Or do the gutless shorts scramble for cover when the price doesn't get cut in half every earnings day? Any thoughts on the groupthink behind the DD stocks rise this am? Perhaps a clue can be found in something WDC said in their conference call. They said this oversupply cycle usually last 1-3 Qtrs. This QTR is the third Qtr. If you get enough people all thinking the oversupply usually last 3 Qtrs then you get the kind of thing we have going on today. There are two problems with this thinking. But the one I'm banking on is that I don't think anyone has convinced Fujitsu and Maxtor that enough is enough. I think these guys are going for market share and aren't even close to finished. How long can they go? How are they fairing? Questions without answers. In the worst case the US HDD secter may never return to its former glory. How long will it take until the market confronts this posibility is the question I have. Maybe not till more earnings warnings come out. Maybe a couple months. There were things NOT SAID in the WDC CC that are leeding me to believe they know more then they say. Jon Bird